Michael C. Jensen*
I define and analyze the agency costs of overvalued equity. They explain the dramatic increase in corporate scandals and value destruction in the last five years; costs that have totaled hundreds of billions of dollars. When a firm’s equity becomes substantially overvalued it sets in motion a set of organizational forces that are extremely difficult to manage—forces that almost inevitably lead to destruction of part or all of the core value of the firm. WorldCom,
Enron, Nortel, and eToys are only a few examples of what can happen when these forces go unmanaged. Because we currently have no simple solutions to the agency costs of overvalued equity this is a promising area for future research.
In the past few years, we have seen many fine companies end up in ruins and watched record numbers of senior executives go to jail. And we will surely hear of more investigations, more prison terms, and more damaged reputations. Shareholders and society have borne value destruction in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
What went wrong? Were managers overtaken by a fit of greed? Did they wake up one morning and decide to be crooks? No. Although there were some crooks in the system, the root cause of the problem was not the people but the system in which they were operating—a system in which equity became so dangerously overvalued that many CEOs and CFOs found themselves caught in a vicious bind where excessively high stock valuations released a set of damaging organizational forces that led to massive destruction of corporate and social value. And the problem was made far worse than it had to be because few managers or boards had any idea of the destructive forces involved.
I. What is Overvalued Equity?
Equity is overvalued when a firm’s stock price is higher than its underlying value. And the problems I shall be discussing today arise not when there are small overvaluations, but when there
is
References: Aghion, P. and J.C. Stein, 2004, “Growth vs. Margins: Destabilizing Consequences of Giving the Stock Market What It Wants,” Harvard Business School Working Paper Baker, M., J.C. Stein, and J. Wurgler, 2003, “When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, 203-218 Baker, M. and J. Wurgler, 2002, “Market Timing and Capital Structure,” Journal of Finance 57, 1-32. Belson, K., 2005, “WorldCom’s Audacious Failure and Its Toll on an Industry,” New York Times, Jan. 18. Cramer, J.J., 2002, Confessions of a Street Addict, New York, NY, Simon & Schuster. Efendi, J., A. Srivastava, and E.P. Swanson, 2004, “Why Do Corporate Managers Misstate Financial Statements? The Role of Option Compensation, Corporate Governance, and Other Factors,” Texas Endlich, L., 2004, Optical Illusions: Lucent and the Crash of Telecom, New York, NY, Simon & Schuster. Fama, E.F. and K.R. French, 1992, “The Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns,” Journal of Finance 47, 427-465. Fuller, J. and M.C. Jensen, 2002, “Just Say No To Wall Street: Putting A Stop To the Earnings Game,” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 14, 41-46 Glater, J.D., 2005, “Restatements, and Lawsuits, are on the Rise,” New York Times, January 20. Graham, J.R., C.R. Harvey, and S. Rajgopal, 2005, “The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,” Journal of Accounting and Economics (Forthcoming) Harrison, J.M. and D.M. Kreps, 1978, “Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 92, 323-336. Heaton, J.B., 2002, “Managerial Optimism and Corporate Finance,” Financial Management: 31, 33-45. Holmstrom, B.R. and S.N. Kaplan, 2003, “The State of US Corporate Governance: What’s Right and What’s Wrong?” ECGI - Finance Working Paper Jensen, M.C., 1986a, “Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow: Corporate Finance and Takeovers,” American Economic Review 76, 323-329 Jensen, M.C., 1986b, “The Takeover Controversy: Analysis and Evidence,” Midland Corporate Finance Journal 4 Jensen, M.C., 1988, “Takeovers: Their Causes and Consequences,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 2, 21-48. Jensen, M.C., 1989, “Active Investors, LBOs, and the Privatization of Bankruptcy,” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 2, 35-44 Jensen, M.C., 1993, “The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit and the Failure of Internal Control Systems,” Journal of Finance 6, 831-880 Jensen, M.C., 2001, “Corporate Budgeting Is Broken: Let’s Fix It,” Harvard Business Review 79, 94-101. Jensen, M.C., 2003, “Paying People to Lie: The Truth About the Budgeting Process,” European Financial Management 9, 379-406 Jensen, M.C., 2004, “The Agency Cost of Overvalued Equity and the Current State of Corporate Finance (2002 Keynote Lecture: European Financial Management Association, London),” European Financial Jensen, M.C., K.J. Murphy, and E.G. Wruck, 2004, “Remuneration: Where We’ve Been, How We Got to Here, What are the Problems, and How to Fix Them,” Harvard NOM Working Paper Johansen, A. and D. Sornette, 2000, “The Nasdaq Crash of April 2000: Yet Another Example of LogPeriodicity in a Speculative Bubble Ending in a Crash,” European Physical Journal B 17, 319-328. Jones, C.M. and O.A. Lamont, 2002, “Short Sale Constraints and Stock Returns,” Journal of Financial Economics 66, 207-239 Kindleberger, C., 1978, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, New York, NY, Basic Books. Lamont, O.A., 2004, “Go Down Fighting: Short Seller vs. Firms,” Yale ICF Working Paper, No. 04-20. Lamont, O.A. and J.C. Stein, 2004, “Aggregate Short Interest and Market Valuations,” American Economic Review 94, 29-32 Lamont, O.A. and R.H. Thaler, 2003, “Can the Market Add and Subtract? Mispricing in Tech Stock CarveOuts,” Journal of Political Economy 111, 227-268. Available from the SSRN eLibrary at: http://ssrn.com/ abstract=249981. Martin, D., 2005, Tough Calls: AT&T and the Hard Lessons Learned from the Telecom Wars, New York, NY, Amacon. McLean, B. and P. Elkind, 2003, The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron, New York, NY, Penguin Group. Moeller, S., F.P. Schlingemann, and R.M. Stulz, 2005, “Wealth Destruction on A Massive Scale? A Study of Acquiring-Firm Returns in the Recent Merger Wave,” Journal of Finance (Forthcoming) Myers, S.C. and N.S. Majluf, 1984, “Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have Information that Investors Do Not Have,” Journal of Financial Economics 13, 187-221. Pastore, L. and P. Veronesi, 2004, “Was There a Nasdaq Bubble in the Late 1990s?” CRSP No. 557 Working Paper Polk, C. and P. Sapienza, 2004, “The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment,” Northwestern University Working Paper Shleifer, A. and R.W. Vishny, 1997, “The Limits of Arbitrage,” Journal of Finance 52, 35-55. Available from the SSRN eLibrary at: http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=225230. Shleifer, A. and R.W. Vishny, 2003, “Stock Market Driven Acquisitions,” Journal of Financial Economics, 70, 295-311 Skinner, D.J. and R.G. Sloan, 2002, “Earnings Surprises, Growth Expectations, and Stock Returns or Don’t Let an Earnings Torpedo Sink Your Portfolio,” Review of Accounting Studies 7, 289-312. Sokolove, M., 2002, “How to Lose $850 Million—And Not Really Care,” New York Times Magazine, June 9. Swartz, M. and S. Watkins, 2003, Power Failure: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Enron, New York, NY, Doubleday.