Ir Notes
STRATEGIC STUDIES
What is strategic studies?
- Multi-disciplinary academic fields that involved military thinking, warfare, theories, policy & defence planning that deals with the relationship between politics and military power including preparations, the threats & use of force and its latent presence in international politic.
- It also a commitment to multi-disciplinary approach to achieve political end through the application of military and diplomatic means.
Strategic Studies and the Classical Realist Tradition
- Human nature
- Anarchy and power
- International law, morality and institutions.
Approaches Of Strategies Study
1. Military theories as whole:
- Nature & effect of war
- Conditions of peace
- Conflict & characteristic of war
- Armament, history & dynamic of power rivalry
- Arms control, crisis management & decision making process.
2. Military Specific Affairs (social politic dimension):
- This approach focuses discipline as follows: - Focus heavily on strategic doctrine - Conventional & nuclear war - Use of force (why country fight)
3. Contemporary approach:
- More current approach
- Deal with military science
- Involve national interest
- involve military policy
4. Broader approach:
- Involve strategic thinking
- Apply concept of strategic
- Deal with art & science of applying
- Use of military to attain politic goals
“ Heavy Military Approach” – involve the use of force.
“Military affairs” – involve broader strategic
4 Level of Strategic
a) Tactical:
- Short term, easily identifiable objective
- This level primarily concern about implementation
- This level takes objectives within a battle
b) Operation:
- In-theatre manoeuvre & attainment of limited objective plan
- This level involves management
- this level plan battle
c) Strategic:
- High level military planning
- Involve logistic
- Plan campaign
d) Grand Strategy:
- Political direction
- Goal to be achieved by military operation
“Power is central of strategic approach”
Power
- “mans present means to any future apparent good-Thomas Hobbes
- The probability that one actor in a social relationship will…carryout his own will-Max Weber
- The production of intended effects-Bertrand Russell.
- There are scholar sees power as a generalized capacity to seek group goals and they stressed the extend to which these goals can be consensual and achieved by an accepted authority.
- There are many problem with the analysis of power in terms of power over.
- Pluralist theorist such Dahl sought to measure power by looking at the processes of decision making and tended to discover the no one group had a monopoly power in terms of being able to get their way.
- This was vulnerable to the sort of critique developed by the more radical theorist such as Bacharach and Baratz, who pointed to the importance of successful non decision that is the ability to get set of interest enshrined in the unspoken and unchallenged consensuses as a critical indicator of power.
What is Deterrence
Deterrence is a policy adopted by international actors to prevent their opponents from taking certain action by using threats of their opponents from taking certain actions by using threats of severe punishments if the warning is disobeyed.
What is deterrence use for
- Protecting the security of one’s state
- Managing the security dilemma
- Expanding the national interest and national power-establishing hegemony
- Promoting greater security, preventing war, promoting greater peace
- The focus on strategic thinking must be the ability of a state to sustain itself.
- Much writing on strategy and international politics distinguishes the problem of the state in its external relations from the requirements of internal order. This is a falsie dichotomy.
- A state with problems in internal order is more vulnerable to external pressure
- Often problem of internal order at most require local police action.
- The complex-city of social interaction in a modern society ensures a coherence that in itself deters secessionists and insurrectionists
- We can thus distinguish between hard and soft states according to the degree of social cohesion and popular legitimacy which they enjoy.
- Hard states can be vulnerable externally. But strong national feeling is an important source of political strength.
- The same distinction can be applied at the regional level..
- Force may for a moment provide complete control but the instability of such control required that either it is renewed continuously or else transformed, through the strategist’s art, into authority.
- In this sense, strategy is the art of creating power.
- Power is unstable and subject to qualification.
- It does not always produced the preferred effects but it produces more advantageous effects than would otherwise have been achieved.
International Law
- International law is reflect in the dominant approach to international politics know as realism.
- Realist portray the world as being dominated by states that act only in pursuit of their international interest.
- Public international law, which governs the relationship between states and international entities, either as an individual or as a group. It includes the following specific legal field such as the treaty law, law of sea, international criminal law and the international humanitarian law.
- Private international law, or conflict of laws, which addresses the questions of
(1) in which legal jurisdiction may a case be heard; and
(2) the law concerning which jurisdiction(s) apply to the issues in the case.
- Supranational law or the law of supranational organizations, which concerns at present regional agreements where the special distinguishing quality is that laws of nation states are held inapplicable when conflicting with a supranational legal system.
Just ad Bellum (the law toward war)
- The JAB is now founded primarily upon Article 2(3) (4) and Chapter VII (Articles 39-51) of the UN Charter. Provide that:
(3) All member shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security and justice are not endangered.
(4) All member shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of forces against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.
- Jus ad bellum (Latin for "Right to wage war") see also Just War) are a set of criteria that are consulted before engaging in war, in order to determine whether entering into war is justifiable.
- The JAB governs seek to limit resort to armed force in the conduct of international relations.
Just in Bello (the law in war)
The law of war is a body of law concerning acceptable justifications to engage in war (jus ad bellum) and the limits to acceptable wartime conduct (jus in bello). The law of war is considered an aspect of public international law (the law of nations) and is distinguished from other bodies of law, such as the domestic law of a particular belligerent to a conflict, that may also provide legal limits to the conduct or justification of war.
Causes of War
- A core feature of IR and international politics is the prevalence of conflict and war, which has brought about permanent insecurity in the world.
- This has lead to a continuous preoccupation by states and societies to ensure their security and survival.
Why war?
- regarded as a human disaster, a source of misery and in the nuclear age, a threat to the entire human race.
- but not always viewed so negatively, numerous writers identified virtue in war.
- G.H.W Hegel believed war preserved the ethical health of nations
- Treitschke said, war was one of the conditions for progress, the cut of the whip that prevents a country from going to sleep.
- Theorist have studied war to abolish it
- First step towards eliminating war is to identify its causes because.
- Some argue, wars are not caused by human nature, they are caused human behavior – possible to change
Civilized societies used law, the police, schools
- State behavior used diplomacy, force, trade, aid and propaganda.
Five Causes of War
- Instinctive (naluri) versus Learned Behavior (kelakuan yg dipelajari)
- Immediate (segera) versus Underlying (tersembunyi) Causes
- Efficient (cekap) versus Permissive (permisif)
- Conscious versus Unconscious Motivates for War
- Necessary (perlu) versus Sufficient (mencukupi) Causes
Instinctive Cause
- The root cause of war is to be found in human nature(naluri semulajadi)- that aggression and violence are genetically built into human and that we do what we do because of what we are.
Learned Behavior (sikap/tingkah laku)
- Human behavior is the population of behaviors exhibited by humans and influenced by culture, attitudes, emotions, values, ethics, authority, rapport, hypnosis, persuasion, coercion and/or genetics.
- May not be possible to change human behavior by offering rewards, by making threats, education or propaganda.
Immediate Causes
- The events that trigger wars, maybe trivial, even accidental. Peristiwa-peristiwa yang mencetuskan perang-perang, mungkin remeh, malah silap
- The Assassination of Francis Ferdinand at Sarajevo (June 1914) make consequences to First World War
- The final event which led to the outbreak of the First World War took place on June 28, 1914. On that day, the Archduke Francis Ferdinand, heir to the Austrian throne, and his wife were shot dead by a young Serbian nationalist of the Black Hand at Sarajevo, the Bosnian capital .
Underlying Causes
- Is a structural interpretation in the sense that it emphasizes in the importance of international circumstances rather than deliberate state policies in causing war.
Adakah satu penafsiran struktur dalam erti kata bahawa ia menekankan dalam kepentingan keadaan antarabangsa daripada dasar-dasar pemerintahan perlahan-lahan dalam menyebabkan perang.
- It suggests that statesmen are not allow to control of events, they sometimes find themselves caught up in a process which, despite their best intentions , pushes them to war.
Eg: Gulf War
Efficient Causes
- Efficient causes are connected to the particular circumstances surrounding individual wars.
- War may result because state A has something state B wants. In this situation the efficient cause of the war is the desire of state B.
Eg: Iraq US war
Permissive Causes
- Are those features of the international system which, while not actively promoting war, nevertheless allow it to happen. Adakah ciri-ciri itu sistem antarabangsa yang, manakala bukan aktif mempromosikan perang, bagaimanapun membenarkan ia untuk berlakunya.
