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80 Common and Uncommon Errors in Company Valuation

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80 Common and Uncommon Errors in Company Valuation
80 common and uncommon errors in company valuation

80 common and uncommon errors in company valuation
Pablo Fernández PricewaterhouseCoopers Professor of Corporate Finance IESE Business School. University of Navarra. Camino del Cerro del Aguila 3. 28023 Madrid, Spain. Telephone 34-91-357 08 09. Fax 34-91-357 29 13. e-mail: fernandezpa@iese.edu

ABSTRACT
This paper contains a collection and classification of 80 errors seen in company valuations performed by financial analysts, investment banks and financial consultants. The author had access to most of the valuations referred to in this paper in his capacity as a consultant in company acquisitions, sales and mergers , and arbitrage processes. Some of the errors are taken from published reports by financial analysts. We classify the errors in six main categories: 1) Errors in the discount rate calculation and concerning the riskiness of the company; 2) Errors when calculating or forecasting the expected cash flows; 3) Errors in the calculation of the residual value; 4) Inconsistencies and conceptual errors; 5) Errors when interpreting the valuation; and 6) Organizational errors.

Keywords: valuation, company valuation, valuation errors JEL Classification: G12 , G31, M21

November 4, 2003

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80 common and uncommon errors in company valuation

This paper contains a classification of the 80 errors providing at least one example of each, taken from actual valuations. The sections of the paper are as follows: 1. Errors in the discount rate calculation and concerning the riskiness of the company 2. Errors when calculating or forecasting the expected cash flows 3. Errors in the calculation of the residual value 4. Inconsistencies and conceptual errors 5. Errors when interpreting the valuation 6. Organizational errors Appendix 1. List of the 80 errors Appendix 2. A valuation containing multiple errors using an ad hoc method Bibliography

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80 common and uncommon errors in company valuation

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References: Brealey, R.A. and S.C. Myers (2000), Principles of Corporate Finance. Sixth edition. McGraw-Hill, New York. Campa, J.M. and P. Fernández (2004), “Are calculated betas good for anything?”, IESE Working Paper. Copeland, T. E., T. Koller, and J. Murrin (2000), Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies. Third edition. New York: Wiley. Damodaran, A. (1994), Damodaran on Valuation. New York: John Wiley and Sons . Damodaran, A. (2001), The Dark Side of Valuation . New York: Financial Times-Prentice Hall. Dimoson, E., P. March and M. Staunton (2002), “Global Evidence on the Equity Risk Premium”, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, September. Durbin, E., and D. Ng (1999), “Uncovering Country Risk in Emerging Market Bond Prices”, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Paper: 639, July. Estrada, J. (2000), “The Cost of Equity in Emerging Markets: A Downside Risk Approach”, Emerging Markets Quarterly, Fall, 19-30. Fernández, P. (2004), “The value of tax shields is NOT equal to the present value of tax shields”, forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Economics . Fernández, P. (2003), “How to value a seasonal company discounting cash flows”, SSRN Working Paper. Fernández, P. (2002), Valuation Methods and Shareholder Value Creation. San Diego, CA: Academic Press. Godfrey, S. and R. Espinosa (1996), “A Practical Approach to Calculating Costs of Equity for Investment in Emerging Markets”, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Fall, 80-89. Hamon, J., and B. Jacquillat (1999), “Is there Value-added information in Liquidity and Risk Premiums?”, European Financial Management, November 1999, 5(3), 369-93. Kaminsky, G., and S.L. Schmukler (2002), “Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?”, Bank Economic Review , 2002, 16(2), 171-95. Knetz, P.J. and M.J. Ready (1997), “On the robustness of the size and book-to-market in crosssectional regressions”, The Journal of Finance, September, 52(4), 1355-1382. Lessard, D. (1996), “Incorporating Country Risk in the Valuation of Offshore Projects”, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance , Fall, 52-63. Mehra, R. (2003), “The equity premium: Why is it a puzzle?”, Financial Analysts Journal, January/February, 54-69. Mehra, R. and E. Prescott (1985), “The equity premium: A puzzle”, Journal of Monetary Economics 15(2), 145-161. Penman, S. H. (2001), Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation, New York: McGraw-Hill. Ruback, Richard S. (1986), “Calculating the Market Value of Risk-Free Cash Flows”, Journal of Financial Economics , March, 323-339. 27 80 common and uncommon errors in company valuation Ruback, R. (1995), “A note on capital cash flow valuation”, Harvard Business School, Case No. 9-295 069. Ruback, R. (2002), “Capital cash flows: a simple approach to valuing risky cash flows”, Financial Management 31, 85-103. Scholes, M. and J.T. Williams (1977), Estimating Betas from Nonsynchronous Data; Journal of Financial Economics , December 1977, 5(3), 309-27. Siegel, Jeremy (1998), Stocks for the Long Run. Second edition. New York : Irwin. Siegel Jeremy J. (1999), “The Shrinking Equity Premium”, Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall, 1017. Stowe, J.D., T.R. Robinson, J.E. Pinto and D.W. McLeavey (2002), Analysis of Equity Investments: Valuation. Baltimore: Association for Investment M anagement and Research. Wang, X. (2000), “Size Effect, Book-to-Market Effect, and Survival”, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, September-December, 10, 257-73. 28

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