Haveloche Corporation is a research and development company, which translates into sporadic cash flows over time. There are times when genius ideas bring in lots of cash flow for the company. However, there are also times where those genius ideas are shelved because no one has an interest in that patent. The ever changing cash flows prove to be difficult for decision making, especially when it comes to whether the company should give back to its investors or not.
Haveloche is constantly faced with the predicament of deciding what dividend policy is best for the organization and the investors. The company’s CEO listed the stock prices and dividends for us to look at.
There are 3 theories of investor preference for dividend versus capital gains: (1) Dividend Irrelevance Theory or Modigliani Miller (2) “Bird-in-the-hand” Theory (3) Tax Preference Theory.
According to Modigliani Miller (MM), the dividend policy has not effect on the stock price of the firm or the cost of capital. This theory states that investors reinvest the dividends back into the firm and the firm’s value is only based on the income produced from its assets, and not the dividends and retained earnings.
According to the second theory, the “Bird-in-the-hand” theory, dividends are known and stable and capital gains are unknown and uncertain. The dividend is less risky than capital gains. The risk of the firm’s cash flows in the long run is determined by the dividend payout policy according to this theory.
According to the third theory, Tax Preference Theory, capital gains are preferred over dividends. Due to time value of money, a dollar paid in the future on taxes has a lower cost than a dollar paid on taxes in the present. Capital gains typically have better tax advantages than dividends, which is why some investors prefer to invest in companies that minimize dividends.
Based on the scatter plot, I would have to say that Haveloche has chosen a variety of these different theories over