More focus on international system
Conscious Motivates for War
- Generally believe that war results from a calculated, purposive decision is a conscious motivates for war.
Unconscious Motivates for War
-Philosophers and scientist trying to look behind a leader’s goal oriented acts often suggest that war results from unconscious drives and weaknesses in the human psyche of which practitioners may be unaware but which nevertheless push them towards war.
Necessary Causes of War
- A necessary condition for war is one that must be present if war is to occur.
In other words, if war cannot break out without that condition existing, then it is a necessary condition.
Sufficient Causes of War
- A sufficient cause of war is one that, if present, guarantees the occurrence of war.
A is a sufficient cause of B if B always occurs whenever A exists.
The three image of war (Kenneth Waltz, 1954). A realist position
- Man – his nature – dominate other state, their resources, evil, selfish, brutal, aggressive, cannot be trusted.
Frustration Explanations of war
- Relate with human behavior.
- Aggression is a result of frustrations.
- There is a sense in which the ‘frustration/aggression, hypothesis which emphasizes the connection between violence and the failure of human being to achieve their objectives, is somewhat more optimistic than instinct theories of aggression.
Misperception Explanation of War
- Wars that result from misperceptions, misunderstanding and miscalculations by statesmen might be prevented by better communications and more accurate information.
State – nature and structure – depend on state behavior, priority/protect to the national interest – used power to become hegemonic
The international system – anarchic –there is no central government, nation with power able to do what they want
War ‘Within’ and ‘Beyond’ States
- Perang ‘Dalam' dan ‘Melebihi' Negeri-negeri
- As inter-state war has waned, intra state conflict has become more frequent
- Ethnic conflict do not easily fit the Clausewitzian model. They are particularly violent and people are often killed because of who they are rather than because of their behavior and politics.
- In the future, some writers suggest, wars may be between civilizations rather than between states or ethnic group.
The Conditions of Peace.
Improving our techniques of
- Diplomacy
- Communications
- crisis avoidance and crisis management- by developing a concept of enlightened self-interest which sensitive to the interest of others.
- Extending the scope of international law and building on existing moral constrain by learning how to manage military power-arms control.
- Strengthening cooperation through international organization and world trade
- Reducing and limiting its destructiveness.
- Some kind of peace under dictatorship-maybe worse than some kind of war. - A dictatorship is defined as an autocratic form of government in which the government is ruled by an individual, the dictator.
- Ideally, what people want is a worldwide just peace- this is an unattainable dream. -require agreement on whose justice is to prevail -require a redistributions of wealth -require religious and political movement to tolerate each other -require an end to cultural imperialist
- In short, it would require human being to behave in ways in which they never behaved.
THE CONTROL OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
- The term arms race, in its original usage, describes a competition between two or more parties for the best armed forces. Each party competes to produce larger numbers of weapons, greater armies, or superior military technology in a technological escalation.
Nowadays the term is commonly used to describe any competition where there is no absolute goal, only the relative goal of staying ahead of the other competitors. -To extend a country's military power faster than another.
- From 1891 to 1919, arms race between several Europeans countries, including Germany, France, Russia, and others took place. Specifically, Germany's envy of Britain's superior navy in the run up to world War 1I resulted in a costly building competition of dreadnought-class ships. This tense arms race lasted until June 1914, when, after two antagonize power blocs were formed because of the rivalry, the World War broke out. After the war, a new arms race developed among the victorious Allies.
- A nuclear arms race developed during the Cold war a period of high tensions between the former Soviet Union and the United States of America. On both sides, perceived advantages of the adversary (such as the ““missile gap” led to large spending on armaments and the stockpiling of vast nuclear arsenals.
Arms control is defined as:-
“Restraint internationally exercised upon armaments policy, whether is respect of the level of armaments, their character, deployment or use”
Disarmaments refers to :-
“the reduction or abolition of armaments. It may be unilateral or multilateral; general or local; comprehensive or partial, controlled or uncontrolled’
- General and comprehensive disarmament is the most extensive aim of disarmaments i.e worldwide reductions in all major catogaries of weapons
- The terms disarmament and arms control are sometime used synonymously.
- Athough they are related but it is important to differentiate the concepts based on the term ‘restraint’ and ‘reduction’
- Disarmament is about reducing the numbers whereas arms control can increase the numbers but mutually restraint by parties to the agreement
- In view of this distinction, people began to reject disarmament and prefers arms control policies.
- Disarmers are “ revolutionaries “ who wants to upturn the traditional processes of international systems
- Arms controllers are “conservative” who want to make those processes safe.
- Disarmers want safety from the threats of weapons; arms controllers seek security through better control of weapons
- Disarmers believe that military power can be radically reduced; arms controller believe that it can be successfully managed.
- Disarmers seek to abolish nuclear weapons; arms controller seek only to define their role in the structure of deterrence.
- Disarmers believe that perpetuation (prolonging) of the war system is evil and potentially catastrophic aspect of international relations; arms controllers believe this is the best of all possible worlds.
What are weapons of Mass Destruction?
- Buzan and Herring define WMD as
“weapons of which small numbers can destroy life and/or inanimate ( make dead) objects on a vast scale very quickly”
In 1948 UN Commission for conventional Armaments define WMD as
“Atomic explosive weapons, radioactive material weapons, lethal chemical and biological weapons, and any weapons developed in the future which characteristics comparable in destructive effect to those atomic bomb or other weapons mentioned above”
- On August 6, 1945, the United States used a massive, atomic weapon against Hiroshima, Japan.
- This atomic bomb, the equivalent of 20,000 tons of TNT, flattened the city, killing tens of thousands of civilians.
- While Japan was still trying to comprehend this devastation three days later, the United States struck again, this time, on Nagasaki.
Weapons Control Treaty Development
- In 1968, superpowers focused on their mutual interest trying to prohibit further nuclear proliferation
- In July 1968, NPT (Non Proliferation Treaty) was signed by nuclear countries.
- China and France refused to sign and other states rejected the treaty on the ground that it froze the nuclear status quo and incorporated only limited commitment by the nuclear powers to give up their own weapons
In 1974, India exploded its first nuclear weapon, claiming it as for peaceful purpose.
- This even further highlighted the weaknesses of the Treaty.
- In 1972, Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) I was signed between the superpowers
- The aim of SALT I was to limit missile and anti ballistic missile (ABM) deployment at specific levels to prevent unrestricted arms race which could lead to instability to the international system.
- This treaty received criticism from the US and arms control community. The treaty limits the soviet union numerical superiority but gave Soviet opportunity to compete with US in the qualitative areas (missile accuracy, placement of multiple warheads on ballistic missile), where US was in the lead.
- As a result of the SALT I short comings, in 1979 SALT II was signed
- SALT II stressed on the ceiling for the strategic delivery vehicles at 2400 with sublimits on ballistic missiles armed with Multiple Independent Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) and strategic bombers.
- However arms control process was derailed as result of Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
- SALT II was not enforced but both superpowers continue to abide with what has been agreed.
- Even with the signing of Intermediate Nuclear Force (INF) in 1987 (which banned missiles with ranges 500 and 5000km), there was growing disappointment in overall benefit of arms control
- Critics of arms control claimed, There was little evidence that arms control had helped to improve superpower relations during period of intense hostility.
- In relations to other WMD, in 1975, The Biological weapons Convention (BWC) was enforced. The convention banned the development, production, and stockpiling of biological and toxin weapons
- The convention also required parties to the treaty to destroy ” the agents, toxins and weapons equipment and means of delivery”
- The convention had problems because there was no provision for verification of compliance.
Key Points
- The late 1940s and early 1950s saw a growing disillusionment with disarmament in dealing with the problems posed by weapons of mass destruction
- The late 1950s brought “new thinking” and the development of the theory of arms control
- The aim of arms control was to make the prevailing system work more effectively
- The Cuban missiles crisis ushered a new “golden age” of arms control agreements
- In late 1970s arms control as an approach to peace and security faced increasing problems, where some people feel that the disadavantage of arms control out weight its benefit.
International Regimes on WMD
- 3 key categories of WMD (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) plus the missile delivery systems associated with them, each has an international regime devoted to their control.
1. The Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)-5th March 1970. 189 members. Only India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan did not signed.
