Asbestos Case
UK ASBESTOS - THE DEFINITIVE GUIDE
Working Party: Brian Gravelsons, Wendy Hawes, Sylwia Jakubowski, Anthony Kent, Julian Lowe (Chairman), Andy Macnair, Darren Michaels, Anita Morton, David Sanders, Philip Towell, Andy Whiting, James Widdows, Anthony Williams Keywords: Summary: The estimated future cost to the UK insurance industry of asbestos-related claims is £4£10b. Well over half of this relates to mesothelioma claims, numbers of which are predicted to continue to rise for the next ten years. By contrast, claims for other asbestos-related diseases, such as asbestosis, are expected to fall in the coming years, as the number of claims mirrors the declining use of asbestos since the 1970s. Most estimates of the future number of mesothelioma claims are based on the latest (2003) HSE projections. We have reproduced the HSE projections in a spreadsheet model to help practitioners understand the HSE model. This highlights the sensitivity of the projections to a number of key parameters. In particular, the future number of mesothelioma deaths is very dependent on how the disease continues to develop at older (80+) ages, with over half of all claims being in respect of those aged over 80 by the year 2020. The future number of mesothelioma deaths could easily be considerably higher or lower than the current projections, depending on the experience of this age group. We suspect that the variability of the HSE projections is greater than most practitioners who use the model would currently assume to be the case. In producing our estimates, we have used data collected via an anonymous survey from all major UK insurers, representing the majority of the UK market. We have also developed a simplified model of the emergence of asbestos-related diseases, to help project claim numbers for non-mesothelioma diseases. Our data survey has highlighted a range of practices in recording relevant information regarding asbestos-related claims. With such potentially large numbers at stake,
Working Party: Brian Gravelsons, Wendy Hawes, Sylwia Jakubowski, Anthony Kent, Julian Lowe (Chairman), Andy Macnair, Darren Michaels, Anita Morton, David Sanders, Philip Towell, Andy Whiting, James Widdows, Anthony Williams Keywords: Summary: The estimated future cost to the UK insurance industry of asbestos-related claims is £4£10b. Well over half of this relates to mesothelioma claims, numbers of which are predicted to continue to rise for the next ten years. By contrast, claims for other asbestos-related diseases, such as asbestosis, are expected to fall in the coming years, as the number of claims mirrors the declining use of asbestos since the 1970s. Most estimates of the future number of mesothelioma claims are based on the latest (2003) HSE projections. We have reproduced the HSE projections in a spreadsheet model to help practitioners understand the HSE model. This highlights the sensitivity of the projections to a number of key parameters. In particular, the future number of mesothelioma deaths is very dependent on how the disease continues to develop at older (80+) ages, with over half of all claims being in respect of those aged over 80 by the year 2020. The future number of mesothelioma deaths could easily be considerably higher or lower than the current projections, depending on the experience of this age group. We suspect that the variability of the HSE projections is greater than most practitioners who use the model would currently assume to be the case. In producing our estimates, we have used data collected via an anonymous survey from all major UK insurers, representing the majority of the UK market. We have also developed a simplified model of the emergence of asbestos-related diseases, to help project claim numbers for non-mesothelioma diseases. Our data survey has highlighted a range of practices in recording relevant information regarding asbestos-related claims. With such potentially large numbers at stake,
Bibliography: Source: U.S. Bureau of Mines and U.S. Geological Survey Minerals Yearbook chapter on asbestos, 1900 to 2001 The involvement of the main asbestos producers round the world over the last hundred years or so is summarised below 1. World totals, U.S. data, and estimated data are rounded to no more than three significant digits; may not add to totals shown. 2. Marketable fibre production. Table includes data available through April 8, 2003.