Google Prediction Markets
Part I:
Briefly evaluate how Google’s Prediction Markets have worked to date. To what extent have the markets been successful or unsuccessful? 250
When the five Googlers got together to start with this project, their main objective was to launch an internal prediction market and test if crowds would make more accurate predictions than individuals’. To determine if this project was a success or not we need to determine our parameters of success. Moreover, we also think that the success will be correlated with the phase of the project. From the case we can see that this project is still going through its first steps, despite the system has been running for seven quarters. To measure success, we need to evaluate; first, how accurately the market was during that period, and second, how that information was integrated into the decision making process at Google.
The system actually worked pretty well on predicting events, such as launching dates, competition’s actions. There are some structural constraints for e.g. no money exchanged, lack of participation, lack of diversity, etc. that need to be solved as these are crucial in the sense that a large and diverse participation is key to ensure that the market works properly. Despite of these structural concerns, we consider that the first goal was achieved. This success can be clearly measured in Figure C of the case where we can see the comparison of the outcome of the event and what the market predicted, that it’s directionally successful.
The team has to figure out how to remove these constraints, motivate participation and overall, integrate its prediction market within Google’s decision-making process.
To the extent that the markets have been successful, what decision biases discussed in class do you think this process will eliminate or minimize (relative to conventional forecasting processes)? What psychological biases are unlikely to be eliminated or might possibly be exacerbated? 381
Volume of bets,
Briefly evaluate how Google’s Prediction Markets have worked to date. To what extent have the markets been successful or unsuccessful? 250
When the five Googlers got together to start with this project, their main objective was to launch an internal prediction market and test if crowds would make more accurate predictions than individuals’. To determine if this project was a success or not we need to determine our parameters of success. Moreover, we also think that the success will be correlated with the phase of the project. From the case we can see that this project is still going through its first steps, despite the system has been running for seven quarters. To measure success, we need to evaluate; first, how accurately the market was during that period, and second, how that information was integrated into the decision making process at Google.
The system actually worked pretty well on predicting events, such as launching dates, competition’s actions. There are some structural constraints for e.g. no money exchanged, lack of participation, lack of diversity, etc. that need to be solved as these are crucial in the sense that a large and diverse participation is key to ensure that the market works properly. Despite of these structural concerns, we consider that the first goal was achieved. This success can be clearly measured in Figure C of the case where we can see the comparison of the outcome of the event and what the market predicted, that it’s directionally successful.
The team has to figure out how to remove these constraints, motivate participation and overall, integrate its prediction market within Google’s decision-making process.
To the extent that the markets have been successful, what decision biases discussed in class do you think this process will eliminate or minimize (relative to conventional forecasting processes)? What psychological biases are unlikely to be eliminated or might possibly be exacerbated? 381
Volume of bets,