India in 2020
India’s Trade in 2020:
A Mapping of Relevant Factors
Nagesh Kumar
A paper prepared for the
Committee on Vision 2020 for India,
Planning Commission,
Government of India
Revised Version: 22 May 2001
Research and Information System for the Non-aligned and Other Developing Countries,
Zone 4B, India Habitat Centre, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003.
Tel.: 468 2175, Fax: 468 2174;
Email: nagesh@ndf.vsnl.net.in
An earlier version of the paper was presented at the Fifth Meeting of the Committee on Vision 2020 for India, Planning Commission, on 8 February 2001. I benefited from discussions with Dr V.R. Panchamukhi, and from comments of Dr S.P. Gupta and other participants at the Meeting The usual disclaimer applies.
India’s Trade in 2020:
A Mapping of Relevant Factors
Introduction
India 's trade has generally grown at a faster rate compared to the growth of GDP over the past two decades. With the liberalization since 1991 in particular, the importance of international trade in India’s economy has grown considerably. As a result the ratio of international trade to GDP has gone up from 14 per cent in 1980 to nearly 20 per cent towards the end of the decade of 1990s. Given the trends of globalization and liberalization, the openness of Indian economy is expected to grow further in the coming two decades. The more exact magnitude of India 's trade in 2020 and its proportion to India 's national income would be determined by a variety of factors. Many of these factors are in the nature of external shocks and are beyond the control of national policy making. One illustration is the recent surge in the crude oil prices in the international market to unprecedented levels that have impacted the country’s imports in a significant manner. In addition, the implementation of various WTO agreements are likely to affect the India 's trade. India 's trade is also likely to be affected by various
A Mapping of Relevant Factors
Nagesh Kumar
A paper prepared for the
Committee on Vision 2020 for India,
Planning Commission,
Government of India
Revised Version: 22 May 2001
Research and Information System for the Non-aligned and Other Developing Countries,
Zone 4B, India Habitat Centre, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003.
Tel.: 468 2175, Fax: 468 2174;
Email: nagesh@ndf.vsnl.net.in
An earlier version of the paper was presented at the Fifth Meeting of the Committee on Vision 2020 for India, Planning Commission, on 8 February 2001. I benefited from discussions with Dr V.R. Panchamukhi, and from comments of Dr S.P. Gupta and other participants at the Meeting The usual disclaimer applies.
India’s Trade in 2020:
A Mapping of Relevant Factors
Introduction
India 's trade has generally grown at a faster rate compared to the growth of GDP over the past two decades. With the liberalization since 1991 in particular, the importance of international trade in India’s economy has grown considerably. As a result the ratio of international trade to GDP has gone up from 14 per cent in 1980 to nearly 20 per cent towards the end of the decade of 1990s. Given the trends of globalization and liberalization, the openness of Indian economy is expected to grow further in the coming two decades. The more exact magnitude of India 's trade in 2020 and its proportion to India 's national income would be determined by a variety of factors. Many of these factors are in the nature of external shocks and are beyond the control of national policy making. One illustration is the recent surge in the crude oil prices in the international market to unprecedented levels that have impacted the country’s imports in a significant manner. In addition, the implementation of various WTO agreements are likely to affect the India 's trade. India 's trade is also likely to be affected by various
References: IMF (2000) World Economic Outlook: October 2000, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. Kumar, Nagesh, (1994a) ‘Determinants of Export-Orientation of Foreign Production by U.S. Multinationals: An Inter Country Analysis’, Journal of International Business Studies 25(1): 141-56. Kumar, Nagesh and N.S. Siddharthan, (1994) ‘Technology, Firm Size and Export Behaviour in Developing Countries: the case of Indian Enterprises’, Journal of Development Studies 31(2), 289-309. Kumar, Nagesh and N.S. Siddharthan (1997) Technology, Market Structure and Internationalization: Issues and Policies for Developing Countries. London and New York: Routledge. Kumar, Nagesh (1998) ‘Multinational Enterprises, Regional Economic Integration, and Export-Platform Production in the Host Countries: An Empirical Analysis for the US and Japanese Corporations’, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 134(3): 450-483. Kumar, Nagesh (2000a) Indian Economy Under Reforms: An Assessment of Economic and Social Impact, New Delhi: Bookwell and RIS. Kumar, Nagesh (2000b). ‘Developing Countries in International Division of Labour in Software and Service Industry: Lessons from Indian Experience’, Background Paper for World Employment Report 2001, Geneva: ILO. Kumar, Nagesh (2001) ‘WTO Regime, Host Country Policies and Global Patterns of MNE Activity: Recent Quantitative Studies and India’s Strategic Response’ Economic and Political Weekly, 36(1) 6 January, 39-50. Kumar, Nagesh and Aradhna Agarwal (2000). Liberalization, Outward Orientation and In-house R&D Activity of Multinational and Local Firms: A Quantitative Exploration for Indian Manufacturing, RIS Discussion Paper # 7, New Delhi. Lall, Sanjaya (1999) ‘India’s Manufactured Exports: Comparative Structure and Prospects’, World Development 27(10): 1769-86. Panchamukhi, V.R. (2000) World Trade Organization and India: Challenges and Perspectives, RIS Discussion Paper # 01/2000. World Bank (2000) Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries, Washington, DC: The World Bank WTO (2000) International Trade Statistics 2000, Geneva: World Trade Organization. ----------------------- [1] This section draws upon Kumar (2000b).