Corn analysis 2014
!
OCTOBER 2014
Michael Maranslicht
!
| Corn |
Analyzing the Corn Market
!
• I examines key determinants and finds that current data may present an opportunity to buy corn in the fourth quarter of 2014.
!
Contents
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Page 2 - Long term harmonic corn cycles and structural analysis
Page 3 - Short term harmonic cycles and structural analysis
Page 4 - Seasonality cycles
Page 5 - Weather cycles
Page 6 - Gold & corn correlation
Page 7 - U.S dollar cycles
Page 8 - Conclusion
• Past performance and historical data is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing in commodities, futures, and foreign exchange markets carry high levels of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you as well as for you.
MICHAEL MARANSLICHT 10/1/2014
MARANFC@GMAIL.COM
!1
!
OCTOBER 2014
Chart A
Historical harmonic and price range analysis from 1860 - 2014
The historical corn trend has remarkable consistency in harmonic movement. From 1860 – 1932 corn declined an average of 86% from a major peak to major trough (1864 – 1896, 1917 – 1932). From 1937 2012 corn declined an average of 67% from major peaks to major troughs (1937 – 1940, 1948 – 1960,
1974 – 1986, 1996 – 2000, 2008 – 2009). We are currently at a 64% decline from 2012’s major peak.
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
• Theoretical
Entry Strategy: Buy corn when it declines 65% from its most recent major peak.
!
Corn declined an average of 60-70% from a major peak, and subsequently rebounded to a new
! high five out of five times since 1937. Historic probability of profitability when buying at major ! the!65% retracement, and selling the position at the previous peak has been 100%.
!
!
!
• Theoretical
Exit Strategy: Maximum risk exposure is the difference between entry price and
!
previous major trough. We conclude that since 1937, all major declines in corn have stabilized at
!
a harmonic rate of 60-70%. Additionally, corn has never declined past its previous major trough
OCTOBER 2014
Michael Maranslicht
!
| Corn |
Analyzing the Corn Market
!
• I examines key determinants and finds that current data may present an opportunity to buy corn in the fourth quarter of 2014.
!
Contents
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Page 2 - Long term harmonic corn cycles and structural analysis
Page 3 - Short term harmonic cycles and structural analysis
Page 4 - Seasonality cycles
Page 5 - Weather cycles
Page 6 - Gold & corn correlation
Page 7 - U.S dollar cycles
Page 8 - Conclusion
• Past performance and historical data is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing in commodities, futures, and foreign exchange markets carry high levels of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you as well as for you.
MICHAEL MARANSLICHT 10/1/2014
MARANFC@GMAIL.COM
!1
!
OCTOBER 2014
Chart A
Historical harmonic and price range analysis from 1860 - 2014
The historical corn trend has remarkable consistency in harmonic movement. From 1860 – 1932 corn declined an average of 86% from a major peak to major trough (1864 – 1896, 1917 – 1932). From 1937 2012 corn declined an average of 67% from major peaks to major troughs (1937 – 1940, 1948 – 1960,
1974 – 1986, 1996 – 2000, 2008 – 2009). We are currently at a 64% decline from 2012’s major peak.
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
• Theoretical
Entry Strategy: Buy corn when it declines 65% from its most recent major peak.
!
Corn declined an average of 60-70% from a major peak, and subsequently rebounded to a new
! high five out of five times since 1937. Historic probability of profitability when buying at major ! the!65% retracement, and selling the position at the previous peak has been 100%.
!
!
!
• Theoretical
Exit Strategy: Maximum risk exposure is the difference between entry price and
!
previous major trough. We conclude that since 1937, all major declines in corn have stabilized at
!
a harmonic rate of 60-70%. Additionally, corn has never declined past its previous major trough