Global Equity Research Telecommunications Equipment
12 April 2012 Global Equity Research Telecommunications Equipment
Smartphones 2012
Research Analysts Kulbinder Garcha 212 325 4795 kulbinder.garcha@credit-suisse.com Deepak Sitaraman, CFA 212 325 5808 deepak.sitaraman@credit-suisse.com Achal Sultania 44 20 7883 6884 achal.sultania@credit-suisse.com Alban Gashi 212 538 3033 alban.gashi@credit-suisse.com Talal Khan 212 325 8603 talal.khan@credit-suisse.com Matthew Cabral 212 538 6260 matthew.cabral@credit-suisse.com Vlad Rom 212 325 5442 vlad.rom@credit-suisse.com
INDUSTRY PRIMER
Growth robust...time to think compute
Raising smartphone estimates. We raise our global smartphone market forecast by 9%/15% to 688mn/885mn units (46%/29% growth) in 2012/2013, driven strength in both high end and low end segments. We believe the addressable market for smartphones is 2.35bn longer term, resulting in effective penetration of only 33% currently. With significant improvements in availability of lower end smartphones and LTE being an incremental driver, we expect effective smartphone penetration to rise to 100% and lead to smartphone volumes of 1.18bn units by 2015, 26% CAGR. On ASPs we believe the mix shift down market can be offset by Apple’s unprecedented ability to grow the high end, and hence see limited pressure near term. Credit Suisse smartphone vendor scorecard – Apple, Samsung, Nokia in the top three. We continue to rely on our proprietary smartphone vendor scorecard which is based on nine metrics (software, services, cloud, product, brand, distribution, compute convergence, IPR and chipset efficiency) which we believe drive success in smartphones. We conclude that secular share gainers will be Apple, Samsung and Huawei and see scope for Nokia’s share to recover. There are increasing signs of vulnerability for Motorola Mobility, HTC and Sony and a rapid decline for RIM. It is about more than just the phone now…think compute. Increasingly, we believe that success in smartphones will be impacted by success in
Smartphones 2012
Research Analysts Kulbinder Garcha 212 325 4795 kulbinder.garcha@credit-suisse.com Deepak Sitaraman, CFA 212 325 5808 deepak.sitaraman@credit-suisse.com Achal Sultania 44 20 7883 6884 achal.sultania@credit-suisse.com Alban Gashi 212 538 3033 alban.gashi@credit-suisse.com Talal Khan 212 325 8603 talal.khan@credit-suisse.com Matthew Cabral 212 538 6260 matthew.cabral@credit-suisse.com Vlad Rom 212 325 5442 vlad.rom@credit-suisse.com
INDUSTRY PRIMER
Growth robust...time to think compute
Raising smartphone estimates. We raise our global smartphone market forecast by 9%/15% to 688mn/885mn units (46%/29% growth) in 2012/2013, driven strength in both high end and low end segments. We believe the addressable market for smartphones is 2.35bn longer term, resulting in effective penetration of only 33% currently. With significant improvements in availability of lower end smartphones and LTE being an incremental driver, we expect effective smartphone penetration to rise to 100% and lead to smartphone volumes of 1.18bn units by 2015, 26% CAGR. On ASPs we believe the mix shift down market can be offset by Apple’s unprecedented ability to grow the high end, and hence see limited pressure near term. Credit Suisse smartphone vendor scorecard – Apple, Samsung, Nokia in the top three. We continue to rely on our proprietary smartphone vendor scorecard which is based on nine metrics (software, services, cloud, product, brand, distribution, compute convergence, IPR and chipset efficiency) which we believe drive success in smartphones. We conclude that secular share gainers will be Apple, Samsung and Huawei and see scope for Nokia’s share to recover. There are increasing signs of vulnerability for Motorola Mobility, HTC and Sony and a rapid decline for RIM. It is about more than just the phone now…think compute. Increasingly, we believe that success in smartphones will be impacted by success in