Environmental Case Analysis: the Risks of Global Climate Chang

THEORY AND PRACTICE IN ASSESSING VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND FACILITATING ADAPTATION
P. M. KELLY 1,2,∗ and W. N. ADGER 2
1 Climatic Research Unit, and 2 Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global

Environment, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, U.K. ∗ E-mail: [e-mail]

Abstract. We discuss approaches to the assessment of vulnerability to climate variability and change and attempt to clarify the relationship between the concepts of vulnerability and adaptation. In search of a robust, policy-relevant framework, we define vulnerability in terms of the capacity of individuals and social groups to respond to, that is, to cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. The approach that we develop places the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, focussing on the socio-economic and institutional constraints that limit the capacity to respond. From this perspective, the vulnerability or security of any group is determined by resource availability and by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. We illustrate the application of this approach through the results of field research in coastal Vietnam, highlighting shifting patterns of vulnerability to tropical storm impacts at the household- and community-level in response to the current process of economic renovation and drawing conclusions concerning means of supporting the adaptive response to climate stress. Four priorities for action are identified that would improve the situation of the most exposed members of many communities: poverty reduction; risk-spreading through income diversification; respecting common property management rights; and promoting collective security. A sustainable response, we argue, must also address the underlying causes of social vulnerability, including the inequitable distribution of resources.

1.