2. Signatory are divided into Two categories :
Nuclear Weapons States (Britain, China, France, Russia and US, are committed to “pursue negotiations in good faith” on nuclear disarmament – not done
Non Nuclear Weapon states (NNWS) agree to forgo nuclear weapons entirely.
- Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)
- A multilateral treaty banning the chemical weapons
- Signed in 29th April 1997
- Currently has 164 states parties –implemented by OPCW (Organisation for the - - Prohibition of Chemical Weapons
- The treaty bans development, acquisition or possession of chemical weapon by signatories,
- Their use or preparation for use, the transfer of CW or encouragement of CW in other states,
- The BWC went into force in 1975, and 150 states to the signatories. It bans development, stockpiling, acquisition, retention and production of biological toxins and agents
END OF COLD WAR ERA
(RESIDUAL ROLE OF ARMS CONTROL)
- Ending of cold war brought about a big fuss about arms control which rebutted some of the criticism levied against arms control concept.
- 1991- START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) I was signed – besides imposing limits on increasing weapons, START reduce the number of strategic delivery vehicles and warheads through a verified process
- 1993- with the end of Cold War , START II was signed between US and Soviet Union – reducing numbers of warheads held both side.
- Although there was a indefinite extension of the NPT in 1995, continued disagreement between NWS and NNWS over the pace of disarmament still continued.
- In 1998, when India and Pakistan carried their nuclear test, demonstrated the fragility of NPT
- Attempts to control other WMD ran into difficulties at about the same time.
- There were also concerns about the proliferation of nuclear weapons as the new century came to rise
- After 9/11 there were also concerns about terrorist groups having interest in acquiring WMD.
Key Points
- The post cold war period saw flurry (sudden rush) of arms control agreement
- Despite the lessening of hostility between the United States and Russia, however, progress was slow and intermittent
- Increasingly the utility of arms control was perceived to have declined in the changed international environment which emerged especially after 9/11.
The POST Cold War ERA
- United states became dominant power in the world
- Countries who feared US hegemony or intervention in their internal affairs had an interest in developing their own “ultimate” weapons (north Korea and Iran)
- The emergence of terrorist groups like Al-Qeada, with nothing to lose attitude, to further their regional and global ambitions
- The biggest fear is weapons of mass destruction proliferated to weak states and non-states actor
- This is the new “geostrategic realities” of the post cold war
- Therefore, the attempts to control weapons of mass destruction faced new challenges, difficult to bring traditional arms control techniques and principles forward to address the new emerging threats.
- The end of cold war has brought about a new set of threats, although smaller in size, but more numerous and potentially more acute.
- According to CIA Director James Woosley: “ it was as if we were struggling with a large dragon for 45 years, killed it, and then found ourselves in a jungle full of poisonous snakes”
THE EMERGENCE OF COUNTER-PROLIFERATION
- Counter-Proliferation defined by Butcher as
“ The military component of non-proliferation, in the same way that the military is a component of foreign policy”
Definition By Davies
“the activities of the department of Defense across full range of US efforts to combat proliferation, including diplomacy, arms control, export controls and intelligence collection and analysis, with particular responsibility for assuring US forces and interest can be protected should they confront and adversary armed with WMD or missiles”
In December 1993, US Secretary of Defense Les Aspin unveiled the Defense Counter-proliferation Initiative (CPI) in relation to US Forces were threaten by potential battlefield use of WMD. The goals of CPI:
1. To deter the acquisition of WMD
2. To reverse WMD programmes diplomatically where proliferation has occurred;
3. To ensure that the US had the ’equipment, intelligence capability and strategy to deter the threat or use of WMD; and
4. To defeat the enemy armed with WMD.
- In 2004 US Joint Chief of Staff issue a statement on countering WMD , define non-proliferation as “ action to prevent the proliferation of WMD by dissuading or impeding access to, or distributing of sensitive technologies”
(cited arms control and international treaties as relevant activities)
- Counter-proliferation defined as
“ Military activities taken to defeat the threat or use of WMD, with its objective being to deter, interdict, attack, and defend against the range of WMD acquisition, development and employment situation”.
- The Bush Administration published a document in December 2002 on WMD strategy. It gave the definition of counter-proliferation with 3 key elements
1. Interdiction of WMD transfers to “hostile states and terrorist organizations”;
2. Deterrence of use,
3. Defence
- The document also states that
“ US military forces and appropriate civilian agencies must have the capacity to defend against WMD-armed adversaries, including in taking pre-emptive measures”.
Key Points
- Strategic response against WMD proliferation are those involving military means. Also means-”counter-proliferation”
- “Counter-proliferation” is of interest during the post-cold war period because of the emergence of smaller potentially more immediate threat and a sense that arms control may be of limited use
- Concern about proliferation of WMD, especially nuclear weapons, is significantly driven by a concern that they may be used to deter US-led intervention.
The Diplomatic Option : Strategic Responses Withheld?
- Preventive strategies are directed at the process of proliferation, and aim to stop the development or acquisition of WMD
- Pre-emptive strategies are directed at the deployed weapons and /or facilities, the aim is to prevent their use in war
- The dilemma over North Korea and Iran has been whether to continue with diplomatic initiatives or whether to pursue a preventive or pre-emptive strategy.
The Challenges of Counter-proliferation
There are several problems and dilemmas associated with military response to proliferation
- Concerning the definition of “counter-proliferation” – not clear. It can refer to everything from protective clothing of troops right up to air-strikes on nuclear facilities or even regime change
- The question also lies in the international regimes on WMD and the UN. The great unanswered question is : what happen in cases of non-compliance? It can be controversial
- Question of facing “imminent threat” . Problem of getting institutional agreement in UN for military operations. But constitute “imminent” threat
- If pre-emptive action to happen, it must be part of regional intervention. If this is to happen US need to ally her regional allies for the action.
Key Points
- Finding a “political” logic into which preventive or preemptive action can be fitted has not always been easy
- Pre-emptive operations tend to find their rationale and legitimacy in the context of an ongoing war such as the 1991 Gulf War
- Preventive operations find their justifying logic in the international norm surrounding WMD, eg the Proliferation Security Initiative and Isreali attack on Osirak in 1981.
Views on Arms Control-From Counter-Proliferation back to Arms Control
- From the cold war experience, arms control agreement had play some role in contributing to international security
- Arms control is rarely of decisive importance and it is not a solution in its own right
- Arms control has traditionally been a fundamentally conservative policy. Its aim is to introduce some measures of predictability into an adversarial relationship
- Therefore, arms control cannot by itself create stability or peace
- Arms control in controlling weapons is only a means to an ends, not an ends in itself
- Arms control relies on the assumption that adversarial states see a mutual interest in avoiding outright conflict.
Views on Arms Control
- Arms control was workable during the cold war because there was real confrontation
- Now without confrontation, arms control is no longer require to inject stability or predictability into a conflict
- Arms control now comes to means about how to eliminate surplus military capability i.e. ageing cold war arsenal. Therefore no longer required formal verified treaties.
Military driven responses to proliferation
- Became prominence because of the growing concerns about the declining effectiveness of deterrence and of non-proliferation efforts
- Now is about counter-proliferation option – preventive and preemptive war
- The approach requires international political legitimacy if it is to succeed i.e. to provide hard evidence that WMD are a reality or an imminent threat
- Due to the difficulties of implementing forceful counter-proliferation, international community have renewed interest in arms control.
Whether traditional arms control can re-emerge to maintain international security and control WMD remains unclear although there are some positive signs especially from the Obama administration.
The “ return to arms control “ still faces major challenges
Extract from President Obama speeach in Praque Castle , 5th April 2009
- The cold war has disappeared but thousand of WMD have not,
- The threat of global nuclear war has gone but the risk of nuclear attack has gone up
- More nations has acquired these weapons.
- We are destined to live in a world with more nations with the tools of destruction
- Having a deadly enemies
- If the spread nuclear weapons is inevitable, than the use of nuclear weapon is inevitable
- Therefore, America is committed to seek the peace and security of the world without nuclear weapons.
- There is no single approach to the problem of controlling weapons of mass destruction-(disarmament, arms control or counter-proliferation)
- Arms control (traditional treaties and new partnership arrangement) are not panacea (solution to social eveil)
- Despite the imperfection of arms control arrangement, if more consistently applied, verified and policed , can provide preventive barriers.
