Age & Gender Structure of Population in Hong Kong

SOCI110033.01
China’s Population and Development
Spring Term Paper

Age & Gender Structure of Population in Hong Kong

Lam Poon Hiu, Theresa

Summary
1. Abstract
2. Introduction
3. Background
4. Statistics and Data Interpretation
4.1 Overview
4.2 Age Structure
4.3 Sex Structure
5. Observations
6.1 Ageing population
6.2 Surplus women
6. Suggestions on Policy
7. Predictions
8. Conclusion
9. References

1. Abstract

Along with the social and economic development of Hong Kong during the past few decades, there are plenty of changes in the characteristics of population in Hong Kong. An analysis of the components of population change would be crucial for our understanding of the changes in Hong Kong’s population size and its age-sex composition. This also provides the basic information required for making assumptions in the population projections and for formulating population-related policies.

This term paper mainly utilizes the results of Population Census held by Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong Government in four respective years, namely 1991 Population Census, 2001 Population Census and 2011 Population Census. Together with statistics from other sources, this term paper aims to give a general review of the age and gender structure of population in Hong Kong.

This term paper also covers the key trends and phenomenon of Hong Kong’s population and hence explores their economic, social and political impacts on Hong Kong’s development. Specifically, it includes some comparisons of selected characteristics between Hong Kong women and men and between different age groups. The problems that are likely to incur, benefits that maybe brought about and predictions on the Hong Kong’s population development in future are also discussed in the paper. Lastly, this paper is concluding with suggested policy options to improve on Hong Kong’s current population-related policy in order to provide a balanced analysis.

Key Words: Ageing population, Marriage, Social-political, Economic, Cultural change
2. Introduction

Hong Kong, locates at East-Asia, is special administrative region of People’s Public of China. Though Hong Kong is small city with a land area of only 1,104 square kilometers, around one sixth of Shanghai city, there are more than 7.2 million people living in Hong Kong and it becomes one of the most densely populated city in world. Having a large amount of talented people and labor capitals, Hong Kong has successfully developed itself into the city with seventh highest per capita income in the world even Hong Kong itself does not own much natural resources.

Benefit from a British colonial background, Hong Kong has established the free port in early 20th century and which was a decisive opportunity making Hong Kong a major trading center from the start and attracting people from China and European countries. Until now, Hong Kong has already been serving as one of the major financial center in the world and its currency, Hong Kong dollar, is the eighth most traded currency in the world.

Apart from low taxation and free trade, Hong Kong is also characterized by its modern architecture in city’s center and highly developed transportation network with the public transport travelling rate exceeding 90 percent which is the highest in the world. The unique blend of eastern-western and past-present cultures attracting millions of tourists from all part of world to sightsee this shopping and food paradise and experience the nightlife here.

3. Background

The terminology “Asian Tigers” is used to refer Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, these highly free and developed Asian economies. These areas were notable for maintaining exceptionally high growth rates and rapid industrialization between the early 1960s and 1990s. By the 21st century, all four had developed into advanced and high-income economies, specializing in areas of competitive advantage. For instance, Hong Kong and Singapore become world-leading international financial centers, whereas South Korea and Taiwan are world leaders in manufacturing information technology.

Hong Kong
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Population growth rate
0.39
1.96
0.18
0.27
Birth rate
(per 1000)
7.58
7.91
8.33
8.61
Median Age
44.5
33.6
38.7
39.7
% Population Aged 65+
14.4
8.1%
12.3
11.6
Sex ratio
(Male: Female)
0.94 : 1
0.96 : 1
1 : 1
1 : 1

Given that the “Asian Tigers” earn comparable Gross Domestic Product and enjoy similar living standard, yet according to the 2013 CIA World Fact Book, Hong Kong has the highest median age, highest percentage of population aged 65 or over, lowest birth rate, smallest male to female ratio and the second-lowest population growth rate among these “Tigers ”. From these figures, some phenomenon or even problem related to fertility, sex and age structure of Hong Kong’s population are foreseeable.

