CASE PROBLEM 2 FORCASTING LOST SALES

DECISION SCIENCE
MGT3050

CASE PROBLEM
Sem ,1 2014– 2015

FORCASTING LOST SALES

Instructor:
PROFESSOR DR. RAFIKUL ISLAM
Section-4

Prepared by:

1. MD. RAFIQUL ISLAM 1133077
2. MD. WASIUL KARIM 1125337
3. NAHID HASAN 1215389

An estimate of sales had there been no hurricane :
Answer to the question number -1
The given data used for the forecast is the Carlson sales data for 48 months. We used the trend and seasonal method. Bellow the techniques are given to estimate the seasonal method.

Months
Sales
Quarter M.A
Centred M.A
Seasonal irregular component
2002
September
1.71

October
1.90

November
2.74

December
4.20

January
1.45

February
1.80

2.242

March
2.03

2.2498
0.902

2.2575

April
1.99

2.2673
0.878

2.277

May
2.32

2.2685
1.0227

2.262

June
2.20

2.2605
0.973

2.259

July
2.13

2.2945
0.928

2.33

August
2.43

2.334
1.0411
2003

2.338

September
1.90

2.3375
0.8128

2.337

October
2.13

2.347
0.9075

2.357

November
2.56

2.36
1.0847

2.363

December
4.16

2.3603
1.7625

2.3575

January
2.31

2.3633
0.9774

2.369137

February
1.89

2.3600685
0.8008

2.351

March
2.02

2.3505
0.8594

2.35

April
2.23

2.3567
0.9462

2.363333

May
2.39

2.3747
1.0064

2.386

June
2.14

2.381
0.8988

2.376

July
2.27

2.3685
0.9584

2.361

August
2.21

2.3651
0.9344
2004

2.369167

September
1.89

2.3601
0.8008

2.351

October
2.29

2.386
0.9598

2.421

November
2.83

2.4285
1.1653

2.436

December
4.04

2.4476
1.6506

2.459137

January
2.31

2.4721
0.9344

2.485

February
1.99

2.4896
0.7993

2.494167

March
2.42

2.5101
0.9641

2.526

April
2.45

2.5365
0.9659

2.547

May
2.57

2.5525
1.0069

2.558

June
2.42

2.571
0.9413

2.584

July
2.40

2.5945
0.9250

2.605

August
2.50

2.7005
0.9258
2005

2.796

September
2.09

2.724
0.7673

2.652

October
2.54

2.653
0.9574