THE SECOND NUCLEAR AGE:
NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY
- Nuclear weapon had played an important role in the international system since their invention in 1945.
- During the cold war period between US and USSR nuclear weapons was used to prevent superpower war (under the concept of Deterrence-MADS)
- The First Nuclear Age- Between 1945-1991(the fall of USSR) and was dominated by US and USSR which first tested the nuclear weapons in 1945 and 1949 respectively
- Three other countries became the declared nuclear power during the First Nuclear Age (Great Britain, France and China).
- Today Moscow and Washington still posessess the world’s largest nuclear arsenals but the environment has changed and they do not have antagonistic relationship.
- However the international environment is said to more dangerous than it was during the cold war era.
- The World has transitioned into what is known as the Second Nuclear Age-in which weapon will proliferate horizontally to more states including very dangerous and unstable regimes.
The First Nuclear Age
- The First Nuclear test occurred on 16 July 1945 in New Mexico
- One month after, on 6 and 9 August 1945 the first Atomic were used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki-the bomb nicknamed “Little Boy” and “Fat man”
- Both were fission nuclear weapons (Nuclear fission produces energy for nuclear power and to drive the explosion of nuclear weapons
The Manhattan Project
- These were the fruit of the Manhattan Project, a massive crash program by US government, to obtain nuclear weapon before the Nazi Germany
- However in 1949 the Soviet Union tested its first nuclear weapon
- Within a few years both Washington and Moscow built fission-fusion nuclear weapons commonly known as thermonuclear weapons.
Fissile Material
- The most important fissile material is uranium 235 and plutonium 239
- These material is difficult to find. A given quantity of mined uranium contains very little U235
- Plutonium is not found in nature but a by product of nuclear processes
- Therefore the control of fissile material is very important in preventing nuclear proliferation.
Thermonuclear yield
- Nuclear yields are measure in kilotons
- Kilotons equal to thousand of tons of TNT (dynamite)
- Megatons equal to millions tons of TNT
- 5 kiloton weapon yields and explosion equal to 5,000 tons of TNT
- 2 megaton warhead explosion equals to 2,000,000 tons of TNT
- Hiroshima had only an equivalent 20,000 tons of TNT
The Birth Of Deterrence Concept
- Immediately after the bombing of Hiroshima, a great debate began over the meaning of nuclear weapons for future of international relations
- The first major text examining the impact of on nuclear weapons on world politics was by Bernard Brodie tiltled “The Absolute Weapons” than followed by plenty of other writings
- The most important writings were those concerning nuclear deterrence
- Nuclear deterrence examined how nuclear weapons could be used to prevent an opponent from undertaking an undesirable action
The Deterrence concept
- In the context of Cold War the most critical deterrence issue was deterring the Soviet Union from undertaking an invasion of Western Europe
- The strategy used was counter value threat and counterforce threat
What is countervalue Threat
- that Soviet leaders would not attack Nato (Western Europe) if they are convinced that the United States would retaliate for this action by using nuclear weapons against the Soviet Union
- i.e. something that Soviet leaders valued in this case the soviet homeland itself
What is counterforce threat
- The warning that nuclear weapons would be used against the ‘sinews”(strength/will) of state power: military forces, leadership targets, targets relevant to military command and control.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons &
Strategic Nuclear Weapons
- TNWs are delivered by means of tactical aircraft, artillery, short range missile or cruise missile
- TNW are generally use in battle against troop concentrations, ships or submarines.
- SNW usually are delivered at very long ranges by intercontinental ballistic missiles(ICBM), submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The weapons can strike deep into enemy territory thousand of miles away.
Key Point
- Nuclear Weapons have not been used in conflict since atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan in 1945
- Nuclear weapons are categorized along with Chemical, biological, and radiological devices as WMD
- Competition in building of nuclear weapons was very closely tied to the cold war between US and the Soviet Union and the theoretical models relating to deterrence that were built during the time reflect the bipolar competition between the two superpowers
- Nuclear Weapons are divided into variety of Categories-between fission and thermonuclear and between tactical and strategic weapons.
Common Terminology
- Ballistic Missiles – a missile with rocket motors which flies on a ballistic trajectory. It carry a payload of conventional or WMD warheads
- Cruise missile – A missile with air breathing motor i.e. a small, pilotless aircraft travels in subsonic speed. Bombers can be equipped to carry nuclear tipped cruise missile
- Decapitation Strike- An attack intended to destroy the leadership and command, control, and communications(3) network of an enemy
- Disarming Strike- An attack that attempts to destroy an enemy’s nuclear forces
- Fallout – radioactive debris resulting from nuclear explosion. Lighter ones travel great distance. Fallout contamination can result in serious health effects
- Triad – The combination of SLBMs, ICBMs and Nuclear-armed long range bombers that together comprise the strategic nuclear forces of the United States and Russia.
SECOND NUCLEAR AGE
- Is deterrence concepts useful in the 21st century-with the presence of “rogue” states
- Deterrence is not a panacea
- India and Pakistan appear to have a reasonably stable deterrence relationship-mutual deterrence can be said to be working well in South Asia
- Not all leaders are similar to those individuals who led the USSR during the cold war
- Deterrence theory is not infallible and that failure is entirely possible.
- The Deployment of BMD (Ballistic Missile Defence):
= Some argue that BMD would destabilize the nuclear balance between the superpowers therefore encourage both countries to build more war heads
= 1971 US and USSR sign a Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty barring each countries from constructing comprehensive national missiles defence.
- In many respect humanity is safer today than during the cold war
- That nuclear-armed powers will always be “reasonable”
- Ballistic missile defences undermine deterrence
- Arms control and disarmament treaties are the best means of counter-proliferation
First Nuclear Age Vs 2nd Nuclear Age
- Increasing unreliability of deterrence
- As nuclear weapons proliferate horizontally. - The risk of nuclear war occurring somewhere on earth can be expected to increase-states which are not good models of international citizenship
- While nuclear weapons has not been used since 1945 we should not expect that this record to continue for another 6 decades
- Not easy to predict how a country like Iran will act when it possess a nuclear weapon.
Key Point
-With The end of Cold War, the world has entered a 2nd Nuclear Age in which the number of actors possessing nuclear weapons is progressively increasing even as the absolute number is falling
- Deterrence may prove unreliable in the future. Deterrence theory was developed in the context of the struggle between US and Soviet Union may be inapplicable to powers like N.Korea and Iran
- Strategic cultures influences how a country uses its nuclear arsenal for deterrence and/or war fighting
- Ballistic Missile defences will be an important factor in nuclear decision-making in the future, and the existence of BMD may discourage some countries from attempting to acquire nuclear weapons.
The Difficulties of Assertive Disarmament
- Assertive disarmament is the use of military force to destroy proliferator’s actual nuclear arsenal or would be proliferators capability to build nuclear power weapons
- Difficult to carry out
- Costly in financial and human term for the would-be disarmer, even with good intelligence (eg North Korea and Iran issue)
A Nuclear Taboo
Taboo against the use of Nuclear (chemical and Biological) Weapons
- Use of these devices is considered disreputable and immoral states are reluctant to use the weapons
- States who uses this weapons will be outcast and despised by peers
Key Points
- Non-proliferation and counter-proliferation measures are used to control and ideally prevent the horizontal proliferation (Vertical proliferation—the increase in numbers or dispersion of nuclear weapons) by nuclear weapons states
- The NPT acknowledges only five nuclear weapons states (China, France, Great Britain, Soviet Union/Russia, and the United States) and forbids all other signatories from obtaining nuclear weapons.
- Most of the world states are signatories although some (India, Isreal and Pakistan) are not
- Effective enforcement of Universal disarmament agreements such as NPT has proven difficult, because such agreement has very weak enforcement
- It is very unlikely that nuclear weapons will become obsolescent in the next few decades, or that the world’s nuclear powers will all agree to dismantle their arsenals.
- Since 1945, nuclear weapons have played a central role in international relations, but over time that role has changed delicately
- During cold war nuclear weapons were owned by small number of states, by now the nuclear club has become far less exclusive
- The MAD world overview is now absolete
- It is likely that the proliferation of missile defences in this century will provide many states with “shield” which can be use to defence against nuclear attack by their enemies
- With all the above reasons, the second Nuclear age will differ radically from its predecessor
What is strategic studies?
