Forecasting Techniques & Technical Analysis
Forcasting Techniques and Technical Analysis 1
Forecasting Techniques and Technical Analysis
By Students:
Nodar Svanidze, Zurab Sxirtladze
Research Paper In:
Managerial Economics
Dr. Edward Raupp
Tbilisi 2011
Forcasting Techniques and Technical Analysis 2
Forecasting
Forecasting is used for identifing a variety of business – trends, planning management activities. Such information makes it possible to take better decisions and create better plans.
Forecasting is required for all companies, regardless of size or development. Also, all departments within an organization, be it marketing, sales, manufacturing, HR or finance.
Product sales and production forecasts are dependent on the development cycle and it’s phase. When developing new product, it’s impossible to use time series data, as it won’t be accurate or it simply does not exist.
In this paper we will look at Time Series Analysis and it’s components. we will also use forecasting techniques with real data from stocks markets, on example of companies like Google and Apple.
Time series analysis
There can be Two types of Forecasting data:
cross-sectional: analyze several variables for a single period of time (Some of the company 's sales for the month of
January)
time series data: analyze a single variable over multiple periods of time (The company 's monthly sales for one year in
2010).
There are several components for Time Series Data:
1) Trend, is a component which represents the existing rises or falls. to remove trend line, “use least squares method possible best-fit line styles: straight Line: exponential Line:
Y = a + b(t)
Y = abt
Forcasting Techniques and Technical Analysis 3
quadratic Line:
Y = a + b(t) + c(t)2
choose one with best R2.” (Paul Keat, Philip K Young, Prentice Hall, 2009, Chapter Five, p.44)
2) Cycle, is a component which represents more than one year Variation around a trend. It is possible to isolate cycle by
Forecasting Techniques and Technical Analysis
By Students:
Nodar Svanidze, Zurab Sxirtladze
Research Paper In:
Managerial Economics
Dr. Edward Raupp
Tbilisi 2011
Forcasting Techniques and Technical Analysis 2
Forecasting
Forecasting is used for identifing a variety of business – trends, planning management activities. Such information makes it possible to take better decisions and create better plans.
Forecasting is required for all companies, regardless of size or development. Also, all departments within an organization, be it marketing, sales, manufacturing, HR or finance.
Product sales and production forecasts are dependent on the development cycle and it’s phase. When developing new product, it’s impossible to use time series data, as it won’t be accurate or it simply does not exist.
In this paper we will look at Time Series Analysis and it’s components. we will also use forecasting techniques with real data from stocks markets, on example of companies like Google and Apple.
Time series analysis
There can be Two types of Forecasting data:
cross-sectional: analyze several variables for a single period of time (Some of the company 's sales for the month of
January)
time series data: analyze a single variable over multiple periods of time (The company 's monthly sales for one year in
2010).
There are several components for Time Series Data:
1) Trend, is a component which represents the existing rises or falls. to remove trend line, “use least squares method possible best-fit line styles: straight Line: exponential Line:
Y = a + b(t)
Y = abt
Forcasting Techniques and Technical Analysis 3
quadratic Line:
Y = a + b(t) + c(t)2
choose one with best R2.” (Paul Keat, Philip K Young, Prentice Hall, 2009, Chapter Five, p.44)
2) Cycle, is a component which represents more than one year Variation around a trend. It is possible to isolate cycle by
References: Paul Keat, Philip K Young, Prentice Hall, 2009, Chapter Five John E