By Austin Murphy*
________________________________________________________________________
*by Austin Murphy, Professor of Finance, Oakland University, SBA, Rochester, MI
48309-4493 (248-370-2125; jamurphy@oakland.edu).
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1295344
Abstract
This research evaluates the fundamental causes of the current financial crisis. Close financial analysis indicates that theoretical modeling based on unrealistic assumptions led to serious problems in mispricing in the massive unregulated market for credit default swaps that exploded upon catalytic rises in residential mortgage defaults. Recent academic research implies solutions to the crisis that are appraised to be far less costly than a bailout of investors who made poor financial decisions with respect to credit analysis. JEL: G11, G12, G13, G14
1
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1295344
An Analysis of the Financial Crisis of 2008: Causes and Solutions
The financial crisis in 2008 is of such epic proportions that even astronomical amounts spent to address the problem have so far been insufficient to resolve the it.
Besides the well-publicized $700 billion approved by Congress, the Federal Reserve has attempted to bail out institutions and markets with about $1.3 trillion in investments in various risky assets, including loans to otherwise bankrupt institutions and collateralized debt obligations like those backed by subprime mortgages that are defaulting at rapid rates (Morris, 2008). A further $900 billion is being proposed in lending to large corporations (Aversa, 2008), making a total of nearly $3 trillion in bailout money so far, without even counting the massive sum of corporate debts guaranteed by the U.S. government in the last year. An analysis of the fundamental causes of this “colossal failure” that has put “the entire financial
References: E. Altman. “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy.” Journal of Finance 23 (1968), 589-609. J. Aversa. “Fed Eyes Plan to Fund Short-Term Business Loans.” Associated Press (October 7, 2008). Boni, L., 2006. Strategic Delivery Failures in U.S. Equity Markets. Journal of Financial Markets 9, 1-26. M. Buchanan. “Crazy Money.” NewScientist (July 19, 2008), 32-35. J. Burns. “Former Ratings-Firm Officials Blame Conflicts for Rosy Views.” Wall Street Journal (October 23, 2008), A4. J. Callaghan and A. Murphy. "An Empirical Test of a Stochastic Cash Flow Theory of Evaluating Credit." Advances in Financial Planning and Forecasting 8 (1998), 31-51. F. Duffee. “Estimating the Price of Default Risk.” Review of Financial Studies 12 (1999), 197-226. E. Elton, M. Gruber, D. Agrawal, and C. Mann. “Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds.” Journal of Finance 56 (2001), 247-277. G. Favel. “Sold Short.” Futures (November 2008), 32. FinancialWire. “StockGate: The Tune May Have Changed, But the Song is the Same.” Investors Business Daily (June 25, 2004). FinancialWire, 2005. “Regulation SHO Gets Confuser and Confuser as Listing ‘Disappear’.” Investors Business Daily (January 28, 2005). G. Gigerenzer. Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious. Viking: New York (2007). M. Glantz and J. Mun. The Banker’s Handbook on Credit Risk. Elsevier: Burlington (2008). B. Jameson. “The Blunders that Led to Catastrophe.” NewScientist (September 27, 2008), 8-9. C. Jones and O. Lamont. “Short-sales Constraints and Stock Returns.” Journal of Financial Economics 66 (2002), 207-239. R. Merton. “On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: A Further Note.” Journal of Finance 29 (1974), 449-470. G. Morgenson. “Behind Insurer’s Crisis: Blind Eye to a Web of Risk.” New York Times (September 28, 2008). C. Morris. “Fed 's $1.6 Trillon Bet: The $700-Billion Wall Street Bailout Was Only the Half of It.” Washington Independent (October 14, 2008). A. Moses and S. Harrington. “Company Bond Risk Surges on Argentina Default Concerns.”Bloomberg (October 23, 2008). A. Murphy. “A Discounted Cash-Flow Model of Fixed-Income Securities Subject to Multiple Calls." Southern Economic Journal 55 (1988), 21-36. A. Murphy. Scientific Investment Analysis. Quorum Books: Westport (2000). NewScientist. “Crunchonomics.” July 19 (2008a), 5. NewScientist. “Blinded by Science.” September 27 (2008b), 5. PIA Connection. “Congress Exempted Credit Default Swaps from State Gaming Laws in 2000.” October 15 (2008). R. Shiller. “Homes are a Risky Long-Term Investment.” TIAA-CREF (Summer 2005), 19-22. E. Simon. “Meltdown 101: What are Credit Default Swaps?” Kansas City Star (October 26, 2008). Weiss, G. “The Mob is Busier than the Feds Think.” Business Week (December 15, 1997), 130. 22, 2008), Yost. “AP IMPACT: Mortgage Firm Arranged Stealth Impact.” Associated Press (October 20, 2008).