- Multi-disciplinary academic fields that involved military thinking, warfare, theories, policy & defence planning that deals with the relationship between politics and military power including preparations, the threats & use of force and its latent presence in international politic.
- It also a commitment to multi-disciplinary approach to achieve political end through the application of military and diplomatic means.
Strategic Studies and the Classical Realist Tradition
- Human nature
- Anarchy and power
- International law, morality and institutions.
Approaches Of Strategies Study
1. Military theories as whole:
- Nature & effect of war
- Conditions of peace
- Conflict & characteristic of war
- Armament, history & dynamic of power rivalry
- Arms control, crisis management & decision making process.
2. Military Specific Affairs (social politic dimension):
- This approach focuses discipline as follows: - Focus heavily on strategic doctrine - Conventional & nuclear war - Use of force (why country fight)
3. Contemporary approach:
- More current approach
- Deal with military science
- Involve national interest
- involve military policy
4. Broader approach:
- Involve strategic thinking
- Apply concept of strategic
- Deal with art & science of applying
- Use of military to attain politic goals
“ Heavy Military Approach” – involve the use of force.
“Military affairs” – involve broader strategic
4 Level of Strategic
a) Tactical:
- Short term, easily identifiable objective
- This level primarily concern about implementation
- This level takes objectives within a battle
b) Operation:
- In-theatre manoeuvre & attainment of limited objective plan
- This level involves management
- this level plan battle
c) Strategic:
- High level military planning
- Involve logistic
- Plan campaign
d) Grand Strategy:
- Political direction
- Goal to be achieved by military operation
“Power is central of strategic approach”
Power
- “mans present means to any future apparent good-Thomas Hobbes
- The probability that one actor in a social relationship will…carryout his own will-Max Weber
- The production of intended effects-Bertrand Russell.
- There are scholar sees power as a generalized capacity to seek group goals and they stressed the extend to which these goals can be consensual and achieved by an accepted authority.
- There are many problem with the analysis of power in terms of power over.
- Pluralist theorist such Dahl sought to measure power by looking at the processes of decision making and tended to discover the no one group had a monopoly power in terms of being able to get their way.
- This was vulnerable to the sort of critique developed by the more radical theorist such as Bacharach and Baratz, who pointed to the importance of successful non decision that is the ability to get set of interest enshrined in the unspoken and unchallenged consensuses as a critical indicator of power.
What is Deterrence
Deterrence is a policy adopted by international actors to prevent their opponents from taking certain action by using threats of their opponents from taking certain actions by using threats of severe punishments if the warning is disobeyed.
What is deterrence use for
- Protecting the security of one’s state
- Managing the security dilemma
- Expanding the national interest and national power-establishing hegemony
- Promoting greater security, preventing war, promoting greater peace
- The focus on strategic thinking must be the ability of a state to sustain itself.
- Much writing on strategy and international politics distinguishes the problem of the state in its external relations from the requirements of internal order. This is a falsie dichotomy.
- A state with problems in internal order is more vulnerable to external pressure
- Often problem of internal order at most require local police action.
- The complex-city of social interaction in a modern society ensures a coherence that in itself deters secessionists and insurrectionists
- We can thus distinguish between hard and soft states according to the degree of social cohesion and popular legitimacy which they enjoy.
- Hard states can be vulnerable externally. But strong national feeling is an important source of political strength.
- The same distinction can be applied at the regional level..
- Force may for a moment provide complete control but the instability of such control required that either it is renewed continuously or else transformed, through the strategist’s art, into authority.
- In this sense, strategy is the art of creating power.
- Power is unstable and subject to qualification.
- It does not always produced the preferred effects but it produces more advantageous effects than would otherwise have been achieved.
International Law
- International law is reflect in the dominant approach to international politics know as realism.
- Realist portray the world as being dominated by states that act only in pursuit of their international interest.
- Public international law, which governs the relationship between states and international entities, either as an individual or as a group. It includes the following specific legal field such as the treaty law, law of sea, international criminal law and the international humanitarian law.
- Private international law, or conflict of laws, which addresses the questions of
(1) in which legal jurisdiction may a case be heard; and
(2) the law concerning which jurisdiction(s) apply to the issues in the case.
- Supranational law or the law of supranational organizations, which concerns at present regional agreements where the special distinguishing quality is that laws of nation states are held inapplicable when conflicting with a supranational legal system.
Just ad Bellum (the law toward war)
- The JAB is now founded primarily upon Article 2(3) (4) and Chapter VII (Articles 39-51) of the UN Charter. Provide that:
(3) All member shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security and justice are not endangered.
(4) All member shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of forces against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.
- Jus ad bellum (Latin for "Right to wage war") see also Just War) are a set of criteria that are consulted before engaging in war, in order to determine whether entering into war is justifiable.
- The JAB governs seek to limit resort to armed force in the conduct of international relations.
Just in Bello (the law in war)
The law of war is a body of law concerning acceptable justifications to engage in war (jus ad bellum) and the limits to acceptable wartime conduct (jus in bello). The law of war is considered an aspect of public international law (the law of nations) and is distinguished from other bodies of law, such as the domestic law of a particular belligerent to a conflict, that may also provide legal limits to the conduct or justification of war.
Causes of War
- A core feature of IR and international politics is the prevalence of conflict and war, which has brought about permanent insecurity in the world.
- This has lead to a continuous preoccupation by states and societies to ensure their security and survival.
Why war?
- regarded as a human disaster, a source of misery and in the nuclear age, a threat to the entire human race.
- but not always viewed so negatively, numerous writers identified virtue in war.
- G.H.W Hegel believed war preserved the ethical health of nations
- Treitschke said, war was one of the conditions for progress, the cut of the whip that prevents a country from going to sleep.
- Theorist have studied war to abolish it
- First step towards eliminating war is to identify its causes because.
- Some argue, wars are not caused by human nature, they are caused human behavior – possible to change
Civilized societies used law, the police, schools
- State behavior used diplomacy, force, trade, aid and propaganda.
Five Causes of War
- Instinctive (naluri) versus Learned Behavior (kelakuan yg dipelajari)
- Immediate (segera) versus Underlying (tersembunyi) Causes
- Efficient (cekap) versus Permissive (permisif)
- Conscious versus Unconscious Motivates for War
- Necessary (perlu) versus Sufficient (mencukupi) Causes
Instinctive Cause
- The root cause of war is to be found in human nature(naluri semulajadi)- that aggression and violence are genetically built into human and that we do what we do because of what we are.
Learned Behavior (sikap/tingkah laku)
- Human behavior is the population of behaviors exhibited by humans and influenced by culture, attitudes, emotions, values, ethics, authority, rapport, hypnosis, persuasion, coercion and/or genetics.
- May not be possible to change human behavior by offering rewards, by making threats, education or propaganda.
Immediate Causes
- The events that trigger wars, maybe trivial, even accidental. Peristiwa-peristiwa yang mencetuskan perang-perang, mungkin remeh, malah silap
- The Assassination of Francis Ferdinand at Sarajevo (June 1914) make consequences to First World War
- The final event which led to the outbreak of the First World War took place on June 28, 1914. On that day, the Archduke Francis Ferdinand, heir to the Austrian throne, and his wife were shot dead by a young Serbian nationalist of the Black Hand at Sarajevo, the Bosnian capital .
Underlying Causes
- Is a structural interpretation in the sense that it emphasizes in the importance of international circumstances rather than deliberate state policies in causing war.
Adakah satu penafsiran struktur dalam erti kata bahawa ia menekankan dalam kepentingan keadaan antarabangsa daripada dasar-dasar pemerintahan perlahan-lahan dalam menyebabkan perang.
- It suggests that statesmen are not allow to control of events, they sometimes find themselves caught up in a process which, despite their best intentions , pushes them to war.
Eg: Gulf War
Efficient Causes
- Efficient causes are connected to the particular circumstances surrounding individual wars.
- War may result because state A has something state B wants. In this situation the efficient cause of the war is the desire of state B.
Eg: Iraq US war
Permissive Causes
- Are those features of the international system which, while not actively promoting war, nevertheless allow it to happen. Adakah ciri-ciri itu sistem antarabangsa yang, manakala bukan aktif mempromosikan perang, bagaimanapun membenarkan ia untuk berlakunya.
