Estimation of Demand Elasticity for Food Commodities in India§
Praduman Kumar*, Anjani Kumar, Shinoj Parappurathu and S.S. Raju
National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, New Delhi-110 012
Abstract
The food demand in India has been examined in the context of a structural shift in the dietary pattern of its population. The results have reinforced the hypothesis of a significant diversification in the dietary pattern of households in recent years and has found stark differences in the consumption pattern across different income quartiles. The food demand behaviour has been explained using a set of demand elasticities corresponding to major food commodities. The demand elasticities have been estimated using multi-stage budgeting with QUAIDS model and another alternative model, FCDS. The study has revealed that the estimated income elasticities vary across income classes and are lowest for cereals group and highest for horticultural and livestock products. The analysis of price and income effects based on the estimated demand system has suggested that with increase in food price inflation, the demand for staple food (rice, wheat and sugar) may not be affected adversely but, that of high-value food commodities is likely to be affected negatively. Therefore, the study has cautioned that if inflation in food prices remains unabated for an extended period, there is the possibility of reversal of the trend of diversification and that of consumers returning to cereal-dominated diet, thus accentuating under-nourishment. Key words: Food demand, Demand elasticity, QUAIDS model, FCDS model, Household food demand JEL Classification: Q11, Q18
Introduction
One of the conspicuous outcomes of the economic development India has experienced in recent years is a marked change in the dietary pattern of its population. Several studies have shown dietary diversification of Indians
References: Alderman, Harold (1986) The Effect of Food Price and Income Changes on the Acquisition of Food by Low Income Households. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. Blundell, R., Pashardes, P. and Weber, G. (1993) What do we learn about consumer demand patterns from micro data? American Economic Review, 83: 570-597. Bouis, Howarth (1991) A Food Demand System Based on Demand for Characteristics: If There Is Curvature in the Slutsky Matrix, What Do the Curves Look Like and Why?. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. Bouis, Howarth and Haddad, Lawrence (1992) Are the estimates of calorie income elasticities too high: A recalibration of the plausible range. Journal of Development Economics, 53(June): 115-137. Deaton, A. and Muellbauer, J. (1980) An almost ideal demand system. American Economic Review, 70(3): 312-326. Dey, Madan M. (2000) Analysis of demand for fish in Bangladesh. Aquaculture Economics & Management, 4: 63-79. 14 Agricultural Economics Research Review Vol. 24 January-June 2011 Dey, Madan M., Yolanda, T. Garcia, Kumar, Praduman, Piumsombun, Somying, Haque, Muhammad Sirajul, Li, Luping, Alias Radam, Athula Senaratne, NguyenTri Khiem and Sonny, Koeshendrajana (2008) Demand for fish in Asia: A cross-country analysis. The Australian Journal and Resource Economics, 52: 321-338. Kumar, P. and Dey, M.M. (2004) A study on modelling of household demand for fish in India. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 59(3): 465-475. Kumar, Praduman (1998) Food Demand and Supply Projections for India, Agricultural Economics Policy Paper 98-01. Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi. Kumar, Praduman, Mruthyunjaya and Birthal, Pratap S. (2006) Changing consumption pattern in South Asia. In: Agricultural Diversification and Smallholders in South Asia, Eds: P.K. Joshi, Ashok Gulati and Ralph Cummings (Jr). Academic Foundation, New Delhi. pp 151-187. Kumar, Praduman, Mruthyunjaya and Dey, Madan M. (2007) Long-term changes in food basket and nutrition in India, Economic and Political Weekly, (September 1): 35673572. Meenakshi, J.V. and Ray, R. (1999) Regional differences in India’s food expenditure pattern: A completed demand systems approach. Journal of International Development, 11: 47-74. Meenakshi, J.V. and Viswanathan, Brinda (2005) Calorie deprivation in rural India between 1983 and 1999/2000. In: The Great Indian Poverty Debate, Eds: Angus Deaton and Valerie Koze. Macmillan, New Delhi. pp. 570-83. Mittal, Surabhi (2006) Structural Shift in Demand for Food:India’s Prospects in 2020, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), Working Paper 184. Mittal, Surabhi (2007) What affects changes in cereal consumption? Economic and Political Weekly, (February) : 444-447. Patnaik, Utsa (2004) The republic of hunger. Social Scientist, 32(9-10): 9-35. Patnaik, Utsa (2007) Neoliberalism and rural poverty in India. Economic and Political Weekly, July 28: 3132-50. Pinstrup-Andersen, Per, Norha-Ruis, de Londono and Edward, Hoover (1976) The impact of increasing food supply on human nutrition: Implications for commodity priorities in agricultural research and policy. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 58(2): 131 142. Radhakrishna, R. (2005) Food and nutrition security of the poor: Emerging perspectives and policy issues. Economic and Political Weekly, 40(18): 1817-21. Radhakrishna, R., Hanumantha Rao, K., Ravi, C. and Sambi Reddy, B. (2004) Chronic poverty and malnutrition in 1990s. Economic and Political Weekly, 39(28): 3121-30. Rao, C.H. Hanumantha (2000) Declining demand for foodgrains in rural India: Causes and implications, Economic and Political Weekly, 35(4): 201-6. Rao, C.H. Hanumantha (2005) Agriculture, Food Security, Poverty and Environment: Essays on Post-Reform India, Oxford University Press, New Delhi. Ray, Ranjan and Lancaster, Geoffrey (2005) On setting the poverty line based on estimated nutrient prices: Condition of socially disadvantaged groups during the reform period, Economic and Political Weekly, 40(1): 46-56. Shinoj, P. and Mathur, V.C. (2006) Analysis of demand for major spices in India. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 19(2): 367-376. Stone, J.R.N. (1954) Linear expenditure system and demand analysis: An application to the pattern of British demand. Economic Journal, 64: 511 527. Swamy, Gurushri and Binswanger, Hans P. (1983) Flexible consumer demand systems and linear estimation: Food in India. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 63(2): 237 246. Received: January 2011; Accepted: March 2011