Of metals and market forces
Is China’s grip on essential minerals loosening?
Feb 4th 2012 | HONG KONG | from the print edition
ALL that glisters is not gadolinium. Even so, that mineral and its 16 “rare earth” cousins—found in everything from batteries to catalytic converters—do help make the modern world go round. And, as the world’s manufacturers of such products have been reminded recently, China has a chokehold on their production.
China’s grip on rare earths first made headlines in 2010, when it suddenly cut exports to Japan. But it had been squeezing the market for years. In 2000 it exported some 47,000 tonnes of the stuff; by 2010 it exported only about 30,000 tonnes. This decline appeared to be the result of unfair export taxes and quotas.
Mine, all mine
Western powers have threatened to take the case to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). This week they seemed to get a boost when that body ruled against China on a related case. On January 30th an appellate body of the WTO ruled that China’s policies to restrict exports of several metals, like bauxite and magnesium, violated its WTO obligations. American and European officials cheered, arguing that China’s rare-earth policy must now also be scrapped. Some pundits say China might even pre-empt further legal action with a deal to drop its quotas.
Such celebrating may be premature. For one thing, China’s leaders have taken a hard line on trade of late, imposing fresh tariffs on imported poultry and sport-utility vehicles. On the heels of this week’s ruling a Chinese official declared defiantly that “we are fully prepared” to fight any challenge on rare earths. Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute for International Economics is convinced that China’s policies add up to “a disguised restriction on international trade” but cautions that any case on rare earths will be harder to win on its merits than this week’s one. That is because there is a stronger environmental argument for