ASSIGNMENT # 1 (Total 100 points)
Due on Jan. 28, 2014 (Tuesday)
(Write your name, student #, section # in which you are registered)
Q1. (Total 25 points)
Joanna is currently working a total of 8 hours per day to produce 270 dolls. She thinks that by changing the paint used for the facial features and fingernails, she can increase the rate to 360 dolls per day. Total material cost for each doll is approximately $3.50; she has to spend $40 in the necessary supplies (expendables) per day; energy costs are assumed to be only $4.00 per day; and she makes $10 per hour for her time.
a) Viewing this from a total (multifactor) productivity perspective, what is her productivity at present and what is her productivity with the new paint in terms of dolls per dollar? (15 points)
b) If she uses the new paint, by what amount could Joanna’s material costs per doll increase without reducing total (multifactor) productivity? (10 points)
Q2. (Total 50 points)
Suppose you (or your group) are the manager of a company trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecasts for each given forecasting method and then choose the best one to do the forecasts for the future. Actual Month Demand 1 62
2 65
3 68
4 70
5 72
6 74
a. Calculate the simple 3-month moving average forecast for periods 4-6. (5 points)
b. Calculate the weighted 3-month moving average using weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for periods 4-6. (5 points)
c. Calculate the exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2-6 using an initial forecast (F1) 62, and an of 0.30. (10 points)
d. Calculate the double exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2-6 using an initial trend forecast (T1) of 2.0, and initial exponential smoothing forecast (S1) of 60 an of