Hindsigh Delight Bias Research Paper

Examine the following situations. � You just finished an assignment and are unsure about how you went but when you get the results back and got over 80% you tell your friends “I knew I would do well” and you believe that.� When a couple breaks up and a friend boasts to everyone “She knew it would happen”.� A football team has a comeback in the last part of a game and proceeds to win the game and you tell everyone that you knew they’d be the winners.

What do all of these situations, and all the other ones like it have in common? No matter how many different outcomes there may have been, someone always “knew it all along”. The truth in it is that they didn’t really know it all along, they just believe that they did. This is what we call hindsight bias.
Hindsight bias occurs as the result of an individual’s inability to remember the feeling of uncertainty that they had before an event. Hindsight Bias doesn’t refer to all increases in the probabilities a individual assigns to an event when they reflect on it. Hindsight bias occurs when new knowledge of an event is gained and is accompanied by a detail that the new information of an outcome has influenced any judgement (Hawkins & Hastie, 1990). Another difficulty in determining hindsight bias is that both hindsight tendencies and adaptive learning are produced at the same time by multiple cognitive responses that are elected by feedback from any judgment task (Blank, Fischer, & Erdfelder,