Applying Dependency Structure Matrix and Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Change in Construction Project
APPLYING DEPENDENCY STRUCTURE MATRIX AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TO PREDICT CHANGE IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT
ZHEN-YU ZHAO, QIAN-LEI LV, WEI-YANG YOU
School of Business Administration, North China Electric Power Univ., Beijing 102206,China
E-MAIL: zhaozhenyuxm@263.net, seawolf47@163.com, ywy132639@163.com
Abstract:
Change management is an important aspect in construction project management, as changes constitute the main cause of schedule delay, cost overrun and other distributions. Many change management systems has been developed to minimize the impacts of change or facilitate changes management. However, change should be predicted as early as possible, and the problems can be identified and beneficial modification can be made as soon as possible. In this paper, an change prediction system using activity-based Dependency Structure Matrix (DSM) was developed to facilitate managing change, which can identify the possible changes in construction project. The outputs of the system for an application have represented the main function of the system. Methods about how to acquire date required for proposed system are also presented. The proposed system can be helpful for project managers to manage change more efficiently.
Keywords:
Change prediction; project management; Dependency structure matrix; Monte Carlo Simulation
1. Introduction
Changes are very common issues in construction project especially in construct process. Any additions, deletions, or other revision to project goals and scope are considered to be changes, whether they increase or decrease the project cost or schedule [4]. In a complex construct process, the cause for change is more complicate. Most commonly, lack of timely and effective communication, lack of integration, uncertainty, a changing environment, and increasing project complexity are the drivers of project change [17]. Because of the cause 's complexity, the management of change in construct process is very difficult. However,
ZHEN-YU ZHAO, QIAN-LEI LV, WEI-YANG YOU
School of Business Administration, North China Electric Power Univ., Beijing 102206,China
E-MAIL: zhaozhenyuxm@263.net, seawolf47@163.com, ywy132639@163.com
Abstract:
Change management is an important aspect in construction project management, as changes constitute the main cause of schedule delay, cost overrun and other distributions. Many change management systems has been developed to minimize the impacts of change or facilitate changes management. However, change should be predicted as early as possible, and the problems can be identified and beneficial modification can be made as soon as possible. In this paper, an change prediction system using activity-based Dependency Structure Matrix (DSM) was developed to facilitate managing change, which can identify the possible changes in construction project. The outputs of the system for an application have represented the main function of the system. Methods about how to acquire date required for proposed system are also presented. The proposed system can be helpful for project managers to manage change more efficiently.
Keywords:
Change prediction; project management; Dependency structure matrix; Monte Carlo Simulation
1. Introduction
Changes are very common issues in construction project especially in construct process. Any additions, deletions, or other revision to project goals and scope are considered to be changes, whether they increase or decrease the project cost or schedule [4]. In a complex construct process, the cause for change is more complicate. Most commonly, lack of timely and effective communication, lack of integration, uncertainty, a changing environment, and increasing project complexity are the drivers of project change [17]. Because of the cause 's complexity, the management of change in construct process is very difficult. However,
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