4. Statistics and Data Interpretation

4.1 Overview
Table 4.1.1 Summary of key statistics from 1981-2011

1981
1991
2001
2011
Mid-year population
5 183 400
5 752 000
6 714 300
7 071 600
Crude birth rate
(Per 1000 population)
16.8
12.0
7.2
13.5
Crude death rate
(Per 1000 population)
4.8
5.0
5.0
6.0
Infant mortality rate
(Per 1000 live births)
9.7
6.4
2.6
1.3
Total fertility rate
(live births per 1000 women)
1933
1281
931
1204
Population growth rate
2.4
0.8
0.7
0.7

With reference to Table 4.1.1, we can observe two significant positive population trends. Firstly, Hong Kong’s mid-year population (or total population) has increased by 1.89 million and 36.5% over these 30 years. Secondly, owing to technological enhancement, the infant mortality rate has also reached the historical lowest level and is absolutely reduced by 8.4 and reduced by 87.0% relatively. However, the population growth has slowed down and which is reflected by a diminishing population growth rate. The population growth rate has dropped by 1.7 in absolute value and by 70.8% relatively in the past three decades. Note that trends of Crude birth rate and Total fertility rate will be discussed in the following paragraph.

Table 4.1.2 Live births by Mainland pregnant women from 2001 to 2011

Total live birth
By mainland women and whose spouses are not Hong Kong Resident
Year 2001
48 219
620 (1.29% of total live birth)
2006
65 626
16 044 (24.45% of total live birth)
2011
95 451
35 736 (37.44% of total live birth)

From Table 4.1.1, we can see that the crude birth rate has shown a declining trend from year 1981 to year 2001. The crude birth rate has reduced by 9.6 absolutely and 57.1% relatively over the two decades. Likewise, the total fertility rate has a declining trend from year 1981 to year 2001. The total fertility rate has reduced by 1002 absolutely and 51.8% relatively over the two decades.

Some may say that there is a population rebound recently since, compared to year 2001, the crude birth rate has increased by 6.3 and total fertility rate by 273 absolutely in year 2011. However, with reference to Table 4.1.2, we know this saying is not true and the so-called population rebound is caused by a higher number of mainland women chose to give birth in Hong Kong. Over these 10 years, the percentage of live birth by mainland women has rapidly increased by 36.15 in absolute percentage and 2800% in relative value which is really a huge increase.

All those statistics simply imply that the gentle population growth in birth rate and total fertility are not caused by having more new-born babies in Hong Kong, instead, it is caused by live births by mainland pregnant women, increasing number of immigrants, imported workers or/and one-way permit holders and a declining death rate of the population.

4.2 Age Structure
Table 4.2.1 Age Structure and Life Expectancy from 1981-2011

1981
1991
2001
2011
Median age
26.3
31.6
36.8
41.7
Percentage of population Aged 0 - 14

24.6

20.8

16.4

11.6
Aged 15 - 64
68.7
70.4
72.4
75.1
Aged 65 an d over
6.6
8.7
11.2
13.3
Life expectancy - Male
72.3
75.2
78.4
80.3
Life expectancy - Female
78.5
80.7
84.6
86.7

From Table 4.2.1, it is noted that Hong Kong population’s median age and life expectancies keep increasing over the past 30 years. The life expectancy for male has increased by 8 years and for 11.7% while the life expectancy for female has also increased by 8.2 years and for 10.4%. For median age, it is greatly increased by 15.4 years and for 58.6%. As median age is a division point that half of the population is younger than this age and half of the population is older than this age, we know that there are over 3.5 million Hong Kong residents are older than 41.7 years old in year 2011.

