Forecasting Methods
Forecasting Methods
What is forecasting ?
Why is forecasting important ?
How can we evaluate a future demand ?
How do we make mistakes ?
Prod 2100-2110
Forecasting Methods
0
Contents
1. FRAMEWORK OF PLANNING DECISIONS ............................................................................... 2
2. FORECASTING................................................................................................................................. 3
2.1 CHARACTERISTICS ............................................................................................................................... 3
2.2 TYPE OF FORECASTS: .......................................................................................................................... 4
3. TIME SERIES METHODS ............................................................................................................... 5
3.1 EXAMPLES ........................................................................................................................................... 5
3.2 PRINCIPLES .......................................................................................................................................... 7
4 STATIONARY TIME SERIES.......................................................................................................... 8
4.1 MOVING AVERAGE:............................................................................................................................. 8
4.2 WEIGHTED AVERAGE: ......................................................................................................................... 9
4.3 EXP. SMOOTHING: ............................................................................................................................... 9
4.4 COMPARISON BETWEEN MA AND ES ................................................................................................ 10
5 TREND-BASED TIME SERIES
What is forecasting ?
Why is forecasting important ?
How can we evaluate a future demand ?
How do we make mistakes ?
Prod 2100-2110
Forecasting Methods
0
Contents
1. FRAMEWORK OF PLANNING DECISIONS ............................................................................... 2
2. FORECASTING................................................................................................................................. 3
2.1 CHARACTERISTICS ............................................................................................................................... 3
2.2 TYPE OF FORECASTS: .......................................................................................................................... 4
3. TIME SERIES METHODS ............................................................................................................... 5
3.1 EXAMPLES ........................................................................................................................................... 5
3.2 PRINCIPLES .......................................................................................................................................... 7
4 STATIONARY TIME SERIES.......................................................................................................... 8
4.1 MOVING AVERAGE:............................................................................................................................. 8
4.2 WEIGHTED AVERAGE: ......................................................................................................................... 9
4.3 EXP. SMOOTHING: ............................................................................................................................... 9
4.4 COMPARISON BETWEEN MA AND ES ................................................................................................ 10
5 TREND-BASED TIME SERIES