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effect of business cycles
Banco Central de Chile
Documentos de Trabajo
Central Bank of Chile
Working Papers
N° 156
Mayo 2002

THE EFFECTS OF BUSINESS CYCLES
ON GROWTH

Antonio Fatás

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BANCO CENTRAL DE CHILE
CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE

La serie Documentos de Trabajo es una publicación del Banco Central de Chile que divulga los trabajos de investigación económica realizados por profesionales de esta institución o encargados por ella a terceros. El objetivo de la serie es aportar al debate de tópicos relevantes y presentar nuevos enfoques en el análisis de los mismos. La difusión de los
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References: Aizenman, Joshua and Nancy Marion (1999). “Volatility and investment ' '. Economica 66(262). Alesina, Alberto, Sule Ozler, Nouriel Roubini and Philip Swagel (1996). “Political instability and economic growth” Barro, Robert and Xavier Sala-i-Martin (1995). Economic growth. New York: McGraw-Hill. Barro, Robert and Xavier Sala-i-Martin (1992). “Convergence ' '. Journal of Political Economy. Bernanke, Ben S. and Refet S. Gürkaynak (2001). “Is growth exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil seriously” Bernanke, Ben S. (1983). “Irreversibility, uncertainty and cyclical investment”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98 (1). Bertola, Giuseppe and Ricardo J. Caballero (1994). “Irreversibility and aggregate investment”. The Review of Economic Studies, 61(2). Caballero, Ricardo (2000). “Aggregate Volatility in Modern Latin America: Causes and Cures ' '. Cochrane, John H. (1988). “How Big is the Random Walk in GNP. ' ' Journal of Political Economy, 96, 5. Cogley, Timothy (1990). “International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output. ' ' Journal of Political Economy, 98(3). de Hek, Paul and Santanu Roy (2001). “On Sustained Growth under Uncertainty ' '. International Economic Review, 42. Easterly,, William and Ross Levine (2001). “It 's not factor accumulation: stylized facts and growth models ' ' Easterly, William, Michael Kremer, Lant Pritchett and Lawrence Summers (1993). “Good policy or good luck? Country growth performance and temporary shocks ' ' Fatás, Antonio (2000a). “Endogenous growth and stochastic trends ' '. Journal of Monetary Economics, 45 (1). Fatás, Antonio (2000b). “Do business cycles cast long shadows? Short-run persistence and economic growth” 16 Feeney, JoAnne (1999) Gali, Jordi and M. Hammour (1991). “Long-run Effects of Business Cycles. ' ' University of Columbia Mimeo. Hausmann and Gavin (1996). “Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America ' ' Hall, Robert (1991). “Recessions as Reorganizations”. NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Jones, Chad (1995a), “R&D-Based models of economic growth ' '. Journal of Political Economy, 103. Jones, Chad (1995b), “Time series tests of endogenous growth models ' '. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105(2). Jones, Larry E., Rodolfo Manuelli and Ennio Sachetti (1999). “Technology and policy shocks in models of endogenous growth” Jones, Larry E., Rodolfo Manuelli and Henry E. Siu (2000). “Growth and business cycles”. NBER WP 7633. Judson, Ruth and Athanasios Orphanides (1999). “Inflation, volatility and growth”. International Finance, 1. King, Robert G., Charles I. Plosser, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson (1991). “Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations. ' ' American Economic Review King, Robert G., Charles I. Plosser and Sergio T. Rebelo (1988). “Production, Growth and Business Cycles, II King, Robert G., Charles I. Plosser, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson (1991). “Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations. ' ' American Economic Review Kromendi, Roger C. and Philip G. Meguire (1985). “Macroeconomic determinants of growth”. Kydland, Finn. E. and Edward C. Prescott (1982). “Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations. ' ' Econometrica Levine, Ross and David Renelt (1992), “A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions ' ' Martin, Philippe and Carol Ann Rogers (1997). “Stabilization policy, learning by doing, and economic growth” Martin, Philippe and Carol Ann Rogers (2000). “Long-term growth and short-term economic stability” Nelson, Charles and Charles Plosser (1982). “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series. ' ' Journal of Monetary Economics 10. Ramey Garey and Valerie A. Ramey (1995). “Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth” Rodrik, Dani (1998), “Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments”, Journal of Political Economy, . Rodrik, Dani (1991). “Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries”. Journal of Development Economics, 36. Shea, John. (1998) “What do Technolocy Shocks Do? ' ' NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Stadler (1990). “Business cycle models with endogenous technology”. American Economic Review, 80(4). Talvi, Ernesto and Carlos A. Vegh (2000). “Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy ' '. NBER Working Paper, 7499.

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