Managerial Economics Advanced

PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.

Copyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

Slide 1

Qualitative Forecasts
• Survey Techniques
– Planned Plant and Equipment Spending – Expected Sales and Inventory Changes – Consumers’ Expenditure Plans

• Opinion Polls
– Business Executives – Sales Force – Consumer Intentions
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.

Copyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

Slide 2

PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.

Copyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

Slide 3

Time-Series Analysis
• Secular Trend
– Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data

• Cyclical Fluctuations
– Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction

• Seasonal Variation
– Regularly Occurring Fluctuations

• Irregular or Random Influences
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.

Copyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

Slide 4

PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.

Copyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

Slide 5

Trend Projection
• Linear Trend: St = S0 + b t b = Growth per time period • Constant Growth Rate St = S0 (1 + g)t g = Growth rate • Estimation of Growth Rate lnSt = lnS0 + t ln(1 + g)
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.

Copyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

Slide 6

PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.

Copyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

Slide 7

PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.

Copyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

Slide 8

Seasonal Variation
Ratio to Trend Method

Actual Ratio = Trend Forecast Seasonal Average of Ratios for = Adjustment Each Seasonal Period Adjusted Forecast Trend = Forecast Seasonal Adjustment
Slide 9

PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.

Copyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

PowerPoint Slides Prepared