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Energy Politics
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Issue XV1: Winter 2008

Table of Contents

Economics
Energy Policy and Ecomics’ Understanding Crude Oil Prices By James D. Hamilton

4

Government Business People

Nuclear Fuel Banks By Danila Bochkarev

37

Forecasts on Saudi Arabia Liquids Production By Jean Laherrere

62

Four Dozen Chinese Rigs are in te U.S. Land Market With Dozen More Planned By Kathy Kemper

82

Regular Features

Peak Oil and the Second Great Depression By Colin Campbell

85

Issue XV1: Winter 2008

3

Letter from the Editor Editorial Board Jennifer I. Considine, Canada Thomas Dawson, Canada Keun‐Wook Paik, United Kingdom Joy Dunkerley, United States of America Bob Ebel, United States of America Tony Reinsch, Canada Angela Tu Weissenberger, Canada Stephen O’Sullivan, Russia Alex Kemp, Scotland G. C. Watkins, Canada Alpheus Jessup, United States of America Gavin Longmuir, United Kingdom Mamdouh G. Salameh, United Kingdom Michael Lynch, United States of America Colin Campbell, Ireland William Kerr, Canada Jean Laherrere, France Roland George, Canada John Roberts, United Kingdom Richard Marshall, Canada Thomas Walde, United Kingdom Garth Renne, Canada May Yeung, Canada Peter Adams, United States of America Barbara Baker, Canada Len Coad, Canada Edmilson Moutinho dos Santos, Brazil Analyn Simber,Philippines

Economics
Energy Policy and Economics Understanding Crude Oil Prices
James D. Hamilton This paper examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil prices, relates these to the predictions of theory, and looks in detail at key features of petroleum demand and supply. Topics discussed include the role of commodity speculation, OPEC, and resource depletion. The paper concludes that although scarcity rent made a negligible contribution to the price of oil in 1997, it may be an important feature of the
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