Case Study: Aging Workforce

The Orioles are an aging team. Their good players are quickly becoming either free agents or expensive while the farm has been unable to make significant contributions over the past few years. As a result, the Orioles can only improve their team by spending money, but are already spending $150 million. Over the last week, Camden Depot writers have illustrated how the Orioles will have a difficult challenge just trying to maintain the status quo, let alone improve. And yet, as Matt K said, the Orioles did win 89 games last year and earned a spot in the wild card game. This team may be aging, but it has been extremely successful.
With minimal remaining resources, the Orioles will need to decide whether they should stay the course or shake things
For this analysis, I count Chris Davis earning $17 million in 2017 and disregard his deferred cash. I also do the same for O’Day but not for Jimenez or Hardy. In addition, I presume that Bundy will get a pay cut this year and will earn only $1.5 million. In theory, this gives me a few million dollars to spend on signing minor league players, but I also think that the Orioles are unlikely to spend $160 million this season. I also think that the Orioles would be able to add a major league ready corner outfielder if they traded Tillman and Brach and this would save a few million. The starting rotation would take a hit due to the loss of Chris Tillman and the bullpen would struggle to replace Brach, but the offense would be about the same due to some of the new additions and the defense would be much improved. For 2018, the Orioles would be at roughly $114 million in payroll and therefore would have the flexibility to add a top free
Cespedes has been an elite bat for the Mets the past year and a half and faced harder pitching than the average hitter. Cespedes is better against left handed pitchers than right handed pitchers and therefore could be paired up well with Chris Davis. BORAS thinks that Cespedes will only receive 4 yrs and $70 million in the free agent market. I disagree. I think that Cespedes will benefit from being the best player in a weak market. Jon Heyman has said that teams will offer him four years at close to hundred million. I think offering a fifth year will make up for the fact that a significant amount of cash will be deferred to the