After some sorts of calculation, we know that the children dependency ratios are 358 for year 1981, 295 for year 1991, 226 for year 2001 and 155 for year 2011. The elderly dependency ratios are 97 for year 1981, 125 for year 1991, 155 for year 2001 and 177 for year 2011. Holding the cost for support children and elderly are constant throughout these 30 years, more people will be needed to support and share the cost for caring elderly, meanwhile less people will be needed to support and share the cost for carrying children. Obviously, higher percentage of social resources go to the elderly.
4.3 Sex Structure
Table 4.3.1 Sex ratio from 1981 to 2011

1981
1991
2001
2011
Total sex ratio (M : F)
1 : 0.95
1 : 0.96
1: 1.05
1 : 1.14
Sex ratio at birth
1 : 0.94
1 : 0.92
1 : 0.93
1 : 0.93

From Table 4.3.1, we can observe that the sex ratio at birth does not change much in these 30 years. However, the total sex ratio does change much during these 30 years. Before 2001, there are more males than females in the society; but after 2001, there are much more females than males in the society. The trend for total sex ratio is reversed. This may be caused by a higher life expectancy of females and net immigration of females as domestic helpers. This may lead to gender imbalance if the phenomenon is worse off.

Table 4.3.2 Major characteristics of both sex from 2001 to 2011

2001
2006
2011

M
F
M
F
M
F
Secondary School or up Attendance Rate
75
67.7
79.4
72.0
82.3
75.8
Distribution in Public University
45.6%
54.4%
45.9%
54.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Labor Force Participation Rate
73.0
50.8
70.9
52.6
68.4
53.0
Median Monthly Employment Earnings
$12,000
$10,000
$11,500
$9,300
$13,000
$11,000
From Table 4.3.2, we learn that both females and males are receiving more education compared with a decade before. And the percentage distribution in public university by sex simply refers that there are more girls than boys in universities and girls may be generally educated better than boys. There are declining trend for males’ labor participation and increasing trend for females’ labor participation. They are possibly caused by the cultural changes and educational changes. For median monthly employment monthly, females’ and males’ are very close. In 2001, there is 20% wage difference between female and male workers. However, in 2011, the wage difference in-between has decreased to 18.2%. These imply that there are more women who are more financially independent and have less reliance on men

Table 4.3.2 Marriage and Divorces from 2001 to 2011

2001
2006
2011

M
F
M
F
M
F
Crude Marriage Rate
9.9
9.5
15.9
14.1
17.6
15.5
Crude Divorce Rate
2.00
2.54
2.77
Mean Age for Marriage
30.2
27.5
31.2
28.2
31.2
28.9
Marriages with Mainlanders
18 380
2 359
28 145
6 483
20 167
5 865

From Table 4.3.2, we can observe that the crude marriage rate has a constant increase. For males, the crude marriage rate has increased by 7.7 % in a decade while females’ crude marriage rate has increased by 6 % only. The enlarging marriage rate difference implies less males are married with local females. This deduction also supported by figures for number of marriages with mainlanders. The mean age for marriage and crude divorce rate also increase constantly which are probably induced by societal and cultural changes.
5. Observations
5.1 Ageing population

Summarizing from above tables, we learnt that Hong Kong has an increasing median age, an increasing life expectancy, a declining population growth rate and a declining birth rate. These are the definiens for an ageing population. More specifically, an ageing population is arisen from increasing longevity (i.e. more surviving older people and higher mean age of population) and declining fertility (i.e. reduction in number of babies and younger people). Surely, it is not a new phenomenon in developed countries/cities.

Due a higher general living standard, Hong Kong people enjoy better materials and living environment. With respect to a higher general education level, people have better knowledge in health lifestyles and preventing diseases. In addition, with those technical improvements in medical facilities and reform of social healthcare system, Hong Kong residents are more protected. That’s why they can generally live longer.

Meanwhile, suffering from serious inflation recently, the price level in Hong Kong becomes higher and higher. The cost for raising children becomes significantly high. Since females are more educated and financially independent now, they may postpone their age for marriage and have fewer kids in order to have better personal or career development. Because of a Britain colonial background, the social status for female is promoted and is particularly high in Hong Kong compared with other Asian countries. Therefore, for Hong Kong couples, even they get a female baby as first kid, they may not continue to give birth till a male baby is born. These are reasons that explain why Hong Kong couples consider to have few babies or even none.