More focus on international system
Conscious Motivates for War
- Generally believe that war results from a calculated, purposive decision is a conscious motivates for war.
Unconscious Motivates for War
-Philosophers and scientist trying to look behind a leader’s goal oriented acts often suggest that war results from unconscious drives and weaknesses in the human psyche of which practitioners may be unaware but which nevertheless push them towards war.
Necessary Causes of War
- A necessary condition for war is one that must be present if war is to occur.
In other words, if war cannot break out without that condition existing, then it is a necessary condition.
Sufficient Causes of War
- A sufficient cause of war is one that, if present, guarantees the occurrence of war.
A is a sufficient cause of B if B always occurs whenever A exists.
The three image of war (Kenneth Waltz, 1954). A realist position
- Man – his nature – dominate other state, their resources, evil, selfish, brutal, aggressive, cannot be trusted.
Frustration Explanations of war
- Relate with human behavior.
- Aggression is a result of frustrations.
- There is a sense in which the ‘frustration/aggression, hypothesis which emphasizes the connection between violence and the failure of human being to achieve their objectives, is somewhat more optimistic than instinct theories of aggression.
Misperception Explanation of War
- Wars that result from misperceptions, misunderstanding and miscalculations by statesmen might be prevented by better communications and more accurate information.
State – nature and structure – depend on state behavior, priority/protect to the national interest – used power to become hegemonic
The international system – anarchic –there is no central government, nation with power able to do what they want
War ‘Within’ and ‘Beyond’ States
- Perang ‘Dalam' dan ‘Melebihi' Negeri-negeri
- As inter-state war has waned, intra state conflict has become more frequent
- Ethnic conflict do not easily fit the Clausewitzian model. They are particularly violent and people are often killed because of who they are rather than because of their behavior and politics.
- In the future, some writers suggest, wars may be between civilizations rather than between states or ethnic group.
The Conditions of Peace.
Improving our techniques of
- Diplomacy
- Communications
- crisis avoidance and crisis management- by developing a concept of enlightened self-interest which sensitive to the interest of others.
- Extending the scope of international law and building on existing moral constrain by learning how to manage military power-arms control.
- Strengthening cooperation through international organization and world trade
- Reducing and limiting its destructiveness.
- Some kind of peace under dictatorship-maybe worse than some kind of war. - A dictatorship is defined as an autocratic form of government in which the government is ruled by an individual, the dictator.
- Ideally, what people want is a worldwide just peace- this is an unattainable dream. -require agreement on whose justice is to prevail -require a redistributions of wealth -require religious and political movement to tolerate each other -require an end to cultural imperialist
- In short, it would require human being to behave in ways in which they never behaved.
THE CONTROL OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
- The term arms race, in its original usage, describes a competition between two or more parties for the best armed forces. Each party competes to produce larger numbers of weapons, greater armies, or superior military technology in a technological escalation.
Nowadays the term is commonly used to describe any competition where there is no absolute goal, only the relative goal of staying ahead of the other competitors. -To extend a country's military power faster than another.
- From 1891 to 1919, arms race between several Europeans countries, including Germany, France, Russia, and others took place. Specifically, Germany's envy of Britain's superior navy in the run up to world War 1I resulted in a costly building competition of dreadnought-class ships. This tense arms race lasted until June 1914, when, after two antagonize power blocs were formed because of the rivalry, the World War broke out. After the war, a new arms race developed among the victorious Allies.
- A nuclear arms race developed during the Cold war a period of high tensions between the former Soviet Union and the United States of America. On both sides, perceived advantages of the adversary (such as the ““missile gap” led to large spending on armaments and the stockpiling of vast nuclear arsenals.
Arms control is defined as:-
“Restraint internationally exercised upon armaments policy, whether is respect of the level of armaments, their character, deployment or use”
Disarmaments refers to :-
“the reduction or abolition of armaments. It may be unilateral or multilateral; general or local; comprehensive or partial, controlled or uncontrolled’
- General and comprehensive disarmament is the most extensive aim of disarmaments i.e worldwide reductions in all major catogaries of weapons
- The terms disarmament and arms control are sometime used synonymously.
- Athough they are related but it is important to differentiate the concepts based on the term ‘restraint’ and ‘reduction’
- Disarmament is about reducing the numbers whereas arms control can increase the numbers but mutually restraint by parties to the agreement
- In view of this distinction, people began to reject disarmament and prefers arms control policies.
- Disarmers are “ revolutionaries “ who wants to upturn the traditional processes of international systems
- Arms controllers are “conservative” who want to make those processes safe.
- Disarmers want safety from the threats of weapons; arms controllers seek security through better control of weapons
- Disarmers believe that military power can be radically reduced; arms controller believe that it can be successfully managed.
- Disarmers seek to abolish nuclear weapons; arms controller seek only to define their role in the structure of deterrence.
- Disarmers believe that perpetuation (prolonging) of the war system is evil and potentially catastrophic aspect of international relations; arms controllers believe this is the best of all possible worlds.
What are weapons of Mass Destruction?
- Buzan and Herring define WMD as
“weapons of which small numbers can destroy life and/or inanimate ( make dead) objects on a vast scale very quickly”
In 1948 UN Commission for conventional Armaments define WMD as
“Atomic explosive weapons, radioactive material weapons, lethal chemical and biological weapons, and any weapons developed in the future which characteristics comparable in destructive effect to those atomic bomb or other weapons mentioned above”
- On August 6, 1945, the United States used a massive, atomic weapon against Hiroshima, Japan.
- This atomic bomb, the equivalent of 20,000 tons of TNT, flattened the city, killing tens of thousands of civilians.
- While Japan was still trying to comprehend this devastation three days later, the United States struck again, this time, on Nagasaki.
Weapons Control Treaty Development
- In 1968, superpowers focused on their mutual interest trying to prohibit further nuclear proliferation
- In July 1968, NPT (Non Proliferation Treaty) was signed by nuclear countries.
- China and France refused to sign and other states rejected the treaty on the ground that it froze the nuclear status quo and incorporated only limited commitment by the nuclear powers to give up their own weapons
In 1974, India exploded its first nuclear weapon, claiming it as for peaceful purpose.
- This even further highlighted the weaknesses of the Treaty.
- In 1972, Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) I was signed between the superpowers
- The aim of SALT I was to limit missile and anti ballistic missile (ABM) deployment at specific levels to prevent unrestricted arms race which could lead to instability to the international system.
- This treaty received criticism from the US and arms control community. The treaty limits the soviet union numerical superiority but gave Soviet opportunity to compete with US in the qualitative areas (missile accuracy, placement of multiple warheads on ballistic missile), where US was in the lead.
- As a result of the SALT I short comings, in 1979 SALT II was signed
- SALT II stressed on the ceiling for the strategic delivery vehicles at 2400 with sublimits on ballistic missiles armed with Multiple Independent Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) and strategic bombers.
- However arms control process was derailed as result of Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
- SALT II was not enforced but both superpowers continue to abide with what has been agreed.
- Even with the signing of Intermediate Nuclear Force (INF) in 1987 (which banned missiles with ranges 500 and 5000km), there was growing disappointment in overall benefit of arms control
- Critics of arms control claimed, There was little evidence that arms control had helped to improve superpower relations during period of intense hostility.
- In relations to other WMD, in 1975, The Biological weapons Convention (BWC) was enforced. The convention banned the development, production, and stockpiling of biological and toxin weapons
- The convention also required parties to the treaty to destroy ” the agents, toxins and weapons equipment and means of delivery”
- The convention had problems because there was no provision for verification of compliance.
Key Points
- The late 1940s and early 1950s saw a growing disillusionment with disarmament in dealing with the problems posed by weapons of mass destruction
- The late 1950s brought “new thinking” and the development of the theory of arms control
- The aim of arms control was to make the prevailing system work more effectively
- The Cuban missiles crisis ushered a new “golden age” of arms control agreements
- In late 1970s arms control as an approach to peace and security faced increasing problems, where some people feel that the disadavantage of arms control out weight its benefit.
International Regimes on WMD
- 3 key categories of WMD (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) plus the missile delivery systems associated with them, each has an international regime devoted to their control.
1. The Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)-5th March 1970. 189 members. Only India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan did not signed.
