Los Zetas: Red Cell Analysis

The Los Zetas is a Mexican transnational criminal organization specializing in drug and human trafficking that has extended across the Texas and Arizona borders with recent expansion in the South and Midwest. They are a paramilitary group specializing in violent behavior that has crossed the Mexican/American border to include recruitment of United States young citizens. Because it is not a matter of when the Zetas will breach our border areas but how forcefully and repeatedly, a Red Cell analysis is imperative to understand their criminal mindset and predict their imminent and future intentions. Penetration beyond our borders has already occurred not only with the shipment of drugs but also by way of attacks on U.S. law enforcement and recruitment
This methodology will help reduce mirror imaging and put the analyst in the Zetas’ shoes to help prevent them from projecting their personal thoughts into the analysis. This type of analysis is typically used when the enemy’s perspective is not well understood and rationale/motives are elusive to the analyst given their personal state of mind (Tradecraft Primer, 2009, 31). Other techniques would be beneficial depending on what type of analytic question was being asked; however, some are applicable across the board. Brainstorming would be a good way to start a project and stimulate new thinking in regards to hypothesis generation and is used throughout many forums but could generate multiple ideas regarding what is known about the Zetas. Key Assumptions Check would be a great technique to use at the beginning of the Zeta effort to validate key assumptions (hypotheses believed to be true) before moving on to further analysis (Tradecraft Primer, 2009, 7). Quality of Information Check would be used to validate any sources of information about the Zetas to include how much weight to assign to the confidence of the information being provided (Tradecraft Primer, 2009,
border bringing with it drugs, human trafficking, and corruption of U.S. citizens to carry out their means. As a result, they pose a significant threat to national security and need to be dealt with effectively. Given the Zetas is a violent paramilitary group whose motivations are not in line with U.S. analysts’ perspectives, Red Cell Analysis should be used to predict the their next move without falling victim to “mirror-imaging”. Fusion cells would help sift through a myriad of information related to the Zetas and provided by a vast array of data bases and collectors. HUMINT would be the primary collector for gathering information about the Zetas but SIGINT, OSINT, and even GEOINT could be used to provide further intelligence about the group. Likewise, although Red Cell Analysis seems most fitting for predicting Zetas’ next move, other strategies (Brainstorming, Key Assumptions Check, and Quality of Information Check) could be used for most problem