Causes and Consequences of Global Imbalances
Causes and Consequences of Global Imbalances: Perspective from Developing Asia
CHARLES ADAMS AND DONGHYUN PARK
Global current account imbalances are one of the key macroeconomic imbalances that underlie the global financial crisis. The central objective of this paper is to analyze the causes and consequences of global imbalances from the perspective of developing Asia. More specifically, the paper examines the root causes of the large and persistent current account surpluses that have emerged in the region since the Asian crisis. The paper also explores the consequences of global imbalances for the region, in terms of welfare and economic growth. Based on the analysis, a number of concrete policy directions are recommended that will help Asia rebalance its demand and growth toward domestic sources.
I. INTRODUCTION
Global imbalances or, more precisely, global current account imbalances refer to the large current account deficits and surpluses that have emerged in the world economy during the last ten years. For the most part, the imbalances have been heavily concentrated among a small group of regions and countries, and until recently have displayed an unusually high degree of persistence. The imbalances have centered on the large current account deficits of the United States (US), which peaked at close to 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2006, and the corresponding surpluses in the rest of the world, in particular developing Asia, Middle East, and Russia. By definition, a current account deficit (surplus) is equal to negative (positive) net savings. Therefore, it is conceptually useful to view persistent global imbalances as the continuous financing of US consumption with the net savings of the surplus countries. Global imbalances have enabled global aggregate demand to keep pace with the rapid expansion of global aggregate supply due to the integration of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India into the world economy. Much of the
CHARLES ADAMS AND DONGHYUN PARK
Global current account imbalances are one of the key macroeconomic imbalances that underlie the global financial crisis. The central objective of this paper is to analyze the causes and consequences of global imbalances from the perspective of developing Asia. More specifically, the paper examines the root causes of the large and persistent current account surpluses that have emerged in the region since the Asian crisis. The paper also explores the consequences of global imbalances for the region, in terms of welfare and economic growth. Based on the analysis, a number of concrete policy directions are recommended that will help Asia rebalance its demand and growth toward domestic sources.
I. INTRODUCTION
Global imbalances or, more precisely, global current account imbalances refer to the large current account deficits and surpluses that have emerged in the world economy during the last ten years. For the most part, the imbalances have been heavily concentrated among a small group of regions and countries, and until recently have displayed an unusually high degree of persistence. The imbalances have centered on the large current account deficits of the United States (US), which peaked at close to 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2006, and the corresponding surpluses in the rest of the world, in particular developing Asia, Middle East, and Russia. By definition, a current account deficit (surplus) is equal to negative (positive) net savings. Therefore, it is conceptually useful to view persistent global imbalances as the continuous financing of US consumption with the net savings of the surplus countries. Global imbalances have enabled global aggregate demand to keep pace with the rapid expansion of global aggregate supply due to the integration of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India into the world economy. Much of the
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