Business Modelling
Business Modelling for Decision Making
Version 1.0
Flexible Learning
Helping you bring Learning to Life
Published by The University of Sunderland The publisher endeavours to ensure that all its materials are free from bias or discrimination on grounds of religious or political belief, gender, race or physical ability. These course materials are produced from paper derived from sustainable forests where the replacement rate exceeds consumption. The copying, storage in any retrieval system, transmission, reproduction in any form or resale of the course materials or any part thereof without the prior written permission of the University of Sunderland is an infringement of copyright and will result in legal proceedings. © University of Sunderland 2008 Every effort has been made to trace all copyright owners of material used in this module but if any have been inadvertently overlooked, the University of Sunderland will be please to make the necessary arrangement at the first opportunity. These materials have been produced by the University of Sunderland Business School in conjunction with Resource Development International.
Business Modelling for Decision Making
Contents
How to use this workbook Unit 1 Decision Tree Analysis
Introduction Basic probability Decision trees Summary Appendix 1 1 5 24 25
Unit 2 Discrete Simulation
Introduction The Simulation Process Summary Appendix – Pivot Tables 29 29 63 64
Unit 3 Linear Programming
Introduction Worked Example Summary 65 72 86
Unit 4 Optimisation
Introduction Linear Equations Non Linear Equations Summary 89 89 91 130
University of Sunderland
Unit 5 Basic Forecasting Techniques
Introduction Summary 131 155
Unit 6 Inventory Control
Introduction Types of Stock Just-in-time (JIT) 157 157 181
Unit 7 Sampling Theory and Statistical Inference
Introduction Hypothesis Testing Two Tailed Tests Hypothesis Tests of the Population Proportion (p) Confidence Intervals Chi Squared Test Summary
Version 1.0
Flexible Learning
Helping you bring Learning to Life
Published by The University of Sunderland The publisher endeavours to ensure that all its materials are free from bias or discrimination on grounds of religious or political belief, gender, race or physical ability. These course materials are produced from paper derived from sustainable forests where the replacement rate exceeds consumption. The copying, storage in any retrieval system, transmission, reproduction in any form or resale of the course materials or any part thereof without the prior written permission of the University of Sunderland is an infringement of copyright and will result in legal proceedings. © University of Sunderland 2008 Every effort has been made to trace all copyright owners of material used in this module but if any have been inadvertently overlooked, the University of Sunderland will be please to make the necessary arrangement at the first opportunity. These materials have been produced by the University of Sunderland Business School in conjunction with Resource Development International.
Business Modelling for Decision Making
Contents
How to use this workbook Unit 1 Decision Tree Analysis
Introduction Basic probability Decision trees Summary Appendix 1 1 5 24 25
Unit 2 Discrete Simulation
Introduction The Simulation Process Summary Appendix – Pivot Tables 29 29 63 64
Unit 3 Linear Programming
Introduction Worked Example Summary 65 72 86
Unit 4 Optimisation
Introduction Linear Equations Non Linear Equations Summary 89 89 91 130
University of Sunderland
Unit 5 Basic Forecasting Techniques
Introduction Summary 131 155
Unit 6 Inventory Control
Introduction Types of Stock Just-in-time (JIT) 157 157 181
Unit 7 Sampling Theory and Statistical Inference
Introduction Hypothesis Testing Two Tailed Tests Hypothesis Tests of the Population Proportion (p) Confidence Intervals Chi Squared Test Summary