Economic Downfall

America, by many accounts, is already experiencing decline yet shall not be replaced by another power at any point soon. The resilience of the liberal order, the material and structural advantage accumulated by America has ensured that decline will be gradual. ‘Decline’ has manifested itself in cautious and pragmatic US foreign policy both economically and militarily, but there is little to suggest that there will be significant change to the status quo. Contenders to US hegemony, such as China, India and the EU, lack the material resources or political will to make American decline of paradigmatic magnitude. While in gradual decline, America will retain the mantle of global leadership for the remainder of this decade and beyond. Such decline may seem undesirable, but it has potential for good as the liberal economic order underwritten by the US has proven its instability since the turn of the millennium, leading to an uneasy balance in which American perpetually borrows to lend.[1] This system is unsustainable and needing reform. American decline is desirable as it could open discussion on replacing or reforming this economic order. The true extent of American decline will be explored below, examining the cases put forward regarding the America’s economic and military decline, and the ‘rise’ of other powers. It will become clear that while a marked decline in projection of power can be observed, no other state poses a credible challenge to America’s position as hegemon. While America remains the dominant power in the international system the case will be made below that there are grounds to be cautiously optimistic about a decline in American power.
Since Kennedy’s suggestion of imperial overstretch, the discussion of decline has cyclically arisen, it has been stated that ‘[e]very ten years, it is decline time in the United States.’[2] Quinn suggests that this time is different – that decline can be observed through American military and economic power.[3] Since