China and the Esquel Group
China and the Esquel Group
China and the Esquel Group In response to criticism of it pegging the Yuan to the US dollar, China recently implemented steps toward liberalizing its exchange rate policy; however, a floating Yuan has created uncertainty concerning its impact on China’s economy. While it is likely that allowing the Yuan to appreciate against the US dollar will result in undesirable impacts for China such as deflation, a reduction of foreign direct investment (FDI), and a decline in exports, we believe China will, and should, continue a tempered liberalization of its exchange rate policy. This is necessitated by the potential consequences China faces both politically and economically by not moving towards a floating rate. Politically, China will continue to absorb the majority of the blame for foreign countries’ rising trade deficits, spawning potential legislation dictating import quotas on Chinese products. Economically, a fixed exchange rate will continue to plague China by its dependence on exports and increase its risk of being able to maintain the value of its portfolio of foreign reserves, most notably the United States dollar. It is our belief that these risks outweigh the benefits of China continuing business as usual. As such, the Esquel Group should devise operational strategies that mitigate the risks of an appreciating Yuan, which include diversifying revenue streams by implementing a textile import division, pursuing growth in domestic textile sales, and exporting more service-oriented products such as design and manufacturing technologies. If China does indeed relinquish dependence on maintaining a fixed exchange rate, it would reap several long-term benefits. The most notable of these benefits is an increase in China’s ability to react to a volatile economy by concentrating on inflation rather than exchange rates. Additionally, a pegged
China and the Esquel Group In response to criticism of it pegging the Yuan to the US dollar, China recently implemented steps toward liberalizing its exchange rate policy; however, a floating Yuan has created uncertainty concerning its impact on China’s economy. While it is likely that allowing the Yuan to appreciate against the US dollar will result in undesirable impacts for China such as deflation, a reduction of foreign direct investment (FDI), and a decline in exports, we believe China will, and should, continue a tempered liberalization of its exchange rate policy. This is necessitated by the potential consequences China faces both politically and economically by not moving towards a floating rate. Politically, China will continue to absorb the majority of the blame for foreign countries’ rising trade deficits, spawning potential legislation dictating import quotas on Chinese products. Economically, a fixed exchange rate will continue to plague China by its dependence on exports and increase its risk of being able to maintain the value of its portfolio of foreign reserves, most notably the United States dollar. It is our belief that these risks outweigh the benefits of China continuing business as usual. As such, the Esquel Group should devise operational strategies that mitigate the risks of an appreciating Yuan, which include diversifying revenue streams by implementing a textile import division, pursuing growth in domestic textile sales, and exporting more service-oriented products such as design and manufacturing technologies. If China does indeed relinquish dependence on maintaining a fixed exchange rate, it would reap several long-term benefits. The most notable of these benefits is an increase in China’s ability to react to a volatile economy by concentrating on inflation rather than exchange rates. Additionally, a pegged