However, ageing population will not be a beneficial phenomenon to Hong Kong, it creates loads of affective problems.

Firstly, both absolute and relative working population fall, the overall productivity of Hong Kong decreases and leading to the deceleration of Hong Kong’s economic growth. Hong Kong may not be able to maintain its comparative advantages to other comparable countries like Korea and Singapore. At worst, foreign investment may be withdrawn from Hong Kong and talents may leave Hong Kong going to more prosperous cities.

Secondly, there are needs to largely increase spending on elderly healthcare and welfare services. There is no doubt that Hong Kong’s existing healthcare system is already overburdened. Allocated more medical resources to elderly concurrently means a reduction in resources to other types of patient and which is unfair in nature. Also, this could be a large financial burden to Hong Kong’s government. Though Hong Kong’s government is running a budget surplus now, no one know what would happen when the number of taxpayers has greatly reduced and the loss of competitiveness of Hong Kong itself due to an ageing population. As discussed previously, the elderly dependency ratio continues to increase in past few decades, this also implies a larger financial burden to current and future taxpayers.

To lessen the ageing population, Hong Kong government has set up a working group consists of scholars, experts and Treasury Branch to explore ways to make more comprehensive planning for public finances in order to cope with the ageing population and long-term commitments. Also, the government is proposing the introduction of a series of measures like financial incentives to encourage childbearing for a better fertility rate.
5.2 Surplus Women

Summarizing from the above tables, we learnt that the total sex ratio becomes less balanced and number of marriages with mainlanders is quite significant

Surplus Women is indeed a new terminology that refers to excessive unmarried women. In Hong Kong, it particularly represents those unmarried females age around 30 years old and with good monthly employment incomes.

Affected by Chinese traditions, Hong Kong women tend to marry up which means they ideally want their partners are better than them in all aspects, such as with higher education and higher monthly income. However, as mentioned previously, the education level for females has increased constantly and there are even more of them go to universities than males do. Also, the difference in monthly employment income between women and men are decreasing. Therefore, the pool has become smaller when women’s criteria are so selective and women’s qualification is so good. So, difficulties to find partners to match has greatly increased.

As a result of better education system and development of feminism, the social status for female becomes higher as time goes by. Female have developed now a stronger financial independence and are better protected by the law and the society. Owing to feminism, female have also developed a stronger desire to expand their social influence so that they would put more time on career, study or wealth investment rather on family and love affairs. Therefore, with reference to Table 4.3.2, the trend for late marriage is reflected by the increasing mean age of marriage.

In fact, having more women in society would not be that problematic, but having a gender imbalance would not be good for society. The major influence would be about matching (i.e. large difficulties in finding partners) and problems of declining marriage rate and declining birth rate may be induced from it.

Personally, I am neutral to the phenomenon of Surplus Women, however, in the society, there are still lots of people are discussing on this topic. Usually, the unmarried ladies will be labelled or even be discriminated against. However, influenced by the traditional thoughts, the general public are likely to perceive that it must be women’s faults, for example having bad temper, poor living habits, too selective and so on, for having no marriage in an embarrassing age of early 30 years old. Middle or Early middle aged women’s image are greatly affected and it may harm the society’s harmony.

As a result of matching problem, the recent number of marriages with Mainlanders has been increasing rapidly. The total number for marriages with Mainlanders has increased for 25.5%, from 20,739 cases to 26,032 cases in a decade. On the one hand, Hong Kong-Mainland marriage benefits Hong Kong by improving its overall population and bringing more labor force for production; On the other hand, more Hong Kong-Mainland marriages intensify the cultural conflicts between Hong Kong people and Mainlanders.

