An Inside View of Telecom Trends in the Internet Age
The Americas Trident Digest – ‘An inside view of Telecom Trends in the Internet Age’
1Q12 Issue
A 2011 LOOK FORWARD
Trying to forecast future network requirements is problematic. Most such efforts look back at historical data, make some assumptions and then statistically forecast forward. This works as long as our behaviors are stable or at least changing in accordance with an established pattern. But humans are notoriously unpredictable and while the shortcomings of such a process are understood we feel obliged to make these predictions anyway. The increasingly accelerating rate of technological change further complicates our task. In fact, we seem to be in a period of exponential technological progress – one where new devices and ways of interacting with the network come online faster than the implications of these technologies can be fully understood. This poses a significant challenge to looking forward because “exponential growth looks like nothing is happening, and then suddenly you get this explosion at the end.”1 In an effort to change the paradigm and look at the problem differently, we spoke with a number of academics at several higher education institutions. The intent was to develop a consensus-driven picture of technologies that will impact the network. By better understanding the evolution of these network shaping technologies, we can better understand the stresses that will be placed on a future network, the power that will be available over the network, and how all of this will reshape and redefine the world around us. During this process, we met with academics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), University of Toronto, Georgia Institute of Technology, UC Berkley, Carnegie Mellon, and Stanford. The view from these institutions is that three critical areas are undergoing radical change -human-computer interfaces, cloud, and network devices. The changes in these areas will ultimately serve to redefine our view of future
1Q12 Issue
A 2011 LOOK FORWARD
Trying to forecast future network requirements is problematic. Most such efforts look back at historical data, make some assumptions and then statistically forecast forward. This works as long as our behaviors are stable or at least changing in accordance with an established pattern. But humans are notoriously unpredictable and while the shortcomings of such a process are understood we feel obliged to make these predictions anyway. The increasingly accelerating rate of technological change further complicates our task. In fact, we seem to be in a period of exponential technological progress – one where new devices and ways of interacting with the network come online faster than the implications of these technologies can be fully understood. This poses a significant challenge to looking forward because “exponential growth looks like nothing is happening, and then suddenly you get this explosion at the end.”1 In an effort to change the paradigm and look at the problem differently, we spoke with a number of academics at several higher education institutions. The intent was to develop a consensus-driven picture of technologies that will impact the network. By better understanding the evolution of these network shaping technologies, we can better understand the stresses that will be placed on a future network, the power that will be available over the network, and how all of this will reshape and redefine the world around us. During this process, we met with academics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), University of Toronto, Georgia Institute of Technology, UC Berkley, Carnegie Mellon, and Stanford. The view from these institutions is that three critical areas are undergoing radical change -human-computer interfaces, cloud, and network devices. The changes in these areas will ultimately serve to redefine our view of future