China Fragile Superpower
China
Fragile Superpower
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Fragile Superpower
Susan L. Shirk
China
2007
Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2007 by Susan L. Shirk Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shirk, Susan L. China: fragile superpower / by Susan L. Shirk. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-19-530609-5 1. Nationalism—China. 2. China—Politics and government—2002– I. Title. JC311.S525 2007 320.951—dc22 2006027998
135798642 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper
For Sam, Lucy, and David Popkin
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Contents
Acknowledgments
ix 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Strong Abroad but Fragile at Home China’s Economic Miracle Domestic Threats 35 13
The Echo Chamber of Nationalism: Media and the Internet 79 The Responsible Power 105
Japan: “When the Chinese People Get Angry, the Result Is Always Big Trouble” 140 Taiwan: “A Question of Regime Survival” 181
The United States: “External Troubles Can Become Internal Troubles” 212 China’s Weakness, America’s Danger 255 271
Fragile Superpower
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Fragile Superpower
Susan L. Shirk
China
2007
Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2007 by Susan L. Shirk Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shirk, Susan L. China: fragile superpower / by Susan L. Shirk. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-19-530609-5 1. Nationalism—China. 2. China—Politics and government—2002– I. Title. JC311.S525 2007 320.951—dc22 2006027998
135798642 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper
For Sam, Lucy, and David Popkin
This page intentionally left blank
Contents
Acknowledgments
ix 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Strong Abroad but Fragile at Home China’s Economic Miracle Domestic Threats 35 13
The Echo Chamber of Nationalism: Media and the Internet 79 The Responsible Power 105
Japan: “When the Chinese People Get Angry, the Result Is Always Big Trouble” 140 Taiwan: “A Question of Regime Survival” 181
The United States: “External Troubles Can Become Internal Troubles” 212 China’s Weakness, America’s Danger 255 271