Forecasting of Tsunamis and Volcanic Eruptions

GAC013 Assessment Event2: Case Study Investigation

Compare and Contrast
Tsunamis and Volcanic Eruption Forecasting

Student’s Name: Sissy Wang
Student ID#: SHSA16374
Teacher: Kenny
Due Date: 14th December 2011
Word Count: 1,194
Table of Contents 1. Abstract
Page 2 2. Introduction
Page 2 3. Methodology
Page 4 4. Finding
Page 4 5. Discussion
Page 6 6. Conclusions and Recommendations
Page 6 7. Reference
Page 7

Abstract
With the development of science, people start to decrease occurrence of death, for example, people investigated some useful therapy to treat people’s disease in pharmacology. Also, human want to figure out the natural disaster like tsunamis and volcanic eruption to let people are longevity. Although today’s technic are not enough to solve those disasters, people can use the different instrumentality to forecaster. In addition, people always prefer compare and contrast these instrumentalities to develop what they’ve already discovered. Thus, I’d love to discussed the advanced technology artifice of what I’ve just mentioned as examples— eruption of tsunamis and volcanic which reflect on millions of economic losing and death.

Introduction
Here’s an adage of ancient China called Man Proposes, God disposes, which can be translated as human’s power are very chickenshit in front of nature. People cannot decide when and where the disaster happened, they even cannot stop them, but with the development of technic, people can decrease the tragedy by forecast calamities. Human can realize different identities of different natural disaster easily within today’s science and technology. People can distinguish these calamities to excogitate different methods to prevent natural disaster like tsunami and volcano eruption. By using those methods, people can keep away from disaster safely. Here are two specific scientific and technological can be forecasted achievable are going to discuss hereinafter.
What I’m going to mentioned first is about is the method of forecasting tsunami. Seismologists have developed a new system that could be used to forecast impending tsunami only minutes after the initial earthquake called RTerg in Georgia Institute of Technology. This system could help reduce the death toll by giving local residents valuable time to move to safer ground. But this algorithm is not perfect enough, the team which creates this method is working for test and implements a technique for RTerg that could shave another minute or more from the warning time. In addition, they are planning to rewrite the algorithm to use at all the U.S. and international warning centers.
Next is the method of forecast volcanic eruption. The geophysicists of University of British Columbia are offering a new explanation for seismic tremors accompany volcanic eruptions that could advance forecasting of explosive eruptions. All explosive volcanic eruption are preceded and accompanied by tremors that last from hours to weeks, and a remarkably consistent range of tremor frequencies has been observed by scientists before and during volcanic eruptions around the world. However, the underlying mechanism for these long-lived volcanic earthquakes has never been determined. Most proposed explanations are dependent upon the shape of the volcanic conduit through which lava passes through or the gas content of the erupting magma, characteristics are impossible to determine during or after volcanic activity because of the vary greatly from different volcano.

Methodology
By using my daily experiment, I decide what kind of data can be used in this paper, here are several process will be discuss hereinafter. First, I read these two papers which teacher afforded carefully to ascertain what should be comprehended by the searching. Second, after the elementary reading, I should use data from different source to ascertain these two scientific forecasting are credible. Then, I used internet and books to realize more detail further such as basic theory, concept and theoretics of these scientific methods, and it will be shown next.

Finding
This module will show the similarities and differences between warning of tsunami, RTerg, and volcano eruption forecasting. According to the date that I’ve found from website, I’d love to describe the different and similarities of those two methods by creating a table. MethodsDifferences | RTerg | Volcano Eruption Forecasting | Purpose of Methods | Forecast impending tsunami only minutes after the earthquake. | Forecast explosive volcano eruptions. | | Both of them are used for forecasting natural disaster to prevent oversize death toll number and economic loss. | Date and Personnel of Methods | 23rd Feb. 2011, Wednesday, by geophysicists in University of British Columbia | 4th Mar. 2011, Friday, by the team which is constituted by seismologists. | Efficiency | Forecasting impending tsunami only minutes after the initial earthquake, which means people should make decision immediately to keep safety. | All explosive volcanic eruption are preceded and accompanied by tremors that last from hours to weeks, and a consistent range of tremor frequencies has been observed by scientists before and during volcanic eruptions around the world. | Part of Science Should be Used | Science of tsunami | Volcanology | | Seismology, which is mainly about the investigation of earthquake, both of scientific arithmetic is set up by using the character of earthquake. To be more specific, tsunami and volcano forecast are the embodiment of earthquake. Tsunami is caused by the primary wave’s effect, and the convulsionary frequency range before the volcano eruption and when volcano eruption is very similar to the earthquake. | About Earthquake | A reason that causes tsunami is the seabed vertical displacement while earthquake. | Volcano eruption may arouse earthquake. |
Discussion
According to the research, I have got a question, which forecast is more important to human-beings and which one is has more contribution. To solve this question, I’d love to describe those scientific methods’ difference again. First is the efficient, because of the identity of tsunami, the RTerg can only forecast tsunami in minutes, but the volcano eruption forecasting?
As we know, the forecasting for a short term can always have a high hit rate, the RTerg system is also included in this kind of technic. To be more particular, this kind of method may can forecast very exact, it can warn tsunami in a few minute by impart the earthquake magnitude and the time, high hit ratio can take people high guarantee of life and property’s safe. But this technic also have disadvantage, also is about the time. After the forecasting the tsunami and give notice to common people should need a lot of time, it may not as betimes as run away from the dangerous place. Oppositely, the forecasting volcano eruption can make mock for a long-time observation, but people cannot acquire the idiographic eruption date by using this technic.

Conclusions and Recommendations
In my opinion, the forecasting of volcano eruption is more contribute for human. According to the text, the RTerg can only warn tsunami in a few minutes, but the forecasting of volcano eruption can describe the law of eruption. People may be able to avoid tsunami immediately but the people can use the law of volcano eruption to prevent the harm from volcano.
References
Seismology (2011), Wikipedia [online]. Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismology [Accessed at December 12th 2011]
New system can warn of tsunamis within minutes (2011), e! Science News [online]. Available at: http://tinyurl.com/668ph95 [Accessed at December 10th 2011]

Oscillating 'plug ' of magma causes tremors that forecast volcanic eruptions: UBC research (2011), e! Science News [online]. Available at: http://tinyurl.com/6jcwu8y [Accessed at December 10th 2011]

References: Seismology (2011), Wikipedia [online]. Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismology [Accessed at December 12th 2011] New system can warn of tsunamis within minutes (2011), e! Science News [online]. Available at: http://tinyurl.com/668ph95 [Accessed at December 10th 2011] Oscillating 'plug ' of magma causes tremors that forecast volcanic eruptions: UBC research (2011), e! Science News [online]. Available at: http://tinyurl.com/6jcwu8y [Accessed at December 10th 2011]