The MDGs are laudable and undoubtedly well-intentioned. But that does not mean they are realistic for all countries. Based on the actual rates of progress for both rich and poor countries in the past, the MDGs are now asking many countries to perform at the top end of historical experience. Indeed, in a few cases the bar for the world’s poorest countries is now set well above any historical experience. To take just a few examples:
Goal 1: Halving poverty. African economies must grow at about 7% per year over 2000-2015 in order to halve the number of people living below the poverty line. Just seven out of 153 countries accomplished this feat in the preceding 15 years. Of those seven, only two were African: Botswana, and Equatorial Guinea, neither of which are easily replicable.
Goal 2: Universal primary school completion. Many countries are starting from such a low level that they must now attain in about a decade what rich countries took nearly a century to complete. At least 20 African and some Middle Eastern countries have primary school enrollment of 70% or less, but to reach 100% by 2015 is enormously ambitious if history is any guide.
The MDGs have a big scope of change and if these changes are not made the future of the MDGs will be questionable as many countries won't be able to achieve even half the