Competencia Population Case Study
Polling Probability Worksheet
New Competencia Demographic Data
1. Assuming that no calls have been made to New Competencia residents yet, what is the probability that the first phone call will be to someone in McGovern’s target population?
If there are no calls that have been made to New Competencia residents yet, it means that
Total population=11356
Let the 18-25 years old population represented by letter A, and small business owners by letter B, and P stands for probability.
Therefore, the probability that the first call will be to someone in McGovern’s target population is P (A or B) = P(A)+P(B)-P (A and B).
And P(A)=2571/11356, P(B)=1652/11356 and P (A and B) =134/11356
So, P (A or B) = (2571/11356) + (1652/11356) - (134/11356)
P (A or …show more content…
Your visit is wrapping up, and the polling center is preparing to close in 10 minutes. The polling staff has called 787 residents throughout the day; 212 of those residents are part of McGovern’s target population. What is the probability that the last two calls of the day will be to residents in McGovern’s target population?
Since there are 787 residents called, the remaining population are 11356-787=10569population.
Again, if 212 of the called residents are from McGovern’s target population, it means that the remaining residents in target population are equal to the initial number of target population minus these ones.
=4089-212=3877.
Each resident from the target population has the chance of receiving the call which is equal to P=3877/10569 =0.37
Now, the probability that the last two calls will be to residents in McGovern’s target population.
Is equal to P2 , …show more content…
So, the probability that the first call for tomorrow will be to someone in McGovern’s target population is P=3833/10494
P=0.37=37%
I will explain to the staffer how I came up with this conclusion in the following words:
Since they end the call, they have to know the number of the remaining residents who did not receive the call basing on those ones to whom the polling staff called. To do this, they have to take the total number of the population and then subtract the number of residents who received the calls today. Now, they also subtract the number of residents who receive the call and are from the target population to know those who did not receive a call in the same category.
Thus, the number of likely possibilities/calls in tomorrow’s session is equal to the total number of the remaining residents. Also, every remaining resident from the target population has a chance to receive a phone call. So, the possibilities for the tomorrow’s first call to be for a resident from a target population is equal to the total number of the remaining residents from target population divide by the total number of the remaining
New Competencia Demographic Data
1. Assuming that no calls have been made to New Competencia residents yet, what is the probability that the first phone call will be to someone in McGovern’s target population?
If there are no calls that have been made to New Competencia residents yet, it means that
Total population=11356
Let the 18-25 years old population represented by letter A, and small business owners by letter B, and P stands for probability.
Therefore, the probability that the first call will be to someone in McGovern’s target population is P (A or B) = P(A)+P(B)-P (A and B).
And P(A)=2571/11356, P(B)=1652/11356 and P (A and B) =134/11356
So, P (A or B) = (2571/11356) + (1652/11356) - (134/11356)
P (A or …show more content…
Your visit is wrapping up, and the polling center is preparing to close in 10 minutes. The polling staff has called 787 residents throughout the day; 212 of those residents are part of McGovern’s target population. What is the probability that the last two calls of the day will be to residents in McGovern’s target population?
Since there are 787 residents called, the remaining population are 11356-787=10569population.
Again, if 212 of the called residents are from McGovern’s target population, it means that the remaining residents in target population are equal to the initial number of target population minus these ones.
=4089-212=3877.
Each resident from the target population has the chance of receiving the call which is equal to P=3877/10569 =0.37
Now, the probability that the last two calls will be to residents in McGovern’s target population.
Is equal to P2 , …show more content…
So, the probability that the first call for tomorrow will be to someone in McGovern’s target population is P=3833/10494
P=0.37=37%
I will explain to the staffer how I came up with this conclusion in the following words:
Since they end the call, they have to know the number of the remaining residents who did not receive the call basing on those ones to whom the polling staff called. To do this, they have to take the total number of the population and then subtract the number of residents who received the calls today. Now, they also subtract the number of residents who receive the call and are from the target population to know those who did not receive a call in the same category.
Thus, the number of likely possibilities/calls in tomorrow’s session is equal to the total number of the remaining residents. Also, every remaining resident from the target population has a chance to receive a phone call. So, the possibilities for the tomorrow’s first call to be for a resident from a target population is equal to the total number of the remaining residents from target population divide by the total number of the remaining