Forecasting Adoption of E Books
Name: Joyeta Samanta
Date: September 3rd, 2013
Chapter 3 & Case: FORECASTING THE ADOPTION OF E-BOOKS
Discussion Questions:
Q1. Assume that you are making a prediction from the time e-books first became available (year 2000). Although early unit sales data for e-books are available, construct your forecast irrespective of these sales?
The likelihood of purchase by a new adopter at time period t is p+(q/m)nt-1
//using bass model where the diffusion patterns are a function of size of market, rate of adoption by innovators and imitators and proportion of adopters in previous time period.
Where,
p is the likelihood that an innovator will adopt = .008 //using cellular telephone q is the likelihood that an imitator will adopt = .421 //using cellular telephone m is the total number of adopters that will never be exceeded =.467*293.7 mill = 137.15 mill // reading population nt-1 is the cumulative number of adopters of the product through the previous time period. = 0 //sales irrespective of previous sales
//I chose cellular data because it is mobile and used for reading messages at least
In this case the likelihood of purchase by a new adopter at time period t is:
The number of new adopters during the time period t,
S(t) = [p+(q/m) nt-1][(m - nt-1)] = 0.008 * 137.15mill = 1.097 mill customers
Q2. What do you expect the long-run total adoption of e-books to be?
I think long run total adoption of e-books to be slowing of market growth like seen on the adoption S-curve. I think if you can pin point the moment of rate of growth began to slow, you can pretty much double the market share number to see where it will end up.
Q3. Do you expect the market for e-books to be guided more by imitators or innovators? Why?
I think in technology like e-books, the market is guided by innovators and then grown by imitators. The cutting edge innovators first create the product in order for the innovators to make it affordable and bring it to mass
Date: September 3rd, 2013
Chapter 3 & Case: FORECASTING THE ADOPTION OF E-BOOKS
Discussion Questions:
Q1. Assume that you are making a prediction from the time e-books first became available (year 2000). Although early unit sales data for e-books are available, construct your forecast irrespective of these sales?
The likelihood of purchase by a new adopter at time period t is p+(q/m)nt-1
//using bass model where the diffusion patterns are a function of size of market, rate of adoption by innovators and imitators and proportion of adopters in previous time period.
Where,
p is the likelihood that an innovator will adopt = .008 //using cellular telephone q is the likelihood that an imitator will adopt = .421 //using cellular telephone m is the total number of adopters that will never be exceeded =.467*293.7 mill = 137.15 mill // reading population nt-1 is the cumulative number of adopters of the product through the previous time period. = 0 //sales irrespective of previous sales
//I chose cellular data because it is mobile and used for reading messages at least
In this case the likelihood of purchase by a new adopter at time period t is:
The number of new adopters during the time period t,
S(t) = [p+(q/m) nt-1][(m - nt-1)] = 0.008 * 137.15mill = 1.097 mill customers
Q2. What do you expect the long-run total adoption of e-books to be?
I think long run total adoption of e-books to be slowing of market growth like seen on the adoption S-curve. I think if you can pin point the moment of rate of growth began to slow, you can pretty much double the market share number to see where it will end up.
Q3. Do you expect the market for e-books to be guided more by imitators or innovators? Why?
I think in technology like e-books, the market is guided by innovators and then grown by imitators. The cutting edge innovators first create the product in order for the innovators to make it affordable and bring it to mass