Atm Network
The National Center of Excellence Federal Aviation Administration
For Aviation Operations Research
2nd National Airspace System Infrastructure Management Conference
NAS Infrastructure in Transition
June 13, 2006 University of California Washington Center Washington, DC
115 West Avenue • Jenkintown, PA 19046 • USA ℡ 215-884-7500 • 215-884-1385 richg@gra-inc.com
Richard Golaszewski GRA, Incorporated
Acknowledgement
The following presentation includes work performed by a number of organizations and persons supporting the JPDO Evaluation and Analysis Division
GRA, Incorporated
GRA, Incorporated
June 13, 2006
1
Background
Questions on value of NGATS
Funding bodies Users
Potential need for regulatory changes
Require benefit-cost analysis (BCA)
Justification for investment program
NASA R&D FAA JRC OMB 300
Sound program management must understand benefits and costs to government and users Need to consider interdependencies
User equipage Benefits estimates
GRA, Incorporated
June 13, 2006
2
Approach to Long-Term Investment Analysis
Understand performance of future system without NGATS investment
What is already underway (e.g., OEP)? Secular improvement in ATM system productivity
Models abstract futures that can be highly divergent
2 X capacity in 2025 vs. 3 X capacity in 2025
Order of investment can affect results (some capacity benefits overlap) Marginal delays without investment can be quite large—expand demand while holding capacity constant In sector with very long lived physical assets (such as aircraft), sequencing and coordination of implementation plans are essential
GRA, Incorporated
June 13, 2006
3
Cost-Benefit Approach for JPDO
Differences from internal FAA cost benefit analysis
Multi-agency Longer time horizon Not only discounted “cash-flow” analysis (traditional internal FAA process)
Provides reference and context for all agencies participating in NGATS Provides platform for input of
For Aviation Operations Research
2nd National Airspace System Infrastructure Management Conference
NAS Infrastructure in Transition
June 13, 2006 University of California Washington Center Washington, DC
115 West Avenue • Jenkintown, PA 19046 • USA ℡ 215-884-7500 • 215-884-1385 richg@gra-inc.com
Richard Golaszewski GRA, Incorporated
Acknowledgement
The following presentation includes work performed by a number of organizations and persons supporting the JPDO Evaluation and Analysis Division
GRA, Incorporated
GRA, Incorporated
June 13, 2006
1
Background
Questions on value of NGATS
Funding bodies Users
Potential need for regulatory changes
Require benefit-cost analysis (BCA)
Justification for investment program
NASA R&D FAA JRC OMB 300
Sound program management must understand benefits and costs to government and users Need to consider interdependencies
User equipage Benefits estimates
GRA, Incorporated
June 13, 2006
2
Approach to Long-Term Investment Analysis
Understand performance of future system without NGATS investment
What is already underway (e.g., OEP)? Secular improvement in ATM system productivity
Models abstract futures that can be highly divergent
2 X capacity in 2025 vs. 3 X capacity in 2025
Order of investment can affect results (some capacity benefits overlap) Marginal delays without investment can be quite large—expand demand while holding capacity constant In sector with very long lived physical assets (such as aircraft), sequencing and coordination of implementation plans are essential
GRA, Incorporated
June 13, 2006
3
Cost-Benefit Approach for JPDO
Differences from internal FAA cost benefit analysis
Multi-agency Longer time horizon Not only discounted “cash-flow” analysis (traditional internal FAA process)
Provides reference and context for all agencies participating in NGATS Provides platform for input of