2. Signatory are divided into Two categories :
Nuclear Weapons States (Britain, China, France, Russia and US, are committed to “pursue negotiations in good faith” on nuclear disarmament – not done
Non Nuclear Weapon states (NNWS) agree to forgo nuclear weapons entirely.
- Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)
- A multilateral treaty banning the chemical weapons
- Signed in 29th April 1997
- Currently has 164 states parties –implemented by OPCW (Organisation for the - - Prohibition of Chemical Weapons
- The treaty bans development, acquisition or possession of chemical weapon by signatories,
- Their use or preparation for use, the transfer of CW or encouragement of CW in other states,
- The BWC went into force in 1975, and 150 states to the signatories. It bans development, stockpiling, acquisition, retention and production of biological toxins and agents
END OF COLD WAR ERA
(RESIDUAL ROLE OF ARMS CONTROL)
- Ending of cold war brought about a big fuss about arms control which rebutted some of the criticism levied against arms control concept.
- 1991- START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) I was signed – besides imposing limits on increasing weapons, START reduce the number of strategic delivery vehicles and warheads through a verified process
- 1993- with the end of Cold War , START II was signed between US and Soviet Union – reducing numbers of warheads held both side.
- Although there was a indefinite extension of the NPT in 1995, continued disagreement between NWS and NNWS over the pace of disarmament still continued.
- In 1998, when India and Pakistan carried their nuclear test, demonstrated the fragility of NPT
- Attempts to control other WMD ran into difficulties at about the same time.
- There were also concerns about the proliferation of nuclear weapons as the new century came to rise
- After 9/11 there were also concerns about terrorist groups having interest in acquiring WMD.
Key Points
- The post cold war period saw flurry (sudden rush) of arms control agreement
- Despite the lessening of hostility between the United States and Russia, however, progress was slow and intermittent
- Increasingly the utility of arms control was perceived to have declined in the changed international environment which emerged especially after 9/11.
The POST Cold War ERA
- United states became dominant power in the world
- Countries who feared US hegemony or intervention in their internal affairs had an interest in developing their own “ultimate” weapons (north Korea and Iran)
- The emergence of terrorist groups like Al-Qeada, with nothing to lose attitude, to further their regional and global ambitions
- The biggest fear is weapons of mass destruction proliferated to weak states and non-states actor
- This is the new “geostrategic realities” of the post cold war
- Therefore, the attempts to control weapons of mass destruction faced new challenges, difficult to bring traditional arms control techniques and principles forward to address the new emerging threats.
- The end of cold war has brought about a new set of threats, although smaller in size, but more numerous and potentially more acute.
- According to CIA Director James Woosley: “ it was as if we were struggling with a large dragon for 45 years, killed it, and then found ourselves in a jungle full of poisonous snakes”
THE EMERGENCE OF COUNTER-PROLIFERATION
- Counter-Proliferation defined by Butcher as
“ The military component of non-proliferation, in the same way that the military is a component of foreign policy”
Definition By Davies
“the activities of the department of Defense across full range of US efforts to combat proliferation, including diplomacy, arms control, export controls and intelligence collection and analysis, with particular responsibility for assuring US forces and interest can be protected should they confront and adversary armed with WMD or missiles”
In December 1993, US Secretary of Defense Les Aspin unveiled the Defense Counter-proliferation Initiative (CPI) in relation to US Forces were threaten by potential battlefield use of WMD. The goals of CPI:
1. To deter the acquisition of WMD
2. To reverse WMD programmes diplomatically where proliferation has occurred;
3. To ensure that the US had the ’equipment, intelligence capability and strategy to deter the threat or use of WMD; and
4. To defeat the enemy armed with WMD.
- In 2004 US Joint Chief of Staff issue a statement on countering WMD , define non-proliferation as “ action to prevent the proliferation of WMD by dissuading or impeding access to, or distributing of sensitive technologies”
(cited arms control and international treaties as relevant activities)
- Counter-proliferation defined as
“ Military activities taken to defeat the threat or use of WMD, with its objective being to deter, interdict, attack, and defend against the range of WMD acquisition, development and employment situation”.
- The Bush Administration published a document in December 2002 on WMD strategy. It gave the definition of counter-proliferation with 3 key elements
1. Interdiction of WMD transfers to “hostile states and terrorist organizations”;
2. Deterrence of use,
3. Defence
- The document also states that
“ US military forces and appropriate civilian agencies must have the capacity to defend against WMD-armed adversaries, including in taking pre-emptive measures”.
Key Points
- Strategic response against WMD proliferation are those involving military means. Also means-”counter-proliferation”
- “Counter-proliferation” is of interest during the post-cold war period because of the emergence of smaller potentially more immediate threat and a sense that arms control may be of limited use
- Concern about proliferation of WMD, especially nuclear weapons, is significantly driven by a concern that they may be used to deter US-led intervention.
The Diplomatic Option : Strategic Responses Withheld?
- Preventive strategies are directed at the process of proliferation, and aim to stop the development or acquisition of WMD
- Pre-emptive strategies are directed at the deployed weapons and /or facilities, the aim is to prevent their use in war
- The dilemma over North Korea and Iran has been whether to continue with diplomatic initiatives or whether to pursue a preventive or pre-emptive strategy.
The Challenges of Counter-proliferation
There are several problems and dilemmas associated with military response to proliferation
- Concerning the definition of “counter-proliferation” – not clear. It can refer to everything from protective clothing of troops right up to air-strikes on nuclear facilities or even regime change
- The question also lies in the international regimes on WMD and the UN. The great unanswered question is : what happen in cases of non-compliance? It can be controversial
- Question of facing “imminent threat” . Problem of getting institutional agreement in UN for military operations. But constitute “imminent” threat
- If pre-emptive action to happen, it must be part of regional intervention. If this is to happen US need to ally her regional allies for the action.
Key Points
- Finding a “political” logic into which preventive or preemptive action can be fitted has not always been easy
- Pre-emptive operations tend to find their rationale and legitimacy in the context of an ongoing war such as the 1991 Gulf War
- Preventive operations find their justifying logic in the international norm surrounding WMD, eg the Proliferation Security Initiative and Isreali attack on Osirak in 1981.
Views on Arms Control-From Counter-Proliferation back to Arms Control
- From the cold war experience, arms control agreement had play some role in contributing to international security
- Arms control is rarely of decisive importance and it is not a solution in its own right
- Arms control has traditionally been a fundamentally conservative policy. Its aim is to introduce some measures of predictability into an adversarial relationship
- Therefore, arms control cannot by itself create stability or peace
- Arms control in controlling weapons is only a means to an ends, not an ends in itself
- Arms control relies on the assumption that adversarial states see a mutual interest in avoiding outright conflict.
Views on Arms Control
- Arms control was workable during the cold war because there was real confrontation
- Now without confrontation, arms control is no longer require to inject stability or predictability into a conflict
- Arms control now comes to means about how to eliminate surplus military capability i.e. ageing cold war arsenal. Therefore no longer required formal verified treaties.
Military driven responses to proliferation
- Became prominence because of the growing concerns about the declining effectiveness of deterrence and of non-proliferation efforts
- Now is about counter-proliferation option – preventive and preemptive war
- The approach requires international political legitimacy if it is to succeed i.e. to provide hard evidence that WMD are a reality or an imminent threat
- Due to the difficulties of implementing forceful counter-proliferation, international community have renewed interest in arms control.
Whether traditional arms control can re-emerge to maintain international security and control WMD remains unclear although there are some positive signs especially from the Obama administration.
The “ return to arms control “ still faces major challenges
Extract from President Obama speeach in Praque Castle , 5th April 2009
- The cold war has disappeared but thousand of WMD have not,
- The threat of global nuclear war has gone but the risk of nuclear attack has gone up
- More nations has acquired these weapons.
- We are destined to live in a world with more nations with the tools of destruction
- Having a deadly enemies
- If the spread nuclear weapons is inevitable, than the use of nuclear weapon is inevitable
- Therefore, America is committed to seek the peace and security of the world without nuclear weapons.
- There is no single approach to the problem of controlling weapons of mass destruction-(disarmament, arms control or counter-proliferation)
- Arms control (traditional treaties and new partnership arrangement) are not panacea (solution to social eveil)
- Despite the imperfection of arms control arrangement, if more consistently applied, verified and policed , can provide preventive barriers.
