Heuristics and Bias
Running head: Heuristics and Bias
Heuristics and Bias
Ebony J. Travis
American Intercontinental University
Professor Walter McCord
Decision Making BUS300-0704A-03
October 27, 2007
Volvo: A Consumer’s Choice As an employee of It’s Electric, I have been delegated the assignment of picking a line of automobiles to use as company cars. On the grounds of economy and longevity, I am looking to purchase Volvo’s after some research on Consumer Reports. Through an exclusive fleet program, I found we could get the 2008 Volvo S40 1.6 petrol engine for a great promotional deal through Volvo directly (‘Volvo’, 2007). Before meeting with the people at Volvo, I spoke to my supervisor regarding this assignment and my choice. His initial reaction was one of judgment heuristic and availability heuristic. He felt strongly with his convictions about a Volvo due to the experience his brother-in-law had with one and went in to great length on why. Judgment heuristic was shown here for my supervisor made his assessment and judgment of probability simpler and availability heuristic was shown here for he also used what his brother-in-law experienced which is the process of perception and memory in the imagination. This information was available and fresh in his mind the moment Volvo was mentioned. He did not use information from consumer reports, but instead used availability heuristic to refer to his brother-in-law’s case and based his judgment on that. Events that are easily available within ones mind are more likely judged and to occur according to this heuristic. The biases, which are caused within availability heuristic, are the bias due to the easy retrievement of the instances where the supervisor was able to retrieve just one case against the negative of the Volvo. Also, notice the bias due to effectiveness of the search for the recall process. Many events are hard to recall and some are memorable such as mistakes and errors, there is a
Heuristics and Bias
Ebony J. Travis
American Intercontinental University
Professor Walter McCord
Decision Making BUS300-0704A-03
October 27, 2007
Volvo: A Consumer’s Choice As an employee of It’s Electric, I have been delegated the assignment of picking a line of automobiles to use as company cars. On the grounds of economy and longevity, I am looking to purchase Volvo’s after some research on Consumer Reports. Through an exclusive fleet program, I found we could get the 2008 Volvo S40 1.6 petrol engine for a great promotional deal through Volvo directly (‘Volvo’, 2007). Before meeting with the people at Volvo, I spoke to my supervisor regarding this assignment and my choice. His initial reaction was one of judgment heuristic and availability heuristic. He felt strongly with his convictions about a Volvo due to the experience his brother-in-law had with one and went in to great length on why. Judgment heuristic was shown here for my supervisor made his assessment and judgment of probability simpler and availability heuristic was shown here for he also used what his brother-in-law experienced which is the process of perception and memory in the imagination. This information was available and fresh in his mind the moment Volvo was mentioned. He did not use information from consumer reports, but instead used availability heuristic to refer to his brother-in-law’s case and based his judgment on that. Events that are easily available within ones mind are more likely judged and to occur according to this heuristic. The biases, which are caused within availability heuristic, are the bias due to the easy retrievement of the instances where the supervisor was able to retrieve just one case against the negative of the Volvo. Also, notice the bias due to effectiveness of the search for the recall process. Many events are hard to recall and some are memorable such as mistakes and errors, there is a
References: AIU Online. (Ed.). (ca. 2006). Unit 3: Heuristics and Bias [multimedia presentation]. Hoffman Estates, IL: AIU Online. Retrieved October 22, 2007, from AIU Online, Virtual Campus, BUS300-0704A-03: Decision Making. Website https://mycampus.aiu-online.com/Schools/5/CoursePlayer/CoursePlayer.aspx?classid=106204&tid=71&un=1&HeaderText=Course Materials: BUS300-0704A-03 : Decision Making. Armstrong, B. (2007). Business Decisions: How to make them quickly, correctly, and stress free. Retrieved October 16, 2007, from Patent Consultants International http://www.patantconsult.com/articlesvault/Article/Business-Decisions--How-To-Make-Them-Quickly--Correctly--And-Stress-Free---/12181. Edmunds, Inc. (2007). Volvo S40 Review. Retrieved October 25, 2007, from http://www.edmunds.com/volvo/s40/review.html. ‘New Cars’. (2007). 2008 Volvo S40. Retrieved October 25, 2007, from MSN Autos http://autos.msn.com/research/vip/overview.aspx?year=2008&make=Volvo&model=S40 Plous, S. (1993). The psychology of judgment and decision making. McGraw-Hill, Inc. Straker, D. (2007). Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic. Retrieved October 24, 2007, from Changing Minds.org http://changingminds.org/explanations/theories/anchoring_adjustment.htm. Straker, D. (2007). Availability heuristic. Retrieved October 24, 2007, from ChangingMinds.org http://changingminds.org/explanations/theories/availability_heuristic.htm. ‘Volvo’. (2007). Volvo models. Retrieved October 22, 2007, from http://www.volvocars.us/models/s40/.