forecasting in automobile industry
Automobile Industry
Manufacturing process Forecasting. Operations management
AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY MANUFACTURING FORCASTING.
Why automotive sector?
Projected growth of the Indian auto industry translates to 10 -11 % of India GDP by 2016 Auto- component industry in India expected to be USD 45 billion.
Policy initiative to market India as an attractive manufacturing destination.
Automotive industry promises significant employment opportunities.
The Industry Performance in the Domestic Market during FY 2012-13.
Category
Industry Sales (Nos.)
2011-12
2012-2013
Growth
Commercial Vehicles
415652
503218
-17.4%
Passenger Vehicles
1525313
1533268
-0.50%
Total
1940965
2036486
-4.7%
Alternatives Available
Continue
Shutdown fully/ partially
Divestment
Manufacturing forecasting Strategies
Decrease in Sales affects entire supply chain e.g.- Slowdown in Automobile will affect pigment ,paints , resins , solvent and related logistics
Evolving Planning system that addresses changes
Addressing Inventory and converting of stock to cash.
Identify sub-optimal performance in consumption of material or inefficient processes De-risking sales is fundamental to operations. Continuous performance improvement in operations by engaging process improvement teams who work with R& D to make positive changes for cost and material utilization.
Improve data collection about customer trends, technology improvements & realistic forecast Efficient utilization of ERP systems Production for new markets Lean Manufacturing Maintenance Strategies Changes in scale of production
Effect of Reduced Demand
Under-utilized capacity
Production Cut
Inventory piled up Blocked capital.
Checking Production
Team D decided to do a minor upgrade to Detonka but forgot that old inventory is disposed
GM SAGA
GM Closed 13 out of 21 plants.
GM eliminated 74,000 jobs.
GM supply chain
Manufacturing process Forecasting. Operations management
AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY MANUFACTURING FORCASTING.
Why automotive sector?
Projected growth of the Indian auto industry translates to 10 -11 % of India GDP by 2016 Auto- component industry in India expected to be USD 45 billion.
Policy initiative to market India as an attractive manufacturing destination.
Automotive industry promises significant employment opportunities.
The Industry Performance in the Domestic Market during FY 2012-13.
Category
Industry Sales (Nos.)
2011-12
2012-2013
Growth
Commercial Vehicles
415652
503218
-17.4%
Passenger Vehicles
1525313
1533268
-0.50%
Total
1940965
2036486
-4.7%
Alternatives Available
Continue
Shutdown fully/ partially
Divestment
Manufacturing forecasting Strategies
Decrease in Sales affects entire supply chain e.g.- Slowdown in Automobile will affect pigment ,paints , resins , solvent and related logistics
Evolving Planning system that addresses changes
Addressing Inventory and converting of stock to cash.
Identify sub-optimal performance in consumption of material or inefficient processes De-risking sales is fundamental to operations. Continuous performance improvement in operations by engaging process improvement teams who work with R& D to make positive changes for cost and material utilization.
Improve data collection about customer trends, technology improvements & realistic forecast Efficient utilization of ERP systems Production for new markets Lean Manufacturing Maintenance Strategies Changes in scale of production
Effect of Reduced Demand
Under-utilized capacity
Production Cut
Inventory piled up Blocked capital.
Checking Production
Team D decided to do a minor upgrade to Detonka but forgot that old inventory is disposed
GM SAGA
GM Closed 13 out of 21 plants.
GM eliminated 74,000 jobs.
GM supply chain
References: 1. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, Andreas Graefe and Kesten C. Green. "Answers to Frequently Asked Questions". Retrieved May 15, 2013. 2. Nahmias, Steven (2009). Production and Operations Analysis. 3. Ellis, Kimberly (2008). Production Planning and Inventory Control Virginia Tech. McGraw Hill. ISBN 978-0-390-87106-0. 4. J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy (1992). "Error Measures For Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons". International Journal of Forecasting 8: 69–80. 5. J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green and Andreas Graefe (2010). "Answers to Frequently Asked Questions". 6. Kesten C. Greene and J. Scott Armstrong (2007). "The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts". Interfaces (INFORMS) 0: 1–12. 7. Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong (1975). "Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts". Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts 39: 111–116. 8. "FAQ". Forecastingprinciples.com. 1998-02-14. Retrieved 2012-08-28. 11. "Selection Tree". Forecastingprinciples.com. 1998-02-14. Retrieved 2012-08-28.