By
Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, CON Governor Central Bank of Nigeria
GROWTH PROSPECTS FOR THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
Convocation Lecture delivered at the Igbinedion University Eighth Convocation Ceremony, Okada, Edo State, November 26, 2010
GROWTH PROSPECTS FOR THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, CON Governor Central Bank of Nigeria
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INTRODUCTION
Nigeria’s economic aspirations have remained that of altering the structure of production and consumption patterns, diversifying the economic base and reducing dependence on oil, with the aim of putting the economy on a part of sustainable, all-inclusive and non-inflationary growth. The implication of this is that while rapid growth in output, as measured by the real gross domestic product (GDP), is important, the transformation of the various sectors of the economy is even more critical. This is consistent with the growth aspirations of most developing countries, as the structure of the economy is expected to change as growth progresses. Successive governments in Nigeria have since independence in 1960, pursued the goal of structural changes without much success. The growth dynamics have been propelled by the existence and exploitation of natural resources and primary products. Initially, the agricultural sector, driven by the demand for food and cash crops production was at the centre of the growth process, contributing 54.7 per cent to the GDP during the 1960s. The second decade of independence saw the emergence of the oil industry as the main driver of growth. Since then, the economy has mainly gyrated with the boom-burst cycles of the oil industry. Government expenditure outlays that are dependent on oil revenues have more or less dictated the pace of growth of the economy. Looking back, it is clear that the economy has not actually performed to its full potential particularly in the face of its rising population.
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In general,
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