Besides, according to Curtis, risk model is a mathematical representation of a system, commonly incorporating probability distributions. Models use relevant historical data as well as “expert elicitation” from people versed in the topic …show more content…
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Although, the basic statistical properties of financial data during stable periods remain (almost) the same as during crisis is the basic assumption in most statistical risk modelling. The functional form of risk models normally is not updated frequently and model parameters get updated slowly, as a result, risk models do not work well in crisis. Statistical properties of data during crisis is different that statistical properties in normal times. Risk modelling affects the distribution of risk however risk is not separate stochastic variable assumed by most risk models. If a lot of market participants need to execute the same trading strategies during crisis, they will change the distributional properties of risk considerably. Therefore, the distribution of risk is different during crisis than in other periods, and risk modelling is not only useless but may disturb the crisis, and lead to large price swings and lack of liquidity.(Danielsson, J.