Indeed, there are quite a lot of media coverage on fake marriages between Mainlanders and Hong Kong people, old man marries with young woman, Mainlanders’ immediate application for Comprehensive Social Security Assistance after arriving Hong Kong and so on. These all worsen the Hong Kong people’s impression on Mainland and Mainlander which will definitely be a significant social and political problem.
7. Suggestions on Policy

To ease the problem of the aging population, Hong Kong Government should execute sustainable population policy strategies that include the following five aspects:

First is to increase the quantity of the labor force by drawing more people into the labor market. To be specific, female homemakers and early retirees are the key target groups. Helping new arrivals from the Mainland, persons with disabilities and ethnic minorities join the job market can provide the much needed boost to Hong Kong’s labor force.

Second is to enhance the quality of the labor force by improving education and training and minimizing skills mismatch. Government can put more resources on vocational education and encourage businesses to move up the value chain and increase job diversity.

Third is to adopt more proactive approach for attracting global talents and bringing back Hong Kong people who used to live or study abroad. A more effective importation of labor system without harming the interests of local workers should also be advocated.

Fourth is to foster a supportive environment in which individuals’ aspiration to form and raise families can be fulfilled as far as possible. By offering more family support, more local families may give more births injecting new blood for Hong Kong’s population.

Fifth is to gear up the community to embrace the positive opportunities of an ageing society, as future generations of the elderly are better educated, healthier and financially more independent. Retirement age can be raised and work limitation on retired workers should also be annulled.
8. Predictions

Utilizing the above statistics, plenty of predictions on Hong Kong’s population can be generated and thus several population trends for Hong Kong are foreseeable.

First, as the continuation of the last few decades, the median age, life expectancy and percentage of population aged 65 and above will be constantly increasing, meanwhile the crude birth rate and population grow rate will be constantly decreasing. Therefore, the problem of ageing population will still be very severe even if the Hong Kong government is proposing some measures for it.

Secondly, as time goes by, the school attendance rate and median monthly employment income for both sex will be higher and be more equalized. Females will then become more comparable to males in terms of many different abilities. Hence the social status for females are expected to be stabilized at high position or even be improved in the future.

Thirdly, since Hong Kong Government makes no attempt to cope with the problem of gender imbalance, the problem strives matching difficulties and together with the cultural or traditional changes, they eventually lead to a higher mean age for marriage and number of marriages with mainlanders for both sex.

Lastly, although the change on crude marriage rate may increase or decrease in near future, the number of surplus women should be maintained at high level due to changes in cultural values of females and difficulties in matching. The sex ratio (i.e. Male to Female) is also expected to be smaller along with the social development and development of feminism.

9. Conclusion

With increasing degree of capitalization and medical improvement, life expectancy has no doubt to be increasing in Hong Kong, just like other economically developed cities and other “Asian Tigers”. However, if the life expectancy can grow with the population growth rate and birth rate, then the ageing population may be avoided in Hong Kong.

Labor capital is one of the most important treasure owned by Hong Kong and Hong Kong would not have been that successful in absence of it. Only through a better and comprehensive population policy, will Hong Kong sustain its economic and social development in such a cruel environment without natural resources.

In conclusion, to keep Hong Kong’s competitiveness and leading position among Asian countries and cities, aging population and gender imbalance are real problems that must be addressed by Hong Kong Government in whichever way it is seen.

Number of words: 3853

9. Reference

1. Hong Kong, Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong 2. Four Asian Tigers, Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers 3. Demographics for Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea, Work Bank Data http://data.worldbank.org/ 4. Page 1, 7-14, 38 of Demographic Trends in Hong Kong 1981 – 2011
Published by Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Government

5. Page 2-12 of The Characteristics of Women and Men, 2011
Published by Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Government

6. Page 66-78, 237-242 of Women and Men in Hong Kong Key Statistics, 2013 Edition
Published by Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Government

7. Surplus Women, Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surplus_women 8. Population policy – Thoughts for HK http://www.news.gov.hk/en/record/html/2013/10/20131025_111958.shtml 10. Appendix

Population Pyramid in year 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011

References: (per 1000) 7.58