Trends in India's Foreign Trade
India’s Trade Performance
India’s merchandise exports reached a level of US $ 251.14 billion during 2010-11 registering a growth of 40.49 percent as compared to a negative growth of 3.53 percent during the previous year. India’s export sector has exhibited remarkable resilience and dynamism in the recent years. Despite the recent setback faced by India’s export sector due to global slowdown, merchandise exports recorded a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 20.0 per cent from 2004-05 to 2010-11.
World Trade Scenario
As per IMF’s World Economic Outlook October, 2011, world trade recorded its largest ever annual increase in 2010, as merchandise exports surged 14.4 per cent. The volume of world trade (goods and services) in 2011 is expected to slow down to 7.5 per cent compared to the 12.8 per cent achieved in 2010. Growth in the volume of world trade is expected to decline in 2012 to 5.8 per cent as per IMF projections.
The IMF has moderated its growth projections of world output to 4 per cent in 2012. The advanced economies are expected to grow at 1.9 per cent in 2012 while the emerging and developing economies to grow at 6.1 per cent. The projected growth rates in different countries are expected to determine the markets for our exports.
As per WTO’s International Trade Statistics, 2010, in merchandise trade, India is the 20th largest exporter in the world with a share of 1.4 per cent and the 13th largest importer with a share of 2.1 per cent in 2010.
The year 2011 has been a difficult year with Japan facing a major earthquake and tsunami, the swelling of unrest in the Middle East oil producing countries, the slowing down of US economy and the Euro area facing major financial turbulence. The current global economic slowdown has its epicenter in the Euro-region but the contagion is being witnessed in all major economies of the world. As a result, India’s short-term growth prospects have also