References: Adger, W. N.: 1996, Approaches to Vulnerability to Climate Change, CSERGE Working Paper GEC 96-05, Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich, and University College London. Adger, W. N.: 1998, Observing Institutional Adaptation to Global Environmental Change: Theory and Case Study from Vietnam, Working Paper GEC 98-21, Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich, and University College London. Adger, W. N.: 1999a, ‘Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam’, World Develop. 27, 249–269. Adger, W. N.: 1999b, ‘Exploring Income Inequality in Rural, Coastal Vietnam’, J. Develop. Studies 35, 96–119. Adger, W. N.: 2000, ‘Institutional Adaptation to Environmental Risk under the Transition in Vietnam’, Ann. Assoc. Amer. Geogr. 90, 738–758. Adger, W. N. and Kelly, P. M.: 1999, ‘Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements’, Mitigation Adaptation Strategies Global Change 4, 253–256. Adger, W. N. and Luttrell, C.: 1998, ‘Property Rights and the Utilisation of Wetlands’, in Soderqvist, T. (ed.), Wetlands: Landscape and Institutional Perspectives, Beijer International Institute of Ecological Economics, Stockholm, pp. 167–186. Adger, W. N., Kelly, P. M., Ninh, N. H., and Thanh, N. C.: 2001, ‘Property Rights, Institutions and Coastal Management – Coastal Resources under Doi Moi’, in Adger, W. N., Kelly, P. M., and Ninh, N. H. (eds.), Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, Routledge, London, in press. Adger, W. N., Kelly, P. M., Ninh, N. H., and Thanh, N. C.: 1997a, Property Rights and the Social Incidence of Mangrove Conversion in Vietnam, Working Paper GEC 97-21, Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich, and University College London. Adger, W. N., Kelly, P. M., and Tri, N. H.: 1997b, ‘Valuing the Products and Services of Mangrove Restoration’, Commonwealth Forestry Rev. 76, 198–202. Barbier, E.: 1993, ‘Sustainable Use of Wetlands Valuing Tropical Wetland Benefits: Economic Methodologies and Applications’, Geog. J. 159, 22–32. Bardhan, P.: 1996, ‘Efficiency, Equity and Poverty Alleviation: Policy Issues in Less Developed Countries’, Econ. J. 106, 1344–1356. 350 P. M. KELLY AND W. N. ADGER Bengtsson, L., Botzet, M., and Esch, M.: 1996, ‘Will Greenhouse Gas-Induced Warming over the Next 50 Years Lead to Higher Frequencies and Greater Intensity of Hurricanes’, Tellus 48A, 57–73. Benson, C.: 1997, The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Vietnam, Working Paper 98, Overseas Development Institute, London. Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., and Wisner, B.: 1994, At Risk: Natural Hazards, Peoples Vulnerability and Disasters, Routledge, London. Bohle, H. G., Downing, T. E., and Watts, M. J.: 1994, ‘Climate Change and Social Vulnerability: Toward a Sociology and Geography of Food Insecurity’, Global Environ. Change 4, 37–48. Brammer, H.: 1993, ‘Geographical Complexities of Detailed Impacts Assessment for the GangesBrahmaputra-Meghna Delta of Bangladesh’, in Warrick, R. A., Barrow, E. M., and Wigley, T. M. L. (eds.), Climate and Sea Level Change: Observations, Projections and Implications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 246–262. Burton, I.: 1997, ‘Vulnerability and Adaptive Response in the Context of Climate and Climate Change’, Clim. Change 36, 185–196. Cannon, T.: 1994, ‘Vulnerability Analysis and the Explanation of Natural Disasters, in Varley, A. (ed.), Disasters Development and Environment, John Wiley, Chichester, pp. 13-30. Chongyin, L.: 1988, ‘Actions of Typhoons over the Western Pacific (Including the South China Sea) and El Niño’, Adv. Atmos. Sci. 5, 107–115. Cutter, S. L.: 1996, ‘Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards’, Prog. Human Geog. 20, 529–539. Downing, T. E.: 1991, ‘Vulnerability to Hunger in Africa: A Climate Change Perspective’, Global Environ. Change 1, 365–380. Ewel, K. C., Twilley, R. R., and Ong, J. E.: 1998, ‘Different Kinds of Mangrove Forests Provide Different Goods and Services’, Global Ecol. and Biogeog. Lett. 7, 83–94. Field, C. D.: 1998, ‘Rehabilitation of Mangrove Ecosystems: An Overview’, Marine Pollution Bull. 37, 383–392. Folke, C. and Kautsky, N.: 1992, ‘Aquaculture with its Environment: Prospects for Sustainability’, Ocean Coastal Manage. 17, 5–24. Glantz, M. H.: 1991, ‘The Use of Analogies in Forecasting Societal Responses to Global Warming’, Environment 33, 10–15, 27–33. Hewitt, K.: 1997, Regions of Risk: A Geographical Introduction to Disasters, Longman, Harlow. Hirsch, P. and Thinh, N. V.: 1996, ‘Implications of Economic Reform in Vietnam: Agrarian and Environmental Change in Hien Luong’, Aust. Geog. 27, 165–183. Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J. (eds.): 1990, Climate Change. The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Houghton, J. T., Meiro Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.): 1996, Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Kates, R. W.: 2000, ‘Cautionary Tales: Adaptation and the Global Poor’, Clim. Change 45, 5–17. Kelly, P. M.: 2000, ‘Towards a Sustainable Response to Climate Change’, in Huxham, M. and Sumner, D. (eds.), Science and Environmental Decision-Making, Pearson Education, Harlow, pp. 118–141. Kelly, P. M., Granich, S. L. V., and Secrett, C. M.: 1994, ‘Global Warming: Responding to an Uncertain Future’, Asia Pacific J. Environ. Develop. 1, 28–45. Kelly, P. M., Hoang Minh Hien, and Tran Viet Lien: 2001, ‘Responding to El Niño and La Niña – Averting Tropical Cyclone Impacts’, in Adger, W. N., Kelly, P. M., and Nguyen Huu Ninh (eds.), Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam , Routledge, London, in press. Klein, R. J. T. and Nicholls, R. J.: 1999, ‘Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change’, Ambio 28, 182–187. ASSESSING VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND FACILITATING ADAPTATION 351 Knutson, T. R., Tuleya, R. E., and Kurihara, Y.: 1998, ‘Simulated Increase of Hurricane Intensities in a CO2 -Warmed Climate’, Science 279, 1018–1020. Lander, M.: 1994, ‘An Exploratory Analysis of the Relationship between Tropical Storm Formation in the Western North Pacific and ENSO’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 122, 636–651. Li, C.: 1987, ‘A Study of the Influence of El Niño upon Typhoon Action over the Western Pacific’, Acta Meteorologica Sinica 45, 229–236. Lighthill, J., Holland, G. J., Gray, W. M., Landsea, C., Craig, G., Evans, J., Kuhihara, Y., and Guard, C. P.: 1994, ‘Global Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones’, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 75, 2147–2157. McGregor, G. R.: 1994, ‘The Tropical Cyclone Hazard over the South China Sea 1970–1989’, Appl. Geog. 15, 35–52. Nakagawa, S., Sugi, M., Motoi, T., and Yukimoto, S.: 1998, ‘Climate Change Projections’, in Nishioka, S. and Harasawa, H. (eds.), Global Warming: The Potential Impact on Japan, Springer, Tokyo, pp. 1–33. Naylor, R. and Drew, M.: 1998, ‘Valuing Mangrove Resources in Kosrae, Micronesia’, Environ. Develop. Econ. 3, 471–490. Nishimori, M. and Yoshino, M.: 1990, ‘The Relationship between ENSO Events and the Generation, Development and Movement of Typhoons’, Geog. Rev. Japan 63A-8, 530–540 (in Japanese). O’Riordan, T. and Jordan, A.: 1999, ‘Institutions, Climate Change and Cultural Theory: Towards a Common Framework’, Global Environ. Change 9, 81–94. Palutikof, J. P., Subak, S., and Agnew, M. D. (eds.): 1997, Economic Impacts of the Hot Summer and Unusually Warm Year of 1995, University of East Anglia, Norwich. Reardon, T. and Taylor, J. E.: 1996, ‘Agroclimatic Shocks, Income Inequality and Poverty: Evidence from Burkina Faso’, World Develop. 24, 901–914. Ribot, J. C., Magalhães, A. R., and Panagides, S. S. (eds.): 1996, Climate Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-Arid Tropics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Sanderson, S.: 1994, ‘Political-Economic Institutions’, in Meyer, W. B. and Turner, B. L. (eds.), Changes in Land Use and Land Cover: A Global Perspective, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 329–355. Saunders, M. A., Chandler, R. E., Merchent, C. J., and Roberts, F. P.: 2000, ‘Atlantic Hurricanes and NW Pacific Typhoons: ENSO Spatial Impacts on Occurrence and Landfall’, Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 1147–1150. Schneider, S. H.: 1997, ‘Integrated Assessment Modeling of Global Climate Change: Transparent Rational Tool for Policy Making or Opaque Screen Hiding Value-Laden Assumptions’, Environ. Model. Assess. 2, 229–249. Scott, J. C.: 1976, The Moral Economy of the Peasant: Rebellion and Subsistence in Southeast Asia, Yale University Press, New Haven. Sen, A. K.: 1981, Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation, Clarendon, Oxford. Sen, A. K.: 1990, ‘Food, Economics and Entitlements’, in Drèze, J. and Sen, A. K. (eds.), The Political Economy of Hunger, Volume 1, Clarendon, Oxford, pp. 34–50. Smit, B., McNabb, D., and Smithers, J.: 1996, ‘Agricultural Adaptation to Climatic Variations’, Clim. Change 33, 7–29. Smith, J. B., Bhatti, N., and Menzhulin, G. V. (eds.): 1996, Adapting to Climate Change: An International Perspective, Springer, New York. Smithers, J. and Smit, B.: 1997, ‘Human Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change’, Global Environ. Change 7, 129–146. Sugi, M., Noda, A., and Sato, N.: 1996, ‘Will the Number of Tropical Cyclones Be Reduced by Global Warming? – Implication from a Numerical Modelling Experiment with the JMA Global Model’, Proceedings of the 1996 Spring Meeting of the Japanese Meteorological Society, p. 37 (in Japanese). 352 P. M. KELLY AND W. N. ADGER Tol, R. S. J., Fankhauser, S., and Smith, J. B.: 1998, ‘The Scope for Adaptation to Climate Change: What Can We Learn from the Impacts Literature’, Global Environ. Change 8, 109–123. Tri, N. H., Adger, W. N., and Kelly, P. M.: 1998, ‘Natural Resource Management in Mitigating Climate Impacts: Mangrove Restoration in Vietnam’, Global Environ. Change 8, 49–61. Vinh, T. T.: 1995, Tree Planting Measures to Protect Sea Dyke Systems in the Central Provinces of Vietnam, Paper presented at the Workshop on Mangrove Plantation for Sea Dyke Protection, Hatinh, Vietnam, 24–25 December 1995. Walsh, K. and Pittock, A. B.: 1998, ‘Potential Changes in Tropical Storms, Hurricanes, and Extreme Rainfall Events as a Result of Climate Change’, Clim. Change 39, 199–213. Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C., and Moss, R. H. (eds.): 1996, ‘Climate Change 1995’, in Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Watts, M. J. and Bohle, H. G.: 1993, ‘The Space of Vulnerability: The Causal Structure of Hunger and Famine’, Prog. Human Geog. 17, 43–67. Wisner, B. G.: 1978, ‘An Appeal for a Significantly Comparative Method in Disaster Research’, Disasters 2, 80–82. World Bank: 1995, Vietnam Poverty Assessment and Strategy, Operations Division, World Bank East Asia and Pacific Region, Hanoi. (Received 12 February 1999; in revised form 21 July 2000)