Decision Theory and Probability Distributions
Decision Analysis
Course Outline, Quarter I, 2006
Class Materials Topic Hardcopy in Packet Other*
Introduction
1 Freemark Abbey Winery Structuring Decisions
Framework for Analyzing Risk
2 The North Star Concert North Star.xls Best Guess, Worst Case, Best Case; and Continuous Uncertainties
3 Engine Services, Inc.
Quick Start Guide to Crystal Ball
Analyzing Uncertainty, Probability Distributions, and Simulation Learning Module: Crystal Ball Litigate Demo
Engine Services.xls Language of Probability Distributions and Monte Carlo Simulation
4 Taurus Telecommunications Corporation: A New Prepaid Phone Card Learning Module: Tornado Sensitivity
Taurus Telecommunications.xls Sensitivity Analysis and Key Drivers
Time Value of Money
5 Dhahran Roads (A)
Evaluating Multiperiod Performance Multiperiod Pro Forma and NPV
6 Roadway Construction Company NPV, IRR, and Project Assumptions
Data and Distributions
7 Appshop, Inc. Simulating NPV
8 Lorex Pharmaceuticals
Introduction to Analytical Probability Distributions Lorex Exhibit 2.xls Distributions
9 Sprigg Lane (A) Sprigg2.xls Probability Distributions and Spreadsheet Modeling; Risk
10 The Waldorf Property
Chapter 11 of QBA: Text and Cases
Waldorf.xls Cumulative Distribution Functions, Adjustment for Risk
11 Amore Frozen Foods (A) Macaroni and Cheese Fill Targets
Sampling Amore.xls Sample Uncertainty
Regression
12 Hightower Department Stores: Imported Stuffed Animals
Introduction to Least Squares Hightower Exhibit 5.xls Introduction to Regression
13 Problems in Regression
Using Dummy Variables RegresProbSet.xls Multiple Regression and Dummy Variables
14 The Oakland A's (A)
The Oakland A’s (A) Supplement
Linear Model-Building Oakland As A.xls Regression Modeling
15 American Lawbook Corporation (A) and (B) American Lawbook Data.xls Summary *Electronic spreadsheets or online learning module
Decision Analysis
Course Outline, Quarter 3, 2007
Class Materials Topic
Course Outline, Quarter I, 2006
Class Materials Topic Hardcopy in Packet Other*
Introduction
1 Freemark Abbey Winery Structuring Decisions
Framework for Analyzing Risk
2 The North Star Concert North Star.xls Best Guess, Worst Case, Best Case; and Continuous Uncertainties
3 Engine Services, Inc.
Quick Start Guide to Crystal Ball
Analyzing Uncertainty, Probability Distributions, and Simulation Learning Module: Crystal Ball Litigate Demo
Engine Services.xls Language of Probability Distributions and Monte Carlo Simulation
4 Taurus Telecommunications Corporation: A New Prepaid Phone Card Learning Module: Tornado Sensitivity
Taurus Telecommunications.xls Sensitivity Analysis and Key Drivers
Time Value of Money
5 Dhahran Roads (A)
Evaluating Multiperiod Performance Multiperiod Pro Forma and NPV
6 Roadway Construction Company NPV, IRR, and Project Assumptions
Data and Distributions
7 Appshop, Inc. Simulating NPV
8 Lorex Pharmaceuticals
Introduction to Analytical Probability Distributions Lorex Exhibit 2.xls Distributions
9 Sprigg Lane (A) Sprigg2.xls Probability Distributions and Spreadsheet Modeling; Risk
10 The Waldorf Property
Chapter 11 of QBA: Text and Cases
Waldorf.xls Cumulative Distribution Functions, Adjustment for Risk
11 Amore Frozen Foods (A) Macaroni and Cheese Fill Targets
Sampling Amore.xls Sample Uncertainty
Regression
12 Hightower Department Stores: Imported Stuffed Animals
Introduction to Least Squares Hightower Exhibit 5.xls Introduction to Regression
13 Problems in Regression
Using Dummy Variables RegresProbSet.xls Multiple Regression and Dummy Variables
14 The Oakland A's (A)
The Oakland A’s (A) Supplement
Linear Model-Building Oakland As A.xls Regression Modeling
15 American Lawbook Corporation (A) and (B) American Lawbook Data.xls Summary *Electronic spreadsheets or online learning module
Decision Analysis
Course Outline, Quarter 3, 2007
Class Materials Topic