Fhe Service
OPR1010 Operations Management (Winter 2010)
In-class Assignment 2: Forecasting
Directions:
( We will check the answers during the supplemental session on Feb. 18.
(Participation points will be considered for volunteers.
(This is not a take-home assignment. You do not have to turn in the answers.
(Use MS-Excel for Questions 1 through 4.
Q-1. The Polish General's Pizza Parlor is a small restaurant catering to patrons with a taste for European Pizza. One of its specialties is Polish Prize pizza. The manager must forecast weekly demand for these special pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly. Recently, demand has been as follows:
|Week |1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |
|Pizzas |50 |65 |52 |56 |55 |60 |
(a) Forecast the demand for pizza for Week 4, 5, and 6 using a naïve method.
(b) Forecast the demand for pizza for Week 4, 5, and 6 using the simple moving average method with n = 3.
(c) Repeat the forecast for Week 4, 5, and 6 by using the weighted moving average method with n = 3 and weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 with 0.50 applying to the most recent demand.
(d) Calculate the MAD and MSE for each method.
Q-2. The monthly demand for units manufactured by the Ace Rocket Company has been as follows.
|Month |May |Jun. |
|1 |$2.70 |760 |
|2 |$3.50 |510 |
|3 |$2.00 |980 |
|4 |$4.20 |250 |
|5 |$3.10 |320 |
|6 |$4.05 |480 |
|Total |$19.55 |3300 |
|Average |$3.258 |550 |
Q-3. Chicken Palace periodically offers carryout five-piece
In-class Assignment 2: Forecasting
Directions:
( We will check the answers during the supplemental session on Feb. 18.
(Participation points will be considered for volunteers.
(This is not a take-home assignment. You do not have to turn in the answers.
(Use MS-Excel for Questions 1 through 4.
Q-1. The Polish General's Pizza Parlor is a small restaurant catering to patrons with a taste for European Pizza. One of its specialties is Polish Prize pizza. The manager must forecast weekly demand for these special pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly. Recently, demand has been as follows:
|Week |1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |
|Pizzas |50 |65 |52 |56 |55 |60 |
(a) Forecast the demand for pizza for Week 4, 5, and 6 using a naïve method.
(b) Forecast the demand for pizza for Week 4, 5, and 6 using the simple moving average method with n = 3.
(c) Repeat the forecast for Week 4, 5, and 6 by using the weighted moving average method with n = 3 and weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 with 0.50 applying to the most recent demand.
(d) Calculate the MAD and MSE for each method.
Q-2. The monthly demand for units manufactured by the Ace Rocket Company has been as follows.
|Month |May |Jun. |
|1 |$2.70 |760 |
|2 |$3.50 |510 |
|3 |$2.00 |980 |
|4 |$4.20 |250 |
|5 |$3.10 |320 |
|6 |$4.05 |480 |
|Total |$19.55 |3300 |
|Average |$3.258 |550 |
Q-3. Chicken Palace periodically offers carryout five-piece