Economics
Philippines Economy To Survive Haiyan
Despite a terrible human toll, Haiyan is unlikely to derail the nation’s impressive economic performance.
By Anthony Fensom
Asia’s “strong man” economy of the Philippines is considered tough enough to weather the effects of Typhoon Haiyan. Yet even after the deadliest typhoonin the nation’s recorded history, analysts have warned of potentially worse storms ahead.
After making landfall on November 8, Haiyan (known as Yolanda in the Philippines) flattened dozens of towns in the central Philippines, killing more than 5,200 people, mainly in Eastern Visayas, and injuring 25,000. The official death toll is likely to rise since 1,600 people remain missing, according to government estimates.
While Haiyan has clearly exacted a terrible human toll, the economic damages from the super typhoon have been estimated at around $230 million, well below the $900 million toll of last year’s Typhoon Bopha, which struck southern areas and killed more than 1,900 people. In 2011, Typhoon Nesat inflicted around $350 million in damages after hitting the manufacturing hub of Luzon, the nation’s most populated island.
In contrast, the islands hit hardest by Haiyan produce less valuable crops such as coconut, rice and sugarcane. According to ANZ research, the Eastern Visayas region accounted for just 2.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 and was the nation’s only region to actually contract in the past year.
“In the past three years, only the service sector of the region has been expanding while agriculture and industry have remained weak,” ANZ economist Eugenia Fabon Victorino said in a November 26 research report.
The economist said the Philippines’ economic fundamentals remained intact, despite some disruption to agricultural production in the fourth quarter.
ANZ downgraded its 2013 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.8 percent from 7.1 percent, due to reduced farm output, as well as predicting a higher inflation rate
Despite a terrible human toll, Haiyan is unlikely to derail the nation’s impressive economic performance.
By Anthony Fensom
Asia’s “strong man” economy of the Philippines is considered tough enough to weather the effects of Typhoon Haiyan. Yet even after the deadliest typhoonin the nation’s recorded history, analysts have warned of potentially worse storms ahead.
After making landfall on November 8, Haiyan (known as Yolanda in the Philippines) flattened dozens of towns in the central Philippines, killing more than 5,200 people, mainly in Eastern Visayas, and injuring 25,000. The official death toll is likely to rise since 1,600 people remain missing, according to government estimates.
While Haiyan has clearly exacted a terrible human toll, the economic damages from the super typhoon have been estimated at around $230 million, well below the $900 million toll of last year’s Typhoon Bopha, which struck southern areas and killed more than 1,900 people. In 2011, Typhoon Nesat inflicted around $350 million in damages after hitting the manufacturing hub of Luzon, the nation’s most populated island.
In contrast, the islands hit hardest by Haiyan produce less valuable crops such as coconut, rice and sugarcane. According to ANZ research, the Eastern Visayas region accounted for just 2.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 and was the nation’s only region to actually contract in the past year.
“In the past three years, only the service sector of the region has been expanding while agriculture and industry have remained weak,” ANZ economist Eugenia Fabon Victorino said in a November 26 research report.
The economist said the Philippines’ economic fundamentals remained intact, despite some disruption to agricultural production in the fourth quarter.
ANZ downgraded its 2013 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.8 percent from 7.1 percent, due to reduced farm output, as well as predicting a higher inflation rate