MSING014 ─ MSING014B ─ MSINM014
DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS ─ 2011/2012
FINAL EXAM
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The examination will last for TWO (2) hours.
The exam is open book. You are allowed to use the course pack, class handouts and any other materials that relate to the course.
You are not allowed to access the internet, or e-mail.
The examination paper consists of 10 questions:
You should answer ALL of the questions.
Make explicit any assumptions underlying your answers, interpret your results
and
justify
your
answers,
conclusions
and
recommendations. But keep your answers short and to the point. In grading, importance will be attached to the clarity and conciseness of your answers. Good luck!
DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS: EXAM
FastFerment
FastFerment is a start-up venture started by UCL scientists and engineers. The firm has discovered an enzyme which accelerates the evolution of the mold Aspergillus Orgzae, which is used for making traditional rice-based alcoholic drinks (rice wines) in East Asia such as Sake or
Makgeolli. W hen this powder is included in the production of the rice wines, the production lead time is shortened from 10 days to 3 days without affecting the taste or quality of the wine, as it accelerates the fermentation of the rice. Thus, the powder can substantially increase the production capacity for the rice-wine manufacturers and provide them with a competitive advantage. Recently, FastFerment has perfected the technology of genetically engineering and mass producing this accelerating enzyme and storing it in a powder form. They are currently formulating strategies to commercialize the powder by selling the powder to manufacturers.
Currently, they estimate there are 156 rice wine manufacturers, but this could be as less as 140, as existing firms may no longer be active, and as many as 190, as there are recent new