WTO estimates project a grim forecast that global trade is likely to decline by 9% in volume terms and the IMF estimates project a decline of over 11%.
The recessionary trend has huge social implications. The World Bank estimate suggests that 53 million more people would fall into the poverty net this year and over a billion people would go chronically hungry.
Though India has not been affected to the same extent as other economies of the world, yet our exports have suffered a decline in the last 10 months due to a contraction in demand in the traditional markets of our exports.
The protectionist measures being adopted by some of these countries have aggravated the problem. After four clear quarters of recession there is some sign of a turnaround and the emergence of ‘green shoots’, though I would be hesitant to hazard a guess on the nature and extent of this recovery and the time the major economies will take to return to their pre-recession growth levels.
Announcing a Foreign Trade Policy in this economic climate is indeed a daunting task. We cannot remain oblivious to declining demand in the developed world and we need to set in motion strategies and policy measures which will catalyse the growth of exports.
Agriculture and industry has shown remarkable resilience and dynamism in contributing to a healthy growth in exports.
In the last five years our exports witnessed robust growth to reach a level of US$ 168 billion in 2008-09 from US$ 63 billion in 2003-04. Our share of global merchandise trade was 0.83% in