THE SECOND NUCLEAR AGE:
NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY
- Nuclear weapon had played an important role in the international system since their invention in 1945.
- During the cold war period between US and USSR nuclear weapons was used to prevent superpower war (under the concept of Deterrence-MADS)
- The First Nuclear Age- Between 1945-1991(the fall of USSR) and was dominated by US and USSR which first tested the nuclear weapons in 1945 and 1949 respectively
- Three other countries became the declared nuclear power during the First Nuclear Age (Great Britain, France and China).
- Today Moscow and Washington still posessess the world’s largest nuclear arsenals but the environment has changed and they do not have antagonistic relationship.
- However the international environment is said to more dangerous than it was during the cold war era.
- The World has transitioned into what is known as the Second Nuclear Age-in which weapon will proliferate horizontally to more states including very dangerous and unstable regimes.
The First Nuclear Age
- The First Nuclear test occurred on 16 July 1945 in New Mexico
- One month after, on 6 and 9 August 1945 the first Atomic were used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki-the bomb nicknamed “Little Boy” and “Fat man”
- Both were fission nuclear weapons (Nuclear fission produces energy for nuclear power and to drive the explosion of nuclear weapons
The Manhattan Project
- These were the fruit of the Manhattan Project, a massive crash program by US government, to obtain nuclear weapon before the Nazi Germany
- However in 1949 the Soviet Union tested its first nuclear weapon
- Within a few years both Washington and Moscow built fission-fusion nuclear weapons commonly known as thermonuclear weapons.
Fissile Material
- The most important fissile material is uranium 235 and plutonium 239
- These material is difficult to find. A given quantity of mined uranium contains very little U235
- Plutonium is not found in nature but a by product of nuclear processes
- Therefore the control of fissile material is very important in preventing nuclear proliferation.
Thermonuclear yield
- Nuclear yields are measure in kilotons
- Kilotons equal to thousand of tons of TNT (dynamite)
- Megatons equal to millions tons of TNT
- 5 kiloton weapon yields and explosion equal to 5,000 tons of TNT
- 2 megaton warhead explosion equals to 2,000,000 tons of TNT
- Hiroshima had only an equivalent 20,000 tons of TNT
The Birth Of Deterrence Concept
- Immediately after the bombing of Hiroshima, a great debate began over the meaning of nuclear weapons for future of international relations
- The first major text examining the impact of on nuclear weapons on world politics was by Bernard Brodie tiltled “The Absolute Weapons” than followed by plenty of other writings
- The most important writings were those concerning nuclear deterrence
- Nuclear deterrence examined how nuclear weapons could be used to prevent an opponent from undertaking an undesirable action
The Deterrence concept
- In the context of Cold War the most critical deterrence issue was deterring the Soviet Union from undertaking an invasion of Western Europe
- The strategy used was counter value threat and counterforce threat
What is countervalue Threat
- that Soviet leaders would not attack Nato (Western Europe) if they are convinced that the United States would retaliate for this action by using nuclear weapons against the Soviet Union
- i.e. something that Soviet leaders valued in this case the soviet homeland itself
What is counterforce threat
- The warning that nuclear weapons would be used against the ‘sinews”(strength/will) of state power: military forces, leadership targets, targets relevant to military command and control.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons &
Strategic Nuclear Weapons
- TNWs are delivered by means of tactical aircraft, artillery, short range missile or cruise missile
- TNW are generally use in battle against troop concentrations, ships or submarines.
- SNW usually are delivered at very long ranges by intercontinental ballistic missiles(ICBM), submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The weapons can strike deep into enemy territory thousand of miles away.
Key Point
- Nuclear Weapons have not been used in conflict since atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan in 1945
- Nuclear weapons are categorized along with Chemical, biological, and radiological devices as WMD
- Competition in building of nuclear weapons was very closely tied to the cold war between US and the Soviet Union and the theoretical models relating to deterrence that were built during the time reflect the bipolar competition between the two superpowers
- Nuclear Weapons are divided into variety of Categories-between fission and thermonuclear and between tactical and strategic weapons.
Common Terminology
- Ballistic Missiles – a missile with rocket motors which flies on a ballistic trajectory. It carry a payload of conventional or WMD warheads
- Cruise missile – A missile with air breathing motor i.e. a small, pilotless aircraft travels in subsonic speed. Bombers can be equipped to carry nuclear tipped cruise missile
- Decapitation Strike- An attack intended to destroy the leadership and command, control, and communications(3) network of an enemy
- Disarming Strike- An attack that attempts to destroy an enemy’s nuclear forces
- Fallout – radioactive debris resulting from nuclear explosion. Lighter ones travel great distance. Fallout contamination can result in serious health effects
- Triad – The combination of SLBMs, ICBMs and Nuclear-armed long range bombers that together comprise the strategic nuclear forces of the United States and Russia.
SECOND NUCLEAR AGE
- Is deterrence concepts useful in the 21st century-with the presence of “rogue” states
- Deterrence is not a panacea
- India and Pakistan appear to have a reasonably stable deterrence relationship-mutual deterrence can be said to be working well in South Asia
- Not all leaders are similar to those individuals who led the USSR during the cold war
- Deterrence theory is not infallible and that failure is entirely possible.
- The Deployment of BMD (Ballistic Missile Defence):
= Some argue that BMD would destabilize the nuclear balance between the superpowers therefore encourage both countries to build more war heads
= 1971 US and USSR sign a Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty barring each countries from constructing comprehensive national missiles defence.
- In many respect humanity is safer today than during the cold war
- That nuclear-armed powers will always be “reasonable”
- Ballistic missile defences undermine deterrence
- Arms control and disarmament treaties are the best means of counter-proliferation
First Nuclear Age Vs 2nd Nuclear Age
- Increasing unreliability of deterrence
- As nuclear weapons proliferate horizontally. - The risk of nuclear war occurring somewhere on earth can be expected to increase-states which are not good models of international citizenship
- While nuclear weapons has not been used since 1945 we should not expect that this record to continue for another 6 decades
- Not easy to predict how a country like Iran will act when it possess a nuclear weapon.
Key Point
-With The end of Cold War, the world has entered a 2nd Nuclear Age in which the number of actors possessing nuclear weapons is progressively increasing even as the absolute number is falling
- Deterrence may prove unreliable in the future. Deterrence theory was developed in the context of the struggle between US and Soviet Union may be inapplicable to powers like N.Korea and Iran
- Strategic cultures influences how a country uses its nuclear arsenal for deterrence and/or war fighting
- Ballistic Missile defences will be an important factor in nuclear decision-making in the future, and the existence of BMD may discourage some countries from attempting to acquire nuclear weapons.
The Difficulties of Assertive Disarmament
- Assertive disarmament is the use of military force to destroy proliferator’s actual nuclear arsenal or would be proliferators capability to build nuclear power weapons
- Difficult to carry out
- Costly in financial and human term for the would-be disarmer, even with good intelligence (eg North Korea and Iran issue)
A Nuclear Taboo
Taboo against the use of Nuclear (chemical and Biological) Weapons
- Use of these devices is considered disreputable and immoral states are reluctant to use the weapons
- States who uses this weapons will be outcast and despised by peers
Key Points
- Non-proliferation and counter-proliferation measures are used to control and ideally prevent the horizontal proliferation (Vertical proliferation—the increase in numbers or dispersion of nuclear weapons) by nuclear weapons states
- The NPT acknowledges only five nuclear weapons states (China, France, Great Britain, Soviet Union/Russia, and the United States) and forbids all other signatories from obtaining nuclear weapons.
- Most of the world states are signatories although some (India, Isreal and Pakistan) are not
- Effective enforcement of Universal disarmament agreements such as NPT has proven difficult, because such agreement has very weak enforcement
- It is very unlikely that nuclear weapons will become obsolescent in the next few decades, or that the world’s nuclear powers will all agree to dismantle their arsenals.
- Since 1945, nuclear weapons have played a central role in international relations, but over time that role has changed delicately
- During cold war nuclear weapons were owned by small number of states, by now the nuclear club has become far less exclusive
- The MAD world overview is now absolete
- It is likely that the proliferation of missile defences in this century will provide many states with “shield” which can be use to defence against nuclear attack by their enemies
- With all the above reasons, the second Nuclear age will differ radically from its predecessor
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