Cash Flow Estimation and Risk Analysis
CASE 2
Cash Flow Estimation and Risk Analysis
Robert Montoya, Inc.
Robert Montoya, Inc., is a leading producer of wine in the United States. The firm was founded in 1960 by Robert Montoya, an Air Force veteran who had spent several years in France both before and after World War II. This experience convinced him that California could produce wines that were as good as or better than the best France had to offer. Originally, Robert Montoya sold his wine to wholesalers for distribution under their own brand names. Then in the early 1960s, when wine sales were expanding rapidly , he joined with his brother Marshall and several other producers to form Robert Montoya, Inc., which then began an aggressive promotion campaign. Today, its wines are sold throughout the world.
The table wine market has matured and Robert Montoya’s wine cooler sales have been steadily decreasing. Consequently, to increase winery sales, management is currently considering a potential new product: a premium varietal red wine using the cabernet sauvignon grape. The new wine is designed to middle-to-upper-income professionals. The new product, Suave Mauve, would be positioned between the traditional table wines and super premium table wines. In market research samplings at the company’s Napa Valley headquarters, it was judged superior to various competing products. Sarah Sharpe, the financial vice president, must analyze this project, and then present her findings to the company’s executive committee.
Production facilities for the new wine would be set up in unused section of Robert Montoya’s main plant. New machinery with an estimated cost of $2,200,000 would be purchased, but shipping costs to move the machinery to Robert Montoya’s plant would total $80,000, and installation charges would add another $120,000 to the total equipment cost. Furthermore, Robert Montoya’s inventories (the new product requires aging for 5 years in oak barrels made in France) would have
Cash Flow Estimation and Risk Analysis
Robert Montoya, Inc.
Robert Montoya, Inc., is a leading producer of wine in the United States. The firm was founded in 1960 by Robert Montoya, an Air Force veteran who had spent several years in France both before and after World War II. This experience convinced him that California could produce wines that were as good as or better than the best France had to offer. Originally, Robert Montoya sold his wine to wholesalers for distribution under their own brand names. Then in the early 1960s, when wine sales were expanding rapidly , he joined with his brother Marshall and several other producers to form Robert Montoya, Inc., which then began an aggressive promotion campaign. Today, its wines are sold throughout the world.
The table wine market has matured and Robert Montoya’s wine cooler sales have been steadily decreasing. Consequently, to increase winery sales, management is currently considering a potential new product: a premium varietal red wine using the cabernet sauvignon grape. The new wine is designed to middle-to-upper-income professionals. The new product, Suave Mauve, would be positioned between the traditional table wines and super premium table wines. In market research samplings at the company’s Napa Valley headquarters, it was judged superior to various competing products. Sarah Sharpe, the financial vice president, must analyze this project, and then present her findings to the company’s executive committee.
Production facilities for the new wine would be set up in unused section of Robert Montoya’s main plant. New machinery with an estimated cost of $2,200,000 would be purchased, but shipping costs to move the machinery to Robert Montoya’s plant would total $80,000, and installation charges would add another $120,000 to the total equipment cost. Furthermore, Robert Montoya’s inventories (the new product requires aging for 5 years in oak barrels made in France) would have