India's GDP growth
The IMF view point on India’s GDP
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook, projected an average growth rate of about 3.75 per cent in market prices for India in 2013-14, which is expected to pick up to 5.1 per cent next year.
India's GDP growth slowed to 5 per cent in the year 2012-13 ending March from an average of 8 per cent over the past decade.
In addition, two consecutive months (July-August) of negative business sentiment and higher interest rates may curb the potential for recovery in the second quarter of 2013-14 even after manufacturing output rebounded in July.
India's growth potential remains high but its macroeconomic vulnerabilities – high headline inflation, an elevated current account deficit, and rising pressure on fiscal balances from the depreciation of the rupee are some of the problems which India is facing now.
View point of the Indian Govt. on the GDP :-
Although output growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal year fell to 4.4 per cent, growth is expected to rebound strongly in the second half of 2013-2014 with core inflation trending down, a bumper crop expected in agriculture and exports likely to benefit substantially from the rupee's depreciation.
A 5 per cent increase in the area sown is expected to raise agricultural growth to 3.4 per cent from 1.9 per cent.
Also growth is expected to improve further in the medium term as strengthening exports support a recovery in industrial activity and new investment projects come on stream.
Six consecutive quarters of sub-6 per cent growth have allowed for an opening of the output gap, which is likely to limit inflationary pressures even with the expected acceleration in economic activity during the forecast period.
In July and August, exports rebounded strongly and imports came down, and a continuation of these trends is expected to bring down the trade deficit in the quarters ahead.
My Comments on the above:-
The IMF’s methodology for
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook, projected an average growth rate of about 3.75 per cent in market prices for India in 2013-14, which is expected to pick up to 5.1 per cent next year.
India's GDP growth slowed to 5 per cent in the year 2012-13 ending March from an average of 8 per cent over the past decade.
In addition, two consecutive months (July-August) of negative business sentiment and higher interest rates may curb the potential for recovery in the second quarter of 2013-14 even after manufacturing output rebounded in July.
India's growth potential remains high but its macroeconomic vulnerabilities – high headline inflation, an elevated current account deficit, and rising pressure on fiscal balances from the depreciation of the rupee are some of the problems which India is facing now.
View point of the Indian Govt. on the GDP :-
Although output growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal year fell to 4.4 per cent, growth is expected to rebound strongly in the second half of 2013-2014 with core inflation trending down, a bumper crop expected in agriculture and exports likely to benefit substantially from the rupee's depreciation.
A 5 per cent increase in the area sown is expected to raise agricultural growth to 3.4 per cent from 1.9 per cent.
Also growth is expected to improve further in the medium term as strengthening exports support a recovery in industrial activity and new investment projects come on stream.
Six consecutive quarters of sub-6 per cent growth have allowed for an opening of the output gap, which is likely to limit inflationary pressures even with the expected acceleration in economic activity during the forecast period.
In July and August, exports rebounded strongly and imports came down, and a continuation of these trends is expected to bring down the trade deficit in the quarters ahead.
My Comments on the above:-
The IMF’s methodology for