Largest City Economies of the World
III – Which are the largest city economies in the world and how might this change by 2025?
This article updates an article published in our March 2007 UK
Economic Outlook1 giving estimates for 2005 and projections to 2020 of the size of the largest 100 city economies in the world. The updated analysis and illustrative projections of GDP for different cities show how the GDP rankings of cities might change by 2025 taking into account the impact of the current economic downturn and the impact of a potential de-globalisation scenario.
Figure 3.1 – Global urban and rural population trends and UN projections
Population (billions)
7
5
4
This analysis fills this gap and provides a significantly different picture from rankings by population, with the advanced economy cities ranking much higher by GDP than by population due to their higher average income levels. Our analysis also allows us to consider how far fastgrowing cities in emerging market economies like China, India and Brazil could challenge the dominance of current leading global cities such as
New York, Tokyo, Paris and London by 2025.
The discussion below is organised as follows:
1
2
Rural
3
2
1
0
Rankings of global cities by population are common, but while population statistics are important, they are only part of the story: leading cities such as London, New
York, Paris and Tokyo are major economies in their own right, of a size greater than medium-sized national economies such as Sweden and Switzerland. Cities are also centres of innovation, creativity and culture, as well as focal points for government, finance, business services and corporate headquarters in their respective countries (and sometimes also their regions in the case of financial centres like London in Europe, or political centres like
Brussels in the EU). However, data are much less readily available on the overall size of city economies in terms of their total output,
This article updates an article published in our March 2007 UK
Economic Outlook1 giving estimates for 2005 and projections to 2020 of the size of the largest 100 city economies in the world. The updated analysis and illustrative projections of GDP for different cities show how the GDP rankings of cities might change by 2025 taking into account the impact of the current economic downturn and the impact of a potential de-globalisation scenario.
Figure 3.1 – Global urban and rural population trends and UN projections
Population (billions)
7
5
4
This analysis fills this gap and provides a significantly different picture from rankings by population, with the advanced economy cities ranking much higher by GDP than by population due to their higher average income levels. Our analysis also allows us to consider how far fastgrowing cities in emerging market economies like China, India and Brazil could challenge the dominance of current leading global cities such as
New York, Tokyo, Paris and London by 2025.
The discussion below is organised as follows:
1
2
Rural
3
2
1
0
Rankings of global cities by population are common, but while population statistics are important, they are only part of the story: leading cities such as London, New
York, Paris and Tokyo are major economies in their own right, of a size greater than medium-sized national economies such as Sweden and Switzerland. Cities are also centres of innovation, creativity and culture, as well as focal points for government, finance, business services and corporate headquarters in their respective countries (and sometimes also their regions in the case of financial centres like London in Europe, or political centres like
Brussels in the EU). However, data are much less readily available on the overall size of city economies in terms of their total output,