Data Model Desition Case Analysis
THE GENTLE LENTIL RESTAURANT CASE
Solution:
From case we have the sense that:
IF Sanjay run the restaurant business, there are three part of cost Fixed Cost of operating cost (denotes by F) per month $3995 per month Variable costs of food each mean served $11 (denotes by V) V=11*Q Lab Costs each month (denotes by L) which is somewhere between $5040 and $6860
The revenue generate method is only by serve meal (Number of meals sold each month X prix fixe meal price of each meal) (denotes by R) R=P*Q Number of meals sold (denotes by Q) obey normal distribution N~ (3000, 1000) Prix fixe meal price (denotes by P) which obey discrete distribution as in Table5.12 Let X denotes the monthly earnings, Therefore,
Monthly Earnings (X) = Monthly Revenue (P*Q) – Monthly Expense (F+V+L) =P*Q – (3995+L+11*Q)
There are three variables in this equation, with the assumption; this model is realistic enough, if I was Sanjay, I will consider what the shape of the probability distribution of X is, and the measurement of this distribution to make risk analysis.
a). Without considering the partnership opportunity, to solve the case, we run a Crystal Ball simulation with 1000 trials. The assumption variables are P, Q, and L, and the forecast variable is X. We found that Sanjay's sample mean monthly salary is $10,653, which is an estimate of Sanjay's expected monthly salary at Gentle Lentil. If Sanjay decides to accept the job as a consultant, he would make $6,667 (80000/12) per month, which is less than the expected salary at Gentle Lentil.
Probability of less than expectation:
Probability of less than consult job:
b). From the same Crystal Ball simulation, we found that the sample standard deviation is $8,435, which is an estimation of the true standard deviation of Sanjay's monthly salary at Gentle Lentil. The true standard deviation is difficult to compute in this problem because we do not if the variables P, Q, and L are independent of each other.
Solution:
From case we have the sense that:
IF Sanjay run the restaurant business, there are three part of cost Fixed Cost of operating cost (denotes by F) per month $3995 per month Variable costs of food each mean served $11 (denotes by V) V=11*Q Lab Costs each month (denotes by L) which is somewhere between $5040 and $6860
The revenue generate method is only by serve meal (Number of meals sold each month X prix fixe meal price of each meal) (denotes by R) R=P*Q Number of meals sold (denotes by Q) obey normal distribution N~ (3000, 1000) Prix fixe meal price (denotes by P) which obey discrete distribution as in Table5.12 Let X denotes the monthly earnings, Therefore,
Monthly Earnings (X) = Monthly Revenue (P*Q) – Monthly Expense (F+V+L) =P*Q – (3995+L+11*Q)
There are three variables in this equation, with the assumption; this model is realistic enough, if I was Sanjay, I will consider what the shape of the probability distribution of X is, and the measurement of this distribution to make risk analysis.
a). Without considering the partnership opportunity, to solve the case, we run a Crystal Ball simulation with 1000 trials. The assumption variables are P, Q, and L, and the forecast variable is X. We found that Sanjay's sample mean monthly salary is $10,653, which is an estimate of Sanjay's expected monthly salary at Gentle Lentil. If Sanjay decides to accept the job as a consultant, he would make $6,667 (80000/12) per month, which is less than the expected salary at Gentle Lentil.
Probability of less than expectation:
Probability of less than consult job:
b). From the same Crystal Ball simulation, we found that the sample standard deviation is $8,435, which is an estimation of the true standard deviation of Sanjay's monthly salary at Gentle Lentil. The true standard deviation is difficult to compute in this problem because we do not if the variables P, Q